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WinterWxLuvr

January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The setup would definitely support a long duration event somewhere. Not necessarily snow or whatever but a big precip maker in general. It's such an uncommon way to get a big winter event but the possibility exists for someone somewhere. Lol

It's intriguing from a rare event stand point. I'm extremely skeptical but as run after run continues to show a similar scenario I've begun to give more thought to what may happen. 

It seems as the pattern breaks down a peice of the PV lobe rotates around through Canada combined with ridging going up under it and  developing AK height falls. The build up of cold in western Canada has to go somewhere and some of it ejects out into the northern conus as a high comes across into the developing ridging. It's a small window, and it looks funky on h5, but if it did play out that way the surface argues it's a real threat. Yea there is an h5 disconnect but that happens sometimes. On the other hand it's complicated and weird and those are not usually ways we describe winning scenarios here. 

If big huge if, we do get that look, with a mega high over the lakes under the developing eastern ridge and lower heights to the northeast of it, the key is the strength of energy ejecting from the west. The runs that bring a strong closed system out cut. Op euro and ggem for example. Runs that eject a weaker system tend to slide east under the high. Seasonal trend may argue progressive here. Wishful thinking. 

Below is a look at the para, gfs, and euro. The overall pattern is similar. Details will decide our fate. The other is pd2. Hopefully no one takes that out of context. But it's off the top of my head a situation where the h5 alone wouldn't argue for a snowstorm. But find a way to get 1045+ highs in good spots and a lot can go right without needing a perfect pattern. I'm skeptical but mildly interested. 

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I saw that. Just showing  the obvious slow movement of that nicely placed sprawling high. A high there this time of year in prime climo with snow pack would have to verify colder imo... I'll personally take my chances with that placement ....it's all speculation for now.

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1 hour ago, Ender said:

The 1050 high is impressive, but I think the EC vs GFS evolution probably has more to do with the faster and deeper evolution of negative anomalies over Alaska Friday into Saturday along with the speed at which the EC basically evacuates the negative H5 negative anomaly over eastern Canada (Just NE of Jame's Bay on the GFS as opposed to in the Davis straight on the EC). Heights are tanking faster in AK than they are on the GFS and the rest of the H5 flow is responding quicker over eastern Canada in response. 

That and...that amazing closed H5 feature the EC has in southern NV at FH-144 as opposed to the GFS's (literally) half as strong vort, that's wide open, and proceeds to get semi-torn apart as it progresses eastward into the rising (but not as quickly as on the EC) heights east of the Rockies. The EC's aggressive height falls over Alaska explain a great deal of what it then does with the heights across Canada and CONUS. That H5 feature over NV on the EC, assuming its real, would probably do exactly what the EC is showing. 

Of course that's two very important assumptions: that heights really do drop that fast and over such a board area in AK and that the H5 mega feature in the SW is truly that impressive. 

Excellent analysis it's great to have your input lately. Thank you. 

Of all the contradictions you point out between the euro and gfs the biggest one that might determine our fate wrt snow is the strength of whatever ejects out of the west and comes east. The euro breaking down the AK ridge faster doesn't help no doubt but even given that progression it still manages to eject an anomalous strong high across the northern conus with some of what's left of the extreme cold from western Canada before it gets routed out. Even with the op euro look we even manage some ice issues for a time and even some snow up my way the last two runs. But the killer is that closed h5 low that comes across. Given the ridging in the east and no blocking if the system cuts off in the middle of the country it's going to cut, high or no high. Get a weaker system or series of waves to eject and we could "possibly" get the gfs idea. 

I also don't think this is purely gfs v euro. At that range op runs will bounce around a lot, especially in something as convoluted as this setup. It was only a few cycles ago the euro spit out the crazy para gfs idea of a big snow and the gfs was showing the cutter. Since then we have seen the ggem show it a couple times, the euro control had it last night, and a couple gfs runs and now the para. Plus there is a cluster of about 18 EPS members that get decent snow into the D.C. Area and about 7 big hits that look like the gfs. Conversely there are several euro like members within the gefs. I think they both have the same general idea but are showing the reasonable spread of solutions within the variables that neither is yet able to resolve.  

I think given our climo, the anomaly of this setup, and just law of averages, the reasonable take is a snow event is unlikely with this. But it's all we really have to look at, it's interesting from a crazy meteorology perspective, and it's persistence showing up as a threat on guidance for a while now in that window has me at least keeping an eye on it. 

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22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Mean temps are misleading at that range. Several euro members disagree on timing and or have a cutter pumping warmth up ahead. Of course if those solutions are right none of this matters. But the roughly 40% of the EPS that had a more southern solution we see at least some snow. The mean is washing the two camps out to a half way in between look. I agree it's a greatly flawed setup but not as dire as that temp profile makes it seem. 

It might be 3rd and 15 after a sack but as flawed as this setup may be I'm not punting threats until it's 4th down.

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8 minutes ago, Ender said:

Looks like the 0Z GFS might have caught on to the EC's thinking?

Maybe...? 

If the GL high could hold out for a day longer after 174...

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1 minute ago, Windman18 said:

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

CMC much improved over last run. Has the low and the high in pretty good spots. Looks like this could be a time period to keep an eye on.

Then a mess behind it coming up from the gulf. What a cluster the whole week is. Very complicated.

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15 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

If the GL high could hold out for a day longer after 174...

But it can't. Heights are rising, being forced to by upstream events...the column is expanding and warming....the arctic high is getting devoured (the little of it that's not getting shoved ENE). 

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33 minutes ago, Ender said:

Looks like the 0Z GFS might have caught on to the EC's thinking?

Maybe...? 

Maybe, snow from this setup has always been unlikely. But both the euro and gfs have been flipping around between a wet or white solution for several days now. If the gfs holds that look and so does the euro for a couple runs, plus we see the ensembles which are probably more important at this range drop the signal, then yea it's time to punt. But while I agree this is likely a wet not white end result one day 8 run of the gfs is not going to be the end all I base much on. I've over reacted to one run way too often only to see a solution flip back the next day to make that mistake again. 

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One thing that's impressed me this winter...as much as we like to criticize is the GFS a damn good model. No, It's not the Euro's equal, it tends to lag the euro by 12 - 18 hours on the "ah ha" moments that lead to a significant synoptic shift (ie up the OV as opposed to a costal) but it doesn't waiver much after it comes to that ah-ha moment. The euro, however, does a bit. It did a few times with this last system during its last seven days. Just a few cycles where it varied the track off the SE coast from Deep South to MA, while the GFS basically kept nearly the same track (though varying intensifies). Now admittedly those few times that the Euro-OP went a little wayward it had practically zero support among its ECE members. Still an impressive improvement over the bipolar GFS of just two winters ago.

Then we have the GFSX. When there's an "ah ha" moment coming, one tbat the Euro picks up on at 12Z as the GFS-OP fails to see, the GFSX will often have jumped on that idea at 6Z. It would seem that the GFSX might be with 6 to 12 hours, sometimes same cycle, on those epiphanies. I'm sure the euro is still kicking everyone else's ass on anomaly correlation, and that's obviously important, but, personally I care a hell of a lot more about practical WX IMBY as I'm rarely close enough to one of the handful of global anomaly centers to truly appreciate the full benefits of the euro's statistical edge.

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19 minutes ago, Ender said:

But it can't. Heights are rising, being forced to by upstream events...the column is expanding and warming....the arctic high is getting devoured (the little of it that's not getting shoved ENE). 

The high can't hold in that setup. We would need the boundary to push further south after the day 6 wave then have a weaker system come across and slide under. If either the boundary sets up that far northwest or the system cuts off in the miss valley then yea it's game over.   

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Gefs backed off a lot.  Unanimous trend towards a slower more amplified system that cuts up behind the high vs a weaker wave sliding under on almost all the members. 

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1 hour ago, Windman18 said:

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

CMC much improved over last run. Has the low and the high in pretty good spots. Looks like this could be a time period to keep an eye on.

Too bad it's the ggem. 

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