Lookout Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 9:51 AM, Cold Rain said: Just eyeballing that map, it looks like a 2x to 3x warm to cold anomaly ratio. We are cooking! no worries, all we need is several massive volcanic eruptions to put us back to..............normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: no worries, all we need is several massive volcanic eruptions to put us back to..............normal. For a good start, look NE: http://www.travelerstoday.com/articles/38640/20170211/icelands-four-volcanoes-showing-signs-activity-scientists-predict-volcanic-eruptions.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Also, the 12z CMC just obliterates NorCal over the next 10 days. 12z GFS isn't as robust, but it's more than its 0z and 6z runs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Also, the 12z CMC just obliterates NorCal over the next 10 days. 12z GFS isn't as robust, but it's more than its 0z and 6z runs: Any chance that moisture make it our way? We could use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Any chance that moisture make it our way? We could use it. Not really. Our source of moisture will come from the SW/Gulf. Part of those excessive totals in CA are due to orographic processes. Here's the 12z GFS QPF through D10 for the CONUS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 8 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: JB- winter will attack the first 3 weeks of March! Big finish for us Mack Keep the faith........... A significant cold period is on the way, and this may trend even colder. It is bookended tho by the front warmth and the cold will likely pull back to the west to end March. There are some big-hitting analogs on the table here, and since the Euro went toward the JMA, that Thursday MJO comparison is likely a pretty good hint for us going forward. It was colder this morning and foretold the Euro. The MJO is showing a more bullish cold idea. Oh my goodness, Not sure we can handle this MJO thingy???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: Big finish for us Mack Keep the faith........... A significant cold period is on the way, and this may trend even colder. It is bookended tho by the front warmth and the cold will likely pull back to the west to end March. There are some big-hitting analogs on the table here, and since the Euro went toward the JMA, that Thursday MJO comparison is likely a pretty good hint for us going forward. It was colder this morning and foretold the Euro. The MJO is showing a more bullish cold idea. Oh my goodness, Not sure we can handle this MJO thingy???? Heard big cold was coming for the last 3 months!!? Maybe the 3 days below normal in January counted???? So he nailed his forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 March 1960, we get it! $$$$$$$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: March 1960, we get it! $$$$$$$$$ 1993 but further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Heard big cold was coming for the last 3 months!!? Maybe the 3 days below normal in January counted???? So he nailed his forecast! Of course Big Cold now is highs in the 50s with full sun and lows in the 30s on a clear night ........................... lol JB- is Champion of the Long Range again!!! The dude can't miss............. Hey we'll get'em next winter (if there is a winter again) you just wait and see Charlie Brown!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 As warm as it's been, and as warm and the next 10 days are being advertised, logic (which doesn't exist this winter) would suggest everything would flip eventually. Even if it's summer time, but I'm afraid a wet wedge filled miserable spring is on our horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 16 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Of course Big Cold now is highs in the 50s with full sun and lows in the 30s on a clear night ........................... lol JB- is Champion of the Long Range again!!! The dude can't miss............. Hey we'll get'em next winter (if there is a winter again) you just wait and see Charlie Brown!!! The world is warming regardless if you think it's man caused or not. Looks to me like cold winters will continue to be hard to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Just now, LithiaWx said: The world is warming regardless if you think it's man caused or not. Looks to me like cold winters will continue to be hard to find. But with climate change comes extreme. I can see some snowy winters in our futures, but it'll be 70s and 80s when it isn't a cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 minute ago, JoshM said: But with climate change comes extreme. I can see some snowy winters in our futures, but it'll be 70s and 80s when it isn't a cold winter. Mini ice age say screw global warming! The world is cyclical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Mini ice age say screw global warming! The world is cyclical Deep down I want a mini ice age, but then when I go to the grocery store and see the produce prices, I'll want warm back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 59 minutes ago, JoshM said: But with climate change comes extreme. I can see some snowy winters in our futures, but it'll be 70s and 80s when it isn't a cold winter. Agreed! My view is the same. We will get wild extremes in the process. Cold winters will still happen and some of them will be extreme. IMO the odds go up for warmer winters but also bigger winter storms during cold and warm winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 7 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said: Big finish for us Mack Keep the faith........... A significant cold period is on the way, and this may trend even colder. It is bookended tho by the front warmth and the cold will likely pull back to the west to end March. There are some big-hitting analogs on the table here, and since the Euro went toward the JMA, that Thursday MJO comparison is likely a pretty good hint for us going forward. It was colder this morning and foretold the Euro. The MJO is showing a more bullish cold idea. Oh my goodness, Not sure we can handle this MJO thingy???? Don't fall for this. Analogues are almost useless. LOL at the fall analogues saying 95-96. This year couldn't have been more opposite. We think it every year, but the unending warmth this year is truly unprecedented in my lifetime. A few cool downs to normal then right back up to April and even May. I know it's TWC, but just to illustrate the point, it's 15 day forecast has my lowest high at 65 and only one low below 43. This was a one and done winter outside the mtns. One bona fide cold period and a well timed system delivered for some. I was lucky to get a 3 incher from this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 10 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Don't fall for this. Analogues are almost useless. LOL at the fall analogues saying 95-96. This year couldn't have been more opposite. We think it every year, but the unending warmth this year is truly unprecedented in my lifetime. A few cool downs to normal then right back up to April and even May. I know it's TWC, but just to illustrate the point, it's 15 day forecast has my lowest high at 65 and only one low below 43. This was a one and done winter outside the mtns. One bona fide cold period and a well timed system delivered for some. I was lucky to get a 3 incher from this winter. Meanwhile the west coast gets all the action. Flooding rains in cali, snow in the mountains and snow in Washington and Oregon over and over agin this season. It wa s just their year....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 12 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Don't fall for this. Analogues are almost useless. LOL at the fall analogues saying 95-96. This year couldn't have been more opposite. We think it every year, but the unending warmth this year is truly unprecedented in my lifetime. A few cool downs to normal then right back up to April and even May. I know it's TWC, but just to illustrate the point, it's 15 day forecast has my lowest high at 65 and only one low below 43. This was a one and done winter outside the mtns. One bona fide cold period and a well timed system delivered for some. I was lucky to get a 3 incher from this winter. It's more than I got here in MA. Truly unforgettable fail for us. Still despite all that and the incredible persistence of warm I still think there will be one cold period in March that will give us both a Hail Mary end of winter. We shall see. Today's GFS laughs at my idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 I guess JB will be right if he thinks it will be cold in the west. Will be interesting to see if we have another low below freezing. For RDU it looks like Feb 14th has the potential to be the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Typical nina winter...first half was cooler then the 2nd half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Pretty much following the worst of the worst nina winters...those spelled warm Marches. JB has lost it, hard to believe he thinks the east will be BN in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Interesting...you roll forward the winters following these crappy nina's....still warm. #lageffect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 It's never going to be cold again, Pack. Just get used to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: I guess JB will be right if he thinks it will be cold in the west. Will be interesting to see if we have another low below freezing. For RDU it looks like Feb 14th has the potential to be the last. My peach trees are blooming. That's nearly a full month early. I can almost guarantee that we'll get at least one cold shot (lows < mid 20s) between now and mid April. When that happens there could/will be major damage to our agriculture sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, packbacker said: Typical nina winter...first half was cooler then the 2nd half. And yet the first half was still above normal across much of the south. I wonder if places like Orlando and Tampa even had a freeze this winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: And yet the first half was still above normal across much of the south. I wonder if places like Orlando and Tampa even had a freeze this winter ? Can't speak for them, but we did get a 23º one night and had 9 freezes - which is abysmal .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 minute ago, pcbjr said: Can't speak for them, but we did get a 23º one night and had 9 freezes - which is abysmal .... I looked it up. The coldest Orlando got was 36 ! That's just crazy. Atlanta only had 15 freezes. I wonder what the record is for fewest freezes in a season for Atlanta ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: It's never going to be cold again, Pack. Just get used to it. Looks bleak, that's for sure. Allan tweeted out how this winter has a chance to finish 2nd warmest behind 31/32. Well 1933-36 was very snowy. And after 98/99 Nina we went through 2000-2004, a pretty good stretch. These snowy analogs eventually will be right...don't they ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Looks bleak, that's for sure. Allan tweeted out how this winter has a chance to finish 2nd warmest behind 31/32. Well 1933-36 was very snowy. And after 98/99 Nina we went through 2000-2004, a pretty good stretch. These snowy analogs eventually will be right...don't they ? My God that map looks abysmal for 95% of the country. Unless you live in the Carolinas or the Arklatex area that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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