mackerel_sky Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Take heart, Pack. 348 bringeth the goods! Nice to get an early start on getting all the cold air on the wrong side of the globe! It can't stay there for 5 months straight!??? signed, Bathtub slosh theory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Nice to get an early start on getting all the cold air on the wrong side of the globe! It can't stay there for 5 months straight!??? signed, Bathtub slosh theory! LOL: Thats a classic quote/post if there ever was one right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 That trough looks progressive. But at least it's a trough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 13 hours ago, WidreMann said: That trough looks progressive. But at least it's a trough! Hopefully the overall pattern will turn for the better. Current indices do show some hope: PNA - Finally looks to go towards neutral in the LR AO - Looks to go negative in the LR NAO - Looks to go negative in the LR This has been a long stretch of -PNA, +AO, and +NAO. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 29 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Hopefully the overall pattern will turn for the better. Current indices do show some hope: PNA - Finally looks to go towards neutral in the LR AO - Looks to go negative in the LR NAO - Looks to go negative in the LR This has been a long stretch of -PNA, +AO, and +NAO. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Good, especially the NAO. It's usually the other way going into the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Good, especially the NAO. It's usually the other way going into the winter. I want to see a +PNA this winter as well. We've been lucky to keep it mostly + for the last couple of years. Seems like when we have a -PNA we have no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Nice snow build up over Canada during the next 10 days. The more snow up there, the colder the air once it pushes southwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 The last time Charlotte had a below normal monthly average temperature was in January 2016. That streak looks to continue for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Fab Feb book it warm now doesn’t worry me. Slosh theory isn’t without some merit. You usually get swings, maybe the cold swings down and stays a while when we need it in late December - Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 7 hours ago, FallsLake said: Nice snow build up over Canada during the next 10 days. The more snow up there, the colder the air once it pushes southwards. Maybe we can chill down to the upper 70s by November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 34 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Fab Feb book it warm now doesn’t worry me. Slosh theory isn’t without some merit. You usually get swings, maybe the cold swings down and stays a while when we need it in late December - Feb. Some of our biggest snows have came in March ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Wouldn't it be funny if we still end up with frost/freezes during the next couple of weeks. I guess it would be a shock to everybody's system. 6z GFS dew points for day 12 (this would be the second major cold front during this period): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 It'll happen. Avg day of 1st frost is OCT 20th ish this area. It's absurdly warm humid for this time of year but it's just a by product of the pattern we are in. Seen it upper 70s near 80 in early November before for 5 to 10 day stretches. Thanks to some wedge back door front, this heat wave is shutting down after today. Sun into Mon could warm up some, but this is the end. Back to our regularly scheduled Fall after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 It's really gross out there today, low 80s and 110% humidity. Luckily the end of the pattern is in sight, the Mon night cold front looks like to be the real deal. Going down from mid 80s to mid 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Water....like....crazy. Its been so dang dry that many folks here in the piedmont just now put out seed thinking it would be wet this week. Ugh, no! You have about 2 weeks left to water in that seed and get it to germinate or lose that $50-$100 you spent. What a horrible summer this was, and if we end up with a wet and mild winter the whole state of NC will be nothing but moss and clover. On a bright note, those mid40s showing up in 5 days for northern NC and into the foothills will feel awesome!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 2 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Water....like....crazy. Its been so dang dry that many folks here in the piedmont just now put out seed thinking it would be wet this week. Ugh, no! You have about 2 weeks left to water in that seed and get it to germinate or lose that $50-$100 you spent. What a horrible summer this was, and if we end up with a wet and mild winter the whole state of NC will be nothing but moss and clover. On a bright note, those mid40s showing up in 5 days for northern NC and into the foothills will feel awesome!! The way this winter is looking, you could put out seed Dec-Feb , and it would germinate! May have to continue to water, Ninas aren't known for their wetness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 22 hours ago, Eric said: The last time Charlotte had a below normal monthly average temperature was in January 2016. That streak looks to continue for the foreseeable future. Check August and September . Pretty sure our airport(pti) was below for both month or atleast 1 of them I'd look for both of us but busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Check August and September . Pretty sure our airport(pti) was below for both month or atleast 1 of them I'd look for both of us but busy. KCLT August +0.8 September +1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Eric said: KCLT August +0.8 September +1.6 Gotcha. GREENSBORO August -0.8 September 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 At least we are finally starting to see some signals that the NAO is trending negative after mid month: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 27m27 minutes ago Kinda a busy slide, but we needed to add a few graphics to explain what's up with the introduction of Moderate Drought into Central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: At least we are finally starting to see some signals that the NAO is trending negative after mid month: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Sadly, after a few days of fall weather, it's back to a pattern that blows!! Blowtorches that is! #WINNINGFALL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice 41m41 minutes ago Latest ECMWF EPS calling for ridge amplification o/the eastern U.S. late next week. Another round of unseasonably warm temperatures expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 7 hours ago, Solak said: Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice 41m41 minutes ago Latest ECMWF EPS calling for ridge amplification o/the eastern U.S. late next week. Another round of unseasonably warm temperatures expected EURO tends to overdo eastern ridges in the long term. Hopefully it's a more "normal" warm period than astronomically so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 The long-range Euro is bad, but it hints that we could have a better pattern thereafter. The really annoying west coast/AK super-low that's been plaguing us the past month looks like it'll retrograde and weaken some. There may be a ridge building along the west coast. So perhaps in the 12-16 day time period, we'll have more troughiness, or at least normal, in the east. The GFS does show the development of significant troughing in the east in that time period, with what could be the beginning of a -NAO with the ridge developing over the far NE of North America. Whether this comes to fruition, I have no idea. The nice thing about the ridging return is that instead of 591-594 with a solid ridge, we are more on the edge, and the ridge strength is generally more in the lower 580s. So it'll be abnormally warm, but not as bad, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 well monday looks amazing, a shot at upper 50s for highs (whiich will feel frigid after the past few weeks of heat) and then mid 40s for lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 31 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: well monday looks amazing, a shot at upper 50s for highs (whiich will feel frigid after the past few weeks of heat) and then mid 40s for lows. Yep, highs near 70 Monday - Wednesday, lows in the low 50's. Gonne be real nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 1 hour ago, DopplerWx said: well monday looks amazing, a shot at upper 50s for highs (whiich will feel frigid after the past few weeks of heat) and then mid 40s for lows. Our high will probably occur at mid=night (~70 for both our areas); but it would be nice to see temps drop into the 50s during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Today isnt exactly setting the furnace on fire: 3:43 pm and its 62 degrees with a North wind @ 10mph Greensboro with thick deck of clouds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 2 hours ago, DopplerWx said: well monday looks amazing, a shot at upper 50s for highs (whiich will feel frigid after the past few weeks of heat) and then mid 40s for lows. Yeah, 71 for a high, I'm gonna have to find the long johns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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