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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

2,791 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, adk said:

Just goes to show that above average temperature =/= bad skiing. 

This winter has been abnormal in that cutters and warm periods were followed closely (like right away) by persistent nw flow patterns that brought rounds of 3-5" snows to the mtns. In other years cutters were followed by periods of big cold dry highs. I've been trying to figure out why this has been the case. downstream blocking is a somewhat obvious answer but I'm not seeing it clearly.  

 

 

Yeah its been a very interesting winter for orographic snows.  Some winters it seems the mountains don't have the full effect...this winter they have, even on SE flow or SW flow or NW flow or W flow...pretty much anything except NE flow has done well.

And its interesting because its not like its been very cold but the lake effect has been active along with the orographic snows.  Something has been allowing the meso-scale to take over a bit more than recent years. 

The worst pattern for orographic snows are like over-running patterns such as 2013-14....but we've had plenty of low level moisture to act on this winter compared to recent winters.  I almost wonder if the warmer temps have allowed for higher RH and overall better moisture profiles than say cold and dry with a week long high pressure following a cutter (which has been happening for several seasons). 

It has been active with weak shortwaves and energy moving through the fast flow and that seems to help a lot. 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah its been a very interesting winter for orographic snows.  Some winters it seems the mountains don't have the full effect...this winter they have, even on SE flow or SW flow or NW flow or W flow...pretty much anything except NE flow has done well.

And its interesting because its not like its been very cold but the lake effect has been active along with the orographic snows.  Something has been allowing the meso-scale to take over a bit more than recent years. 

The worst pattern for orographic snows are like over-running patterns such as 2013-14....but we've had plenty of low level moisture to act on this winter compared to recent winters.  I almost wonder if the warmer temps have allowed for higher RH and overall better moisture profiles than say cold and dry with a week long high pressure following a cutter (which has been happening for several seasons). 

It has been active with weak shortwaves and energy moving through the fast flow and that seems to help a lot. 

This may be simplistic, but temps and RH as you stated play a role. Aka, 2012.  I'm sure there are other reasons, but it's not a coincidence imho.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

This may be simplistic, but temps and RH as you stated play a role. Aka, 2012.  I'm sure there are other reasons, but it's not a coincidence imho.

Yeah I agree... 2012 was a real good upslope season and it was another warm one with little snow elsewhere.  Though we look to destroy that seasonal total (it was 210 or 240", I forget off the top of my head), the vast majority of that seasonal snow was orographic in nature.

If we really think about it, say -10C at H85 is probably above normal during the heart of winter in further NNE latitudes right?  I'm not good with climo at the various levels but I would think sitting at -8C or something is above normal at that latitude.  I feel ancedotally that our best upslope is around those HH85 temps... like -8C to -14C.  Above that the ratios are really good but moisture potential seems to diminish.  Below -8C we've had some events this season and those are the ones that are the moist ones...the synoptic density like 1.4" QPF to 16" of snow. 

I do think there's something to the warmer atmosphere and the upslope.  But we've also had warmer months be terrible for upslope.  Its certainly an interesting topic but I think the potential increases in a general WSW flow with periods of NW flow. 

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My phone just gave me a quick alert and revealed that a Special Weather Statement was put out by the Burlington NWS for this area due to snow squalls.  The BTV advisories map shows a pretty unique alert area:

 

02FEB17A.jpg

 

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Burlington VT

944 PM EST THU FEB 2 2017

 

NYZ028-030-031-034-035-VTZ001>003-005>009-016>018-030345-

Western Essex-Western Clinton-Eastern Clinton-Southern

Franklin-Eastern Essex-Western Franklin-Grand Isle-Western

Addison-Washington-Lamoille-Caledonia-Eastern Chittenden-Western

Chittenden-Eastern Franklin-Orleans-Eastern Addison-

944 PM EST THU FEB 2 2017

 

...SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CLINTON...EAST CENTRAL

FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN ESSEX...LAMOILLE...WEST CENTRAL CALEDONIA...

NORTHWESTERN ADDISON...SOUTHERN GRAND ISLE...CHITTENDEN...NORTHERN

WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

 

At 944 PM EST...National Weather Service radar indicated areas of

snow squalls over portions of of the northern Champlain Valley...

moving southeast at 20 mph.

 

Locations impacted include...

South Burlington, Colchester, Essex Junction, Burlington

International Airport, Plattsburgh International Airport, Essex,

Williston, Winooski, Shelburne, Peru, Grand Isle, Jericho, Hinesburg,

Stowe, Fairfax, Richmond, Charlotte, Underhill, Hardwick and

Ferrisburgh.

 

* Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a mile in these

  squalls with a quick dusting to perhaps 1 inch of snow

  accumulation in a short period of time.

 

Rapid visibility reduction and potentially icy roads are likely to

produce hazardous driving conditions. If you are traveling and

encounter adverse winter driving conditions, reduce speed and make

sure headlights are on to increase the visibility of your vehicle to

those around you.

 

LAT...LON 4446 7198 4411 7359 4460 7430 4481 7307

TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 293DEG 18KT 4459 7254 4448 7400

$$

 

Lahiff

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My phone just gave me a quick alert and revealed that a Special Weather Statement was put out by the Burlington NWS for this area due to snow squalls.  The BTV advisories map shows a pretty unique alert area:

 

02FEB17A.jpg&key=41a48c2091189d78f20f866425cbe3db93f73c2d41ff9bfb48b2efa1f747f298

 

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Burlington VT

944 PM EST THU FEB 2 2017

 

NYZ028-030-031-034-035-VTZ001>003-005>009-016>018-030345-

Western Essex-Western Clinton-Eastern Clinton-Southern

Franklin-Eastern Essex-Western Franklin-Grand Isle-Western

Addison-Washington-Lamoille-Caledonia-Eastern Chittenden-Western

Chittenden-Eastern Franklin-Orleans-Eastern Addison-

944 PM EST THU FEB 2 2017

 

...SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CLINTON...EAST CENTRAL

FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN ESSEX...LAMOILLE...WEST CENTRAL CALEDONIA...

NORTHWESTERN ADDISON...SOUTHERN GRAND ISLE...CHITTENDEN...NORTHERN

WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

 

At 944 PM EST...National Weather Service radar indicated areas of

snow squalls over portions of of the northern Champlain Valley...

moving southeast at 20 mph.

 

Locations impacted include...

South Burlington, Colchester, Essex Junction, Burlington

International Airport, Plattsburgh International Airport, Essex,

Williston, Winooski, Shelburne, Peru, Grand Isle, Jericho, Hinesburg,

Stowe, Fairfax, Richmond, Charlotte, Underhill, Hardwick and

Ferrisburgh.

 

* Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a mile in these

  squalls with a quick dusting to perhaps 1 inch of snow

  accumulation in a short period of time.

 

Rapid visibility reduction and potentially icy roads are likely to

produce hazardous driving conditions. If you are traveling and

encounter adverse winter driving conditions, reduce speed and make

sure headlights are on to increase the visibility of your vehicle to

those around you.

 

LAT...LON 4446 7198 4411 7359 4460 7430 4481 7307

TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 293DEG 18KT 4459 7254 4448 7400

$$

 

Lahiff


I am waiting for it now in Colchester

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Whatever makes it do this (photo from this afternoon) is what we need...

16463771_10102849847903820_1098693640023

Wow, nice shot.

BTW, can't agree with you more on your previous post. NNE (mountains) have done well this year wrt orographics. WV is closing in on 100" and even though I'm only 6 miles south and 1/2 their totals, I believe it!

FWIW, Blue Hills has had a temp increase of about 1C+/- over the past 100 years but I believe are above average in terms of snowfall the past 10 or so years. So even southern NE has been doing well despite the warmer temps.

 

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Wow.  Last night got the job done.

1.7" at home but 4.5" at the 1,500ft stake and grooming saying at least 6" up high, possibly 7-8" but a little drifty to go with that.  

 

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hayzeus krist.  Woke up this morning to a pounding on the door.  Message from Model Center, sir, said the lackey.  GFS shows a shift east for next Tuesday, keeping area all snow.  I nearly spewed my coffee on the lad.  Whachoo talking aboot, fool!  I oughta smack you fuh giving me hope today.  Yes sir, said the lackey.  And off he went.  Strange kid.

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49 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

hayzeus krist.  Woke up this morning to a pounding on the door.  Message from Model Center, sir, said the lackey.  GFS shows a shift east for next Tuesday, keeping area all snow.  I nearly spewed my coffee on the lad.  Whachoo talking aboot, fool!  I oughta smack you fuh giving me hope today.  Yes sir, said the lackey.  And off he went.  Strange kid.

Hahah if only but yes the Euro looks a lot different than the GFS this morning with a 2 low solution and much snowier here.

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Event totals: 2.4” Snow/0.06” L.E.

 

When the Special Weather Statement came out yesterday evening we saw some light snow until about midnight, and then the snowfall really picked up in intensity.  The heaviest snowfall was when one of the streamers was aimed right down the Winooski Valley, and I’m sure there was some channeling and convergence helping out along with the usual lift assist from the wall formed by the spine.  The flakes were up to an inch in diameter so they stacked up very quickly.  I’d say the rate was probably in the 1-2”/hr. range at that point:

 

03FEB17A.gif

 

There was little to no wind as usual, so the flakes produced some impressive loft as the liquid analysis below reveals.  There had already been plenty of settling of the snow by this morning – the snowpack only went up by an inch from what it was before the event.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 2.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0

Snow Density: 2.5% H2O

Temperature: 20.7 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

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57 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Holy crap it unloaded on Mansfield last night. Eyeballing 8" or so upper half of the hill.  Just caked.

Watched that radar about 1 am and laughed at what PFS post would be. And it's dumping again.

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

9-10" High Road.  This is best day of the season.  Over the head pow.

Nuking right now.

Like it should be 

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16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ha I remember January 2014 as my melt.  I mean that was the worst winter month you could dream of. 

I mean that was terrible.  I just saw a picture of my yard that January with about 3-4" of standing water on top of a rock hard frozen ground.  It rained so much and was still so cold that the water couldn't drain.

Jan 2014, the "Impossible Dream (nightmare)"   It takes some special circumstances to get 125% of average precip in a month with average temp of 11F and wind up with 25% of normal snowfall.

Will this coming Tues-Wed be a rerun of 2 weeks earlier?  06z GFS showed Augusta having H8 at zero, H9 at -9C, and 2m at 4F early Wed AM.  Not sure I've seen that drastic an inversion on a model before.  At least the sleet would be fully frozen.

Edit:  Was WVL not AUG with those readings, at 12z Wed (hour 126).  However, all the central Maine sites had giant inversions - pretty good lapse rates if they were turned upside down.

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2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Hahah if only but yes the Euro looks a lot different than the GFS this morning with a 2 low solution and much snowier here.

Everything has trended better this season.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

9-10" High Road.  This is best day of the season.  Over the head pow.

Nuking right now.

There are some just insane shots on that camera....and Gregs. 

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On ‎2‎/‎2‎/‎2017 at 8:20 AM, CoastalWx said:

What is your total for the season? 

 

I just updated it this morning in my signature, but it’s 72.9” as of 6:00 A.M. CoCoRaHS report time this morning.

 

Although we’re still running about a foot behind average snowfall this season, last night’s squalls just pushed the 2016-2017 snowfall total past what was recorded in the entirety of 2015-2016.  So, being right around the midway mark of the snowfall season, even the pace we’ve seen thus far would be enough to double last season’s snowfall if it continues.

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Anyone have a good summary of what the Euro shows for next week in the MWV / Ski Areas?

I'm heading up there for a long weekend next weekend and starting to get stoked.  GFS looks OK to me - ends up on the warm side of the low pressure but not before a decent snowfall.  Weenie snow maps seem out of whack with the depicted solution - but that's why they are weenie maps.

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15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Up to 12" now.  1-2"/hr still cranking on the hill.

strong streamer coming in through Burlington right now.  You're going to add to your totals.  Sweet!

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