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dmillz25

January 2017 Discussion & Observations

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As January progresses, the PDO+ may well contribute to an increased tendency for PNA+ ridging. During the January 1950-2016 period, PDO- values coincided with PNA- troughs 62% of the time. In contrast, PDO+ values coincided with PNA+ ridges 73% of the time. So far, that hasn't been the case this January, but the fading La Niña could allow for the more typical PDO+/PNA+ pattern to develop and then take hold.

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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

As January progresses, the PDO+ may well contribute to an increased tendency for PNA+ ridging. During the January 1950-2016 period, PDO- values coincided with PNA- troughs 62% of the time. In contrast, PDO+ values coincided with PNA+ ridges 73% of the time. So far, that hasn't been the case this January, but the fading La Niña could allow for the more typical PDO+/PNA+ pattern to develop and then take hold.

 

Don , the weeklies are so good , they may be hard to buy .

However the real warm up looks to fall between the 17th and 24th / with the trough back by the 25th 

But we may start and end the warmup with bookend snowstorms if the EPS is to be believed .

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6 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Don , the weeklies are so good , they may be hard to buy .

However the real warm up looks to fall between the 17th and 24th / with the trough back by the 25th 

But we may start and end the warmup with bookend snowstorms if the EPS is to be believed .

At this timeframe, I believe it's good that there are indications of a pattern change, especially as it's something that might be more likely on a statistical basis. Sometimes the guidance rushes such changes, so if the change occurs a few days later, that wouldn't be too surprising. 

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I hope the last week of January right through the first week of March really kicks a$$ for cold and snow. It amazes me we may still be able to get snow and ice even during our warmer periods, quite impressive.

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12 hours ago, doncat said:

You can see how that didn't happen here...Winds were just strong enough to prevent optimal cooling...

Screenshot (46).png

 

Yep. It's incredible the difference that results w/ a 1-2mph light wind versus calm. I've always loved clear, calm radiational cooling nights with fresh snow cover. The temperature plummets. It's like having the effect of sandy soils, but an even more effective radiator of energy.

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15 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

8.1F here already.

Highs the past few days were 26F, 24F, and 22F today. Mean of 11.6F today for me.

Down to 8 now. Cold night 

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37 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Burn wood up here in the mountains, no heat bill :)

Nice, I've always liked wood stoves.  What do you burn?

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10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Vermont casting defiant 

 They're nice. 

I've noticed that people around here tend to burn cheap wood in their stoves for some reason.

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Just now, JerseyWx said:

 Cool.  I've noticed that people around here tend to burn cheap wood for some reason.

I cut my wood down, it's my only source of heat so it doesn't pay for me to use cheap wood... I have 26 acres so I cut oak

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I cut my wood down, it's my only source of heat so it doesn't pay for me to use cheap wood... I have 26 acres so I cut oak

Makes sense, I'd like to cook on mine as well.

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6 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Makes sense, I'd like to cook on mine as well.

My stove was really expensive, problem iscooking splatters grease depending on what your cooking, and it's a bit** to clean so it smokes every time you light it.... boils water in about 2 min though, so that's nice 

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9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

My stove was really expensive, problem iscooking splatters grease depending on what your cooking, and it's a bit** to clean so it smokes every time you light it.... boils water in about 2 min though, so that's nice 

Yeah, I can imagine that would be a problem.  Definitely a nice investment though.

I'm down to 11° here.

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10 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

I posted them away . wow Chris .

They work thru week 3 .

Lete hope 3 and 4 verify this time .

 

The weeklies did a great job forecasting the -EPO/+PNA patterns during the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. The only knock against them was they didn't

see the depth of the trough in the East. But this time they have a -EPO/+PNA with a clear trough in the East. If week 3 and beyond actually verify,

then this could be the extended cold that has been missing since last winter. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

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