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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Maybe get that NW trend.

Well you have the para super suppressed and the ens possibly with a couple more member suppressed verse previous runs. Verse the crap 12z euro and canadian op runs. Then you have yesterday's 12z gfs Jan 1988 redux that dropped 16+ inches here in triad. So all options are on the table and it'll be sunday night into Monday before the big picture ,features get in place and set the wheels in motion before we can zero in on what exactly is gonna happen. Several more highs and lows to go. Trust me well get one or 2 more weenie runs off a op before the smoke settles. And we'll also get another train wreck run or 2 like we had today euro 12z.

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18z is slower with the first wave (or consolidates it farther west) which will give the arctic high to move in.  Better confluence over the NE even though the Greenland ridge isn't really in place. Would be an in-situ scenario with the CAD high. Hopefully the Greenland block trends back in.  Progression of the STJ wave is money.

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11 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

My humble and completely flippant opinion here....but something isn't right about that look.  Of course it is the 18z...

Having watched and studied models for years, and particularly studied their veracity, I could not agree more about the 18Z (past 72 hours on any run any day of the year).

Concur - something doesn't look right - too zonal across the board - but that's just   IMHO

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5 hours ago, ajr said:

For someone new to this, is there somewhere I can read a discussion on ensembles vs control/operational models? I can appreciate the utility of ensemble averaging but how is the control/operational model different exactly in terms of inputs (compared to the inputs for individual ensembles)? 

In addition to what QueenCity posted...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yzhu/gif/pub/AAS200512_Zhu.pdf

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/

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