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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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Don't focus on individual GFS runs...remember this is the same model whose ensembles just caved to all other modeling. There's going to be cold...if anything you need to worry about suppression. The EPS has -9.5C 850 anomalies over central Alabama spreading east Day 12. The mean 0c line is in northern Florida. Not the border. IN Florida.


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1 minute ago, Jon said:

Don't focus on individual GFS runs...remember this is the same model whose ensembles just caved to all other modeling. There's going to be cold...if anything you need to worry about suppression. The EPS has -9.5C 850 anomalies over central Alabama spreading east Day 12. The mean 0c line is in northern Florida. Not the border. IN Florida.

Pretty map, Jon?  LOL (Check your PM)

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Weeklies just tweeted out.  Not sure that's the greatest look for the SE though but Met1985 says they should be trusted.

 

Ouch throwing Met's name out huh? Coming from same guy who bought into a model that flipped back literally that night to the EPS? Christ man have a snickers! GEFS may end up with the right idea, but it was the EPS that sniffed it out first - remember that when comparing later. GEFS was screaming torch yesterday.

Also, I'll add he Weeklies if you have access to the individual weeks are amazing thru Day 18. Amazing. And I'm no math expert but the tweet text "weeks 3-4" doesn't seem to match up with the map date range.

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4 minutes ago, Jon said:


Ouch throwing Met's name out huh? Coming from same guy who bought into a model that flipped back literally that night to the EPS? Christ man have a snickers! GEFS may end up with the right idea, but it was the EPS that sniffed it out first - remember that when comparing later. GEFS was screaming torch yesterday.


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Stop trolling...your better then that, or maybe not.  I would explain to you why the GEFS was showing what it was showing but not sure your smart enough to understand.  I posted the LR ensemble means, we will see who wins over the next few days.  

EPS - Pac low, stout +PNA

GEFS - Pac ridge building poleward and retrograding trough pulled back west.

I haven't said a word to you, you came after me, take your snickers and shove it up your....

 

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14 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Can we disagree without being disagreeable?

Please yes.  Two of the primaries on this board relied on to provide insight and analysis spitballing

 That last exchange reminded me of Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughan from Wedding Crashers arguing about having to spend a weekend at the Treasury secretary's Potomac home :lol:

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Please yes.  Two of the primaries on this board relied on to provide insight and analysis spitballing

 That last exchange reminded me of Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughan from Wedding Crashers arguing about having to spend a weekend at the Treasury secretary's Potomac home :lol:


Clearly frustrated. I apologize to Pack for that. Agree to disagree, we are all here for one thing and that's a nice SE winter.


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8 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Some people just love those weeklies...LOL.  They really nailed January, LOL.

 

I believe that was all of one week they showed that however and they rapidly began backtracking the next time they came out.  I don't think it was anywhere near as consistent as this 

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23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I believe that was all of one week they showed that however and they rapidly began backtracking the next time they came out.  I don't think it was anywhere near as consistent as this 

They have been consistent and CFS actually shows some agreement.  I don't blindly clutch on to the EPS/weeklies, I know you don't either.  

The last week prior to start of the modeled month has been pretty good as of late.  Be nice if they keep this up heading into end of next week.  

 

IMG_3971.GIF

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9 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Did anyone see this as being a possible all time warmest January back in December ? Did any models hint at that ?

There's still a half a month to go. Hell, my NWS can't get it right 48 hours out. It's an interesting ride, no doubt, but there may be an unexpected bump before the end of the road this month.

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Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Atlanta was actually BN for the month a week ago and now they are 6-7 AN and probably 10 AN in a few more days.

Greensboro is 1.2 above normal as of today. Definetly will end up above normal for Jan, but the pattern flips in 8 days and will be normal to below the last 4 or 5 days of the month. So it want come near to record above normal here when it gets avg out after 31 days, but should wind up +3 long stretch +4.

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3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Atlanta was actually BN for the month a week ago and now they are 6-7 AN and probably 10 AN in a few more days.

It doesn't look like they'll finish top 3 when I was looking at it yesterday.  They may be around 3rd or 4th Sunday but I think the final 6/7 days will take them out of contention.  There are some insanely warm January's from the 1930s and 1950s

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