packbacker Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, griteater said: I see talk of ridges and troughs and stratospheric warmings and euro weeklies, etc, but I haven't seen anyone expecting/forecasting a blockbuster Feb. Where is that coming from? I am not expecting a blockbuster by any means but I don't see one of these Feb's yet. Though even Feb 2012 had snow, would take a repeat of that in a heartbeat. Though at end of Dec I certainly didn't think Jan would end up this warm either...LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 I sure as heck wouldn't be as cold as JB is showing for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 36 minutes ago, packbacker said: Not surprised the "consistent" EPS weeklies caved. Nice snowy run by the the 18z GEFS. The weeklies had been very consistent for the past several runs. I am not surprised with the way the eps run went that the weeklies went that way with the eps. It would not surprise me if February was a bit up and down with the pattern reloading. There is still a lot a variables that are in play and all it would take is one decent storm to make most happy which most have seen especially in NC. the 18z gfs in the H5 looked a lot like Joe B map. Not that I think that look will be consistent from top to bottom. As for winter cancel, I don't see it at all. But it depends on the outlook you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: I am not expecting a blockbuster by any means but I don't see one of these Feb's yet. Though even Feb 2012 had snow, would take a repeat of that in a heartbeat. Though at end of Dec I certainly didn't think Jan would end up this warm either...LOL. To the casual hobbyist such as myself, it seems like the January warmth kind of snuck up on us. We knew early Jan would be a little mild, then we got a legitimate cold shot and then BAM. On a continental scale, what is driving this right now? The NAO is slightly negative; the AO is slightly positive, and the PNA is slightly positive. As indexes go that is not a horrible place to be. I know there is a resilient SER but it's not just the SE right now. Cold air is routed out of pretty much all of North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 The 12Z para looks much , much more like the expected outcome of our February 2-4th storm!! 998 low in Missouri, snow line above Chicago! Lakes cutter to kick off Fab Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: You prefer somewhere over the Amazon river basin? No I mean it is too far NORTH. I still wouldn't trust it. Needs to be somewhere near the south pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 For anyone saying the weeklies are bad, food for thought: You wouldn't want to see a GFS version. You know how wrong that thing would be? That would truly be something...and no, the CFS is not the GFS Weeklies. Us Americans are too scared to develop such an ensemble system that far out, we'd be the laughing stock of the global modeling world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Can someone explain to me what exactly the "weeklies" are? Some sort of variant of the euro apparently. How do they differ from the regular model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 27 minutes ago, packbacker said: I sure as heck wouldn't be as cold as JB is showing for Feb. That's not that cold. 1-2 degrees below normal for most of NC,SC,GA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Can someone explain to me what exactly the "weeklies" are? Some sort of variant of the euro apparently. How do they differ from the regular model? The Euro runs out to Day 10 (240hrs) the EPS (ensemble prediction system) is the 51 member Ensemble mean of the Euro that runs out to 15 days. After Day 10 it's at a lower resolution. The weeklies are just an extension of the EPS run out to 46 days that's released every Thursday and Monday. It's actually called the Euro Monthly (because a few years ago it only ran out to 32 days), but it's called the weeklies because many model sites (WSI for example) display the output of the data in a weekly format (in 7 day chunks through 46 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: That's not that cold. 1-2 degrees below normal for most of NC,SC,GA ? In this winter, that's like the Arctic circle. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: In this winter, that's like the Arctic circle. I'll take it! Well, it sure beats the 8-9 degrees above normal ATL has had so far this month ! Just imagine the departures if not for the cold snap earlier this month. We'd probably be looking at +15 for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 hours ago, CaryWx said: Ok I'm going to ask a question here that may bring a chorus of hiss & jeers. Can anyone tell me what the Farmers Almanac says for February in the southeast? i know that's probably like going to a Trek Convention and saying; "Hey I really thought the Wesely character in NG was awesome!" Ok, so just make sure when you go to the Trek convention to tell everybody you really liked the time when Spock crashed the Millenium Falcon into the Genesis planted. They'll love that. Here is the Old Farmer's Almanac for you (looks like JB went with the Almanac for his Feb forecast!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 24 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: That's not that cold. 1-2 degrees below normal for most of NC,SC,GA ? Considering you are gonna finish Jan,+10 or +12, in the metropolis of Dalhonega, I'd call it a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Considering you are gonna finish Jan,+10 or +12, in the metropolis of Dalhonega, I'd call it a win These past 2 winters have been crazy. Last winter the warmest December on record, this winter the warmest January on record ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Ok, so just make sure when you go to the Trek convention to tell everybody you really liked the time when Spock crashed the Millenium Falcon into the Genesis planted. They'll love that. Here is the Old Farmer's Almanac for you: March 18-19th = JB money! Somebody start the thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: March 18-19th = JB money! Somebody start the thread! You don't have to be lonely at farmersonly.com First of Feb. still looks like the ticket, 18z GFS had our clipper and a southern slider. No NE highs or blocking, but hey, blocking is a myth at this point. Decent pattern + fantasy storms, we can work out the details later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Thanks CR. Calls for snow but mid-month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 33 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Thanks CR. Calls for snow but mid-month Now we know where NWNCWX aka Wilks aka Timmy Clydesdale gets his time frame from! Btw, I translate "snow inland" to "congrats, Big Frosty!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: No we know where NWNCWX aka Wilks aka Timmy Clydesdale gets his time frame from! Btw, I translate "snow inland" to "congrats, Big Frosty!" Lol this is great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Robert at WxSouth says a very cold, very dry period coming up late Jan/early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, JoshM said: You don't have to be lonely at farmersonly.com First of Feb. still looks like the ticket, 18z GFS had our clipper and a southern slider. No NE highs or blocking, but hey, blocking is a myth at this point. Decent pattern + fantasy storms, we can work out the details later. I feel like we should get together and crowd source some sort of research into the disappearance of high-latitude blocking. I mean is someone working on this? Weather weenies need to know what makes the NAO tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 0z GFS = moneyyyyyyyyyy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Baby steps! 6z GFS still has Groundhog Day system, snow for some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Nice setup little more north and more moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Gets is showing cold 26 thru 30th so far in the eaSt model run not finishedyet tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Before the snow we still need our pattern change. RAH now mentioning this in their long range discussion: Tue through Thu: Mid level heights rise over the Southeast as a mid level ridge axis shifts over the region, while surface high pressure crosses the northern Gulf and FL. Expect fair skies Tue/Wed with slightly cooler but still above normal temps. The aforementioned pattern change will begin late Wed night or Thu morning (ECMWF brings a cold front through earlier than the GFS) as a strong EPactrough this weekend shifts eastward and begins to tap into cooler polar air that has been bottled up well to our north. Expect highs back down into the 50s Thu. A few showers are possible with the coldfront, although will keep pops on the low side given the significant model timing differences. -GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 6z GEFS individual members. Control in the upper left would be fine with a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, Jon said: 6z GEFS individual members. Control in the upper left would be fine with a lot of folks. ill take E5,ec e8 e9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 9 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Now we know where NWNCWX aka Wilks aka Timmy Clydesdale gets his time frame from! Btw, I translate "snow inland" to "congrats, Big Frosty!" Thank you, Rain Cold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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