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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

That's a monster low up in Canada ! Shouldn't that be pressing cold or making confluence or something? Just grasping here!

You can see from that map the higher heights sprawling to the SE, we want a tall ridge in the west with low heights in the east, otherwise we will get all northern stream energy storms.

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1 minute ago, shahroz98 said:

I feel like there could be a chance for ATL in March if the PNA ridge verifies. Most of the heavy snow events happens in late Feb into March. 1983,1993,2009 were all 5+ inches.

Larry made some great posts about how early Feb has hardly any good snowfalls for a lot of the SE! The majority, for whatever reason, seem to be after the 12th or so, in February 

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So just building up all the posts over the last couple of pages, we generally either get a raining cutter, due to lack of cold air or a raining suppressed system, due to lack of cold air or a lot of nothing, along with a lack of cold air.  Seems like a pretty easy diagnosis on our problem here.  That about right?

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5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

So just building up all the posts over the last couple of pages, we generally either get a raining cutter, due to lack of cold air or a raining suppressed system, due to lack of cold air or a lot of nothing, along with a lack of cold air.  Seems like a pretty easy diagnosis on our problem here.  That about right?

Pretty much.

Unless there is cold air.

Pretty much.

Don't see cold air ....

 

and then Jon posts to give some much needed hope!

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9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

So just building up all the posts over the last couple of pages, we generally either get a raining cutter, due to lack of cold air or a raining suppressed system, due to lack of cold air or a lot of nothing, along with a lack of cold air.  Seems like a pretty easy diagnosis on our problem here.  That about right?

That's why you are not a Dr! ;)

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32 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

So just building up all the posts over the last couple of pages, we generally either get a raining cutter, due to lack of cold air or a raining suppressed system, due to lack of cold air or a lot of nothing, along with a lack of cold air.  Seems like a pretty easy diagnosis on our problem here.  That about right?

Just looking at the GFS, there would be adequate cold air to our north. We just need to see stronger highs to help push in and hold more cold. Still possible to trend towards that, at this range, but again I'm not overly optimistic right now.   

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2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Just looking at the GFS, there would be adequate cold air to our north. We just need to see stronger highs to help push in and hold more cold. Still possible to trend towards that, at this range, but again I'm not overly optimistic right now.   

I think there is a good signal showing up for a possible storm 10 to 15 days out. Really reminds me of how the models usually pick up on storms this far out, with some being too far north like the GFS has and some.too far south like the Euro shows, and then often they shift as we get closer and meet in the middle. We are seeing some members of the GFS ensembles showing snow here. Just have to wait and see if the models shift this time like they have often done before.

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