Met1985 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Good luck with that. Let's post them up and see who wins....differences are glaring. EPS is all in with PAC low and +PNA and GEFS goes back to a more nina look with poleward aleutian ridge and neutral PNA. Yeah its different and I'm not surprised either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Speaking of the weeklies. Today's run holds the -EPO/+PNA look thru Feb again though the NAO region leaves a lot to be desired. Overall not as cold verbatim in the east as it has been in recent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Weeklies just tweeted out. Not sure that's the greatest look for the SE though but Met1985 says they should be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 4 hours ago, Met1985 said: Lol looks a lot like the setup we just had. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 It looks like a good pattern for SNE. Northern stream dominated with systems intensifying north of 40N. Maybe I am wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Don't focus on individual GFS runs...remember this is the same model whose ensembles just caved to all other modeling. There's going to be cold...if anything you need to worry about suppression. The EPS has -9.5C 850 anomalies over central Alabama spreading east Day 12. The mean 0c line is in northern Florida. Not the border. IN Florida. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Jon said: Don't focus on individual GFS runs...remember this is the same model whose ensembles just caved to all other modeling. There's going to be cold...if anything you need to worry about suppression. The EPS has -9.5C 850 anomalies over central Alabama spreading east Day 12. The mean 0c line is in northern Florida. Not the border. IN Florida. Pretty map, Jon? LOL (Check your PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Weeklies just tweeted out. Not sure that's the greatest look for the SE though but Met1985 says they should be trusted. Ouch throwing Met's name out huh? Coming from same guy who bought into a model that flipped back literally that night to the EPS? Christ man have a snickers! GEFS may end up with the right idea, but it was the EPS that sniffed it out first - remember that when comparing later. GEFS was screaming torch yesterday. Also, I'll add he Weeklies if you have access to the individual weeks are amazing thru Day 18. Amazing. And I'm no math expert but the tweet text "weeks 3-4" doesn't seem to match up with the map date range.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, Jon said: Ouch throwing Met's name out huh? Coming from same guy who bought into a model that flipped back literally that night to the EPS? Christ man have a snickers! GEFS may end up with the right idea, but it was the EPS that sniffed it out first - remember that when comparing later. GEFS was screaming torch yesterday. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Stop trolling...your better then that, or maybe not. I would explain to you why the GEFS was showing what it was showing but not sure your smart enough to understand. I posted the LR ensemble means, we will see who wins over the next few days. EPS - Pac low, stout +PNA GEFS - Pac ridge building poleward and retrograding trough pulled back west. I haven't said a word to you, you came after me, take your snickers and shove it up your.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Can we disagree without being disagreeable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Trend GEFS last 2 days, eye the Pacific. Finding PAC low, ridging out west is elongated...wrong. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 14 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Can we disagree without being disagreeable? Please yes. Two of the primaries on this board relied on to provide insight and analysis spitballing That last exchange reminded me of Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughan from Wedding Crashers arguing about having to spend a weekend at the Treasury secretary's Potomac home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Some people just love those weeklies...LOL. They really nailed January, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Please yes. Two of the primaries on this board relied on to provide insight and analysis spitballing That last exchange reminded me of Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughan from Wedding Crashers arguing about having to spend a weekend at the Treasury secretary's Potomac home Clearly frustrated. I apologize to Pack for that. Agree to disagree, we are all here for one thing and that's a nice SE winter.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 CFS for the same time period....so far nailing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: Some people just love those weeklies...LOL. They really nailed January, LOL. I believe that was all of one week they showed that however and they rapidly began backtracking the next time they came out. I don't think it was anywhere near as consistent as this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 18 minutes ago, Jon said: Agree to disagree, we are all here for one thing and that's a nice SE winter. we are all here for one two thing things, and that's a nice SE winter and to learn. Keep up the good work folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, pcbjr said: we are all here for one two thing things, and that's a nice SE winter and to learn. Keep up the good work folks! I'm just here for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Did anyone see this as being a possible all time warmest January back in December ? Did any models hint at that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I believe that was all of one week they showed that however and they rapidly began backtracking the next time they came out. I don't think it was anywhere near as consistent as this They have been consistent and CFS actually shows some agreement. I don't blindly clutch on to the EPS/weeklies, I know you don't either. The last week prior to start of the modeled month has been pretty good as of late. Be nice if they keep this up heading into end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Did anyone see this as being a possible all time warmest January back in December ? Did any models hint at that ? Probably not cause no one saw the snowiest January in Greensboro in over half a decade eitheir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Probably not cause no one saw the snowiest January in Greensboro in over half a decade eitheir. Atlanta was actually BN for the month a week ago and now they are 6-7 AN and probably 10 AN in a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Did anyone see this as being a possible all time warmest January back in December ? Did any models hint at that ? There's still a half a month to go. Hell, my NWS can't get it right 48 hours out. It's an interesting ride, no doubt, but there may be an unexpected bump before the end of the road this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Probably not cause no one saw the snowiest January in Greensboro in over half a decade eitheir. Looking tornadoey in Dalhonega and Carrollton Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, pcbjr said: There's still a half a month to go. Hell, my NWS can't get it right 48 hours out. It's an interesting ride, no doubt, but there may be an unexpected bump before the end of the month. Yeah, it'll be thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said: Atlanta was actually BN for the month a week ago and now they are 6-7 AN and probably 10 AN in a few more days. Greensboro is 1.2 above normal as of today. Definetly will end up above normal for Jan, but the pattern flips in 8 days and will be normal to below the last 4 or 5 days of the month. So it want come near to record above normal here when it gets avg out after 31 days, but should wind up +3 long stretch +4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, it'll be thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Atlanta was actually BN for the month a week ago and now they are 6-7 AN and probably 10 AN in a few more days. It doesn't look like they'll finish top 3 when I was looking at it yesterday. They may be around 3rd or 4th Sunday but I think the final 6/7 days will take them out of contention. There are some insanely warm January's from the 1930s and 1950s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Gonna be interesting.. I still say we got a chance to surpass 1950 here in CHA.... These are hella warm overnight lows from outer fudging space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Looking tornadoey in Dalhonega and Carrollton Sunday Hopefully it will not interfere with the Falcons tailgating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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