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NNE Winter Thread

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Not much talk about the upcoming clipper... some models are pretty robust, while the EURO still isn't sold.

BTV going with Advisories for 3-6"...a nice topper after this recent system. 

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MASSENA, MALONE, STAR LAKE, SARANAC LAKE,
TUPPER LAKE, DANNEMORA, LAKE PLACID, OGDENSBURG, POTSDAM,
GOUVERNEUR, NEWPORT, ISLAND POND, JOHNSON, STOWE, ST. JOHNSBURY,
MONTPELIER, ENOSBURG FALLS, AND RICHFORD
205 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY
TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT  FROM 10 AM SATURDAY
TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN NEW YORK, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
  ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, NORTH CENTRAL AND
  NORTHEAST VERMONT INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN
  GREEN MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...
  MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS
  AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
  SATURDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ON SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE
  MID 20S SATURDAY NIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...OCCASIONALLY BELOW ONE MILE.
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J.Spin

J.Spin

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Event totals: 5.3” Snow/0.34” L.E.

 

We’re still getting a bit of activity as Winter Storm Fortis pulls away.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0

Snow Density: 3.3% H2O

Temperature: 33.4 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Not much talk about the upcoming clipper... some models are pretty robust, while the EURO still isn't sold.

BTV going with Advisories for 3-6"...a nice topper after this recent system.

 

I was surprised when a Winter Weather Advisory text popped up on my phone around 2:00 P.M. today as I was heading up to the mountain.  I’m not really sure if this event calls for one, but advisory maps and projected accumulations from the BTV NWS are below:

 

30DEC16A.jpg

 

30DEC16B.jpg

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klw

klw

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45 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Back to same ole routine. PF posting RGEM maps and getting everyone's hopes up for Vermont snow forgetting that if the RGEM shows snow in VT, it ends up in Canada.  Don't worry PF, I'm reading and it's snowing out here right now too. 

FYP

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Looking at the regional ski area totals it looks like Jay Peak got bombed pretty good...they have to be something like 30" storm total as it sounds like 21" in the last 24 hours?

Sugarbush also again had a ridiculous range as the 72 hour totals are showing 4" at the base, 6" at 3000ft, and 17" at the summit cam.  Continues to be a head scratcher how snowfall triples between 3,000-4,000ft but sounds like that's whats going on this season.  Should be fun to see how high they can get.

We might have gotten an inch or two overnight but can't get to the High Road stake for a little bit and the groomers couldn't confirm anything due to overnight wind...called it a dusting to be safe for now.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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53 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looking at the regional ski area totals it looks like Jay Peak got bombed pretty good...they have to be something like 30" storm total as it sounds like 21" in the last 24 hours?

Sugarbush also again had a ridiculous range as the 72 hour totals are showing 4" at the base, 6" at 3000ft, and 17" at the summit cam.  Continues to be a head scratcher how snowfall triples between 3,000-4,000ft but sounds like that's whats going on this season.  Should be fun to see how high they can get.

We might have gotten an inch or two overnight but can't get to the High Road stake for a little bit and the groomers couldn't confirm anything due to overnight wind...called it a dusting to be safe for now.

Pittsburg looks like they picked up 12", and most of that was probably backside upslope flow.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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I didn’t get a chance to post the latest BTV NWS maps this morning for the upcoming event, but I’ve got them below for archival/comparison purposes.  We’ll see if the anticipated totals change at all as the afternoon update comes in.  This event still seems a bit on the low side with respect to anticipated snow in some spots where the Winter Weather Advisory is in place, but perhaps there’s an extra level of alertness wanted with the new year holiday in progress and lots of potential for people to be out and about.

 

31DEC16A.jpg

 

31DEC16B.jpg

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adk

adk

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8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Looking at the regional ski area totals it looks like Jay Peak got bombed pretty good...they have to be something like 30" storm total as it sounds like 21" in the last 24 hours?

Sugarbush also again had a ridiculous range as the 72 hour totals are showing 4" at the base, 6" at 3000ft, and 17" at the summit cam.  Continues to be a head scratcher how snowfall triples between 3,000-4,000ft but sounds like that's whats going on this season.  Should be fun to see how high they can get.

We might have gotten an inch or two overnight but can't get to the High Road stake for a little bit and the groomers couldn't confirm anything due to overnight wind...called it a dusting to be safe for now.

Yea, I'm not sure if the Radar supported that big 24 hr total for Jay. Seems like there was double counting in there somewhere. 

 

Same goes for SB. I watched that cam pretty closely for the last three days. I think they were in line with what you got PF at the high road stake. 

 

Was poking around the west side today.  It does not equal the east side. 

 

WRF isn't too impressive with tonight system. Thinking 6" is the highest end. Not that 6" isn't bad....just wondering if NWS would put the adviso if it wasn't 12/31...

 

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ono

ono

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Was at Jay yesterday (not the resort, but poking around the woods away from the resort). Snow rates were baseline moderate (under 1"/hr) to nuking (2"+ hour) all day.  By that time, depths reported by the resort were ~17"- 11" from synoptic and another 6" from upslope.  realistically, they got 6" from synoptic. Upslope was tough to measure with winds and density- it was not blower (though it came down as big dendrites while there up high in the bowl, the flake structures were likely affected by wind down lower, where it is more broad and less in the protected pocked on the east side where it was calm winds up high.  They didn't have ~20"+ by my estimation at noon yesterday as the reports would suggest, more like 12"-14. Impossible to tell.

The snowpack up there is thick, maybe 30" at 1600'- 4-5' around 2500'.  The unique thing about this year is that it has snowed nicely, and we've had rain storms that didn't affect the snowpack as you'd expect. An exception: streams- the snowpack didn't melt, but the streams have locally gouged snowbridges/covering like crazy (usually filled in and not a problem). This year, with drifting, you're looking at 5-7'+ shear drops in some places into stream beds. Can easily sneak up on you.

Rt 242 up in the notch was an absolute sh#itshow.  FWD cars with snowtires could barely get up (doing the <1mph left-right-left snake shuffle up at the top pitch. They had several cars stuck (out of state folks without snow tires, of course) but the combo of slushy roads, 19°F and high snow rates made it really tough for any vehicle going up that didn't have at least AWD/4WD.  Snow tires alone just didn't cut it.  Plows out and VT state police constantly driving by for the half hour or so we spent by the road (at the start and then end). Never have I seen it like that- they should've had a checkpoint for snowtires or AWD/4WD on both sides.  It was a classic upslope event.  

Montgomery to Belvidere- still had respectable snowpack down in Montgomery Center/Montgomery.  Gaining elevation, the area around Belvidere/Eden has a LOT of snow in the higher elevation valleys (1200'+) probably 20"+ OTG easily.  Heading toward Cambridge/Jeffersonville- totally the opposite, with a few inches at best. Crazy.

 

Was up around Bolton today- beautiful mid-winter skiing/snowscape above 2000'.  It has filled in nicely on the east side- similar stream crossing issues (makes lines more narrow/closed off). Didn't get nearly as much from the recent event (maybe 6-12" on the crust depending on apect/winds). Skied surprisingly AWESOME, however- probably why we were alone on a holiday weekend- we didn't see another soul out, and people probably don't quite believe it's ready back there- so I'll just say it's not ready yet, as to have more choices, again, tomorrow.  The combo of crust and just enough snow provided enough push back to really send the steeper turns into airplane turn mode- really could lay it down.  Estimate the snowpack at easily ~40"+ up at 3100' elevation, and maybe 30" down low around 2100' elevation. Very good shape overall for December

The west side of Bolton Valley area actually is in great shape as well (not the resort area, but outside of it). Snowpack retention probably benefitted here from the relatively high elevation boxed-valley nature of the Bolton Valley area- it's west-facing/west side of the Spine, but there's another ridgeline to the west that likely provided some protection from the persistent surges of warm air that have cranked up the Champlain Valley- so awesome skiing/snow here as well.  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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2 hours ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Dissapointed in this clipper so far up here; just a little light snow/flurries earlier in the day at Stowe/Waterbury

Its all about wind flow, direction, speed and moisture profile.  Blocked flow or unblocked.  Mid-level or low-level processes or both. 

This one turns out to have a very strong flow aloft and the best lift, moisture and snow growth are all collocated east of this area.  Its snowing steadily like 3-5 miles away.  The SW flow is lifting into the Adirondacks, then sinking air into the Champlain Valley and the wave pattern continues over the Greens...sometimes we've gotten crushed in these situations if the snow production is happening at a lower elevation and/or with a slower flow.  There's usually a sharp gradient in these clipper... this is one of the rarer times the flow is so unblocked the best lift and saturation is so far downstream.  Dry air at the surface also playing a role. 

Dec_31_745pm_VAD_zpshuecxheb.gif

Remember with that strong 40-50kt flow in the 850-750mb layer, these radar echos are landing quite a bit downwind (east/northeast of radar echos) of where shown.

Dec_31__zpspcv3ia9v.gif

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