January 2017 Discussion & Observations

[PB GFI]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No problem. I just try to look for the peak times in 500 mb patterns. Jan 5-10 or 12 looks like it will be the coldest in the January 1-15 period.

Beyond that I have no idea how long any relaxation in the pattern will last. I will be most interested to see if we we can put together 

a decent -EPO/+PNA interval in the January 20 to February 28th time frame with the weakening La Nina. Would be nice if we could

build a bridge over the top with a -AO.

 

I didnt see the back end Dec warmth until the 5th , so I am not going to go past the 20th here .

Then was AN the 25 thru the 10 th.

The cold is coming back 5 days faster then I thought.

If we could steal a 2 week period in Jan and then have that happen , I am sure many will b happy .

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I'm surprised the SE ridge has been so strong given the weak Nina....as it weakens further we're practically in a La Nada state

It's likely the weak La Niña is only partially responsible for the SE ridge.  The last few winters going back to 12-13 the SE ridge has been an issue for extended periods in all of them 

[PB GFI]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would be nice if the EPS weeklies score a coup and the ridge pulls back later in January and that -EPO/+PNA verifies.

The CFS had gone into full weenie mode.

 

 

 

 

You will not here from CFS boy until that flips .

[Morris]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would be nice if the EPS weeklies score a coup and the ridge pulls back later in January and that -EPO/+PNA verifies.

The CFS had gone into full weenie mode.

 

 

 

Lock her up!

[SnowGoose69]

The CFS will probably switch 20 more times.  I never follow it, but from what I've seen this winter it appears to alternate between getting run out of JB and LC's basements.  It seems it's either showing 76-77 or 01-02, nothing between. 

[mikemost]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wow and only 240 hours out!

The takeaway is what's on the table at H5 from the 6th through the 10th. Most globals advertising a -WPO/-EPO -NAO pattern on both the op & ensembles. Don't need a +PNA to get a significant event. So I think the setup will be there, just need the pieces of energy to come together while we have the opportunity.

[dmillz25]

5 minutes ago, mikemost said:

The takeaway is what's on the table at H5 from the 6th through the 10th. Most globals advertising a -WPO/-EPO -NAO pattern on both the op & ensembles. Don't need a +PNA to get a significant event. So I think the setup will be there, just need the pieces of energy to come together while we have the opportunity.

Yeah people seem to forget that a -EPO/NAO with a positive PNA could leave us high and dry. The negative PNA could help us get a long duration overrunning event.

[mikemost]

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

Yeah people seem to forget that a -EPO/NAO with a positive PNA could leave us high and dry. The negative PNA could help us get a long duration overrunning event.

Agree - I think that if a shortwave develops, it may not phase. But that could still lead to a nice area wide overrunning event instead of a cut off low/narrow larger event.

[mikemost]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Classic 500 mb overrunning look.

 

 

At hour 216, I'll take this look.

[Morris]

 

[Allsnow]

To much digging out west allows the 12z euro to cut potential storm next week along the coast. South east ridge really pumps 

[mikemost]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

To much digging out west allows the 12z euro to cut potential storm next week along the coast. South east ridge really pumps 

Quicker progression - But the pacific ridge definitely looks improved on this run. Should be fun to keep an eye on this threat in the coming days.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, mikemost said:

Quicker progression - But the pacific ridge definitely looks improved on this run. Should be fun to keep an eye on this threat in the coming days.

Yep. I think slower would be better 

[mattinpa]

18z GFS back to showing a storm affecting here around day 7-8. 850s look cold enough except for LI, which may have some issues.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

18z GFS back to showing a storm affecting here around day 7-8. 850s look cold enough except for LI, which may have some issues.

Every model has a storm 

Interesting times ahead

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Every model has a storm 

Interesting times ahead

You see the EPS....man if only we weren't 8 days out lol

[bluewave]

Hopefully, the new EPS weeklies are correct about shifting to +PNA after January 20th. Fantasyland range but will be interesting to see.

[White Gorilla]

You see the EPS....man if only we weren't 8 days out lol

The nice thing about forecasting out is there is always hope, even if fantasy range often doesn't verify. At least we have a chance.


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[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Multiple thundersnow reports in MA

[CIK62]

Judah Cohen considers some possibilities here for the rest of the season:  

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Hard to tell which way he thinks we wind up.   Still says QBO wrong for a SSWE.    

[White Gorilla]

Multiple thundersnow reports in MA

I wonder if I will ever experience that again in my life.


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[Morris]

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

I wonder if I will ever experience that again in my life.


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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJt4nV6hM1Y

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJt4nV6hM1Y

Jan 27,2011 had the best ones I've experienced 

[Morris]

And the 0z GGEM tooketh away.

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, Morris said:

And the 0z GGEM tooketh away.

And the Euro

( for now )

[Googlymoogly]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Trying to get significant snow in a -PNA can often be a crapshoot. We walk a fine line between suppression with a weak wave and cutting with a strong one.

It's not easy to to get a solution right in the middle for a 3-6 snow like 12/19/09 or 12/28/90. But at least it isn't impossible, just more of a challenge.

Most of our significant snowstorms here occur when the PNA is rising back to neutral or positive especially in a La Nina. That's why we really 

need some +PNA intervals later on this winter if NYC is going to make it over 20 inches of snow on the season. The only 3 La Ninas since 1980

with a +AO in December to make it to over 20 in NYC were 08-09, 83-84, and 84-85. Those winters had +PNA and -AO intervals in JFM.

All the other Ninas finished up under 20 in NYC following a +AO December.

 

 

What did it take away?

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said:

What did it take away?

Bluewave was discussing synoptic patterns as defined by select Teleconnection Indices and snowstorms in the NYC area.

[EasternLI]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Trying to get significant snow in a -PNA can often be a crapshoot. We walk a fine line between suppression with a weak wave and cutting with a strong one.

It's not easy to to get a solution right in the middle for a 3-6 snow like 12/19/09 or 12/28/90. But at least it isn't impossible, just more of a challenge.

Most of our significant snowstorms here occur when the PNA is rising back to neutral or positive especially in a La Nina. That's why we really 

need some +PNA intervals later on this winter if NYC is going to make it over 20 inches of snow on the season. The only 3 La Ninas since 1980

with a +AO in December to make it to over 20 in NYC were 08-09, 83-84, and 84-85. Those winters had +PNA and -AO intervals in JFM.

All the other Ninas finished up under 20 in NYC following a +AO December.

 

 

That one was 3-6" in NYC? That was a crusher out here. 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

That one was 3-6" in NYC? That was a crusher out here. 

I meant December 08...that was a typo..