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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just living on the edge of the brown Champlain Valley...not necessarily fluff.

Seems more rare for you to have more snow than him. Usually he's upsloping his way through. 

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You guys got a lot more of the sleety events and that heavy wet snowstorm where tamarack had two feet with 2" liquid.

Its like every season we figure this out.

JSpin is right on the line...there's grass showing like a couple miles away, while I've got 8-10" but my walk-on layer is about 3-4" thick.

heh...

I know how it works, but he has over double the snow I have and I have 1.5x the pack. It just surprised me a bit. You guys always seem to be getting snow and you post a couple radar grabs a day so I figured the depths out there were doing better than that. I've barely been keeping track of my own data, nevermind everyone else's.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

heh...

I know how it works, but he has over double the snow I have and I have 1.5x the pack. It just surprised me a bit. You guys always seem to be getting snow and you post a couple radar grabs a day so I figured the depths out there were doing better than that. I've barely been keeping track of my own data, nevermind everyone else's.

Mansnow always wins.

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30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mansnow always wins.

Should just look at JSpin's liquid precip this winter vs other areas and see if it's fluff or CAD.  We haven't had a ton of real fluffy events that I can remember.  This one yesterday was probably the worst offender.

Because I bet it's mostly a function of CAD and freeezing rain/IP.  

Cutters usually have us rotting mid-30s and dripping while Brian is 30F with ZR.

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Should just look at JSpin's liquid precip this winter vs other areas and see if it's fluff or CAD.  We haven't had a ton of real fluffy events that I can remember.  This one yesterday was probably the worst offender.

Because I bet it's mostly a function of CAD and freeezing rain/IP.  

Cutters usually have us rotting mid-30s and dripping while Brian is 30F with ZR.

There's been a lot of 1-2" events of low equivalent. I think that's part of the issue. The mtn has been leaps and bounds over the low spots thanks to warm temps this season. I should say manpack vs mansnow. The CAD certainly helps.

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34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There's been a lot of 1-2" events of low equivalent. I think that's part of the issue. The mtn has been leaps and bounds over the low spots thanks to warm temps this season. I should say manpack vs mansnow. The CAD certainly helps.

My pack feels pretty darn stout on the while with a few fluffy inches on top.  I think it's just a couple missed synoptic events and then the mild temps at thaws.

Its more a preservation and smallish amounts probably.  East of here had that high QPF snow event that ticked east in the final 24 hours and I know that's been almost their entire snowpack this season.  

The upslope events this season have been moist...more so than normal.  The light events are tough though even if it's with QPF to build up depths.  Could get .1" QPF a day and it would seem to take a lot longer to build than just one 0.8" liquid event....even after you got to 0.8" in 8 days it wouldn't be the same depth.  

I think it's warmer temps and lack of one real decent storm to get the pack rolling.  

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

My pack feels pretty darn stout on the while with a few fluffy inches on top.  I think it's just a couple missed synoptic events and then the mild temps at thaws.

Its more a preservation and smallish amounts probably.  East of here had that high QPF snow event that ticked east in the final 24 hours and I know that's been almost their entire snowpack this season.  

The upslope events this season have been moist...more so than normal.  The light events are tough though even if it's with QPF to build up depths.  Could get .1" QPF a day and it would seem to take a lot longer to build than just one 0.8" liquid event....even after you got to 0.8" in 8 days it wouldn't be the same depth.  

I think it's warmer temps and lack of one real decent storm to get the pack rolling.  

That's what I'm getting at. Lack of good storms and preservation. But every time he gets 1-2" of that upslope stuff, his depth is the same lol. 

 

There is a very real difference in sensible weather between 1500ft and 500ft this year. You seem to be in your own party with others lamenting.

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57 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You guys got a lot more of the sleety events and that heavy wet snowstorm where tamarack had two feet with 2" liquid.

Its like every season we figure this out.

JSpin is right on the line...there's grass showing like a couple miles away, while I've got 8-10" but my walk-on layer is about 3-4" thick.

Only 21" but still great.  Farmington co-op had 24.9" but Mr. Pike usually records more than I do - probably does the 6-hr thing whereas I'm usually satisfied with 9P and 7A obs, more only if the event warrants (and I'm at home.)  And it's the 2" liquid/4.5" 'everything' event that bulletproofed an 18" pack, up to 20 atm thanks to yesterday's 1.8" of 16:1 fluff (another 0.1" flurry overnight.)

January numbers - a month with 2 phases, neither of which included serious snowfall.  Days 1-10 ran 4.3° BN, then 11-30 was +11.5, before the 31st was -5.  The 11 days 19-29 ranged from +12 to +22 and averaged +16.2, the most extended January thaw I've recorded anywhere, including NNJ (comparing to seasonal norms.)

Avg max:  29.71   +4.27
Avg min:   11.55  +8.01
Avg mean: 20.63  +6.14    3rd mildest of 19.  2006 is #1, then 2002.  The avg diurnal range of 18.16 is nearly 4° under the mean, and lowest for any January.

The month's high and low came on consecutive days, with -20 on the 10th rising to 46 on the 11th.  Mean temps for the 2 days were -3.5 and 29.5, a 33° leap.  The only other month I can recall with abutting high-low was last Feb, with -22 on the 15th and 46 on the 16th.

Precip:  3.98"  +0.96  After 7 straight months (Mar-Sep) drier than avg, 3 of the past four were AN.  Greatest in one day:  1.82" on the 24th, also largest frozen "stuff", with 4.5".

Snowfall:  12.4"   6.7" BN and 5th lowest of 19.  After seeing 9 of 14 Januarys 1999-2012 fall in the narrow range of 22.6" to 27.5", the past 5 haven't been anywhere near that, with 4 ranging 5.1" to 13.9" and 2015 dumping 36.8".  "Normal wx is merely the average of abnormal wx."

Snowpack averaged 19.4", 8.2" above avg for Jan, and 2nd (by a lot, 4.4") only to 2008, just nipping 2009.  Getting 21" of 10:1 snow in late Dec set the stage, and fortunately the long thaw included little sun and no warm rain.

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43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's what I'm getting at. Lack of good storms and preservation. But every time he gets 1-2" of that upslope stuff, his depth is the same lol. 

 

There is a very real difference in sensible weather between 1500ft and 500ft this year. You seem to be in your own party with others lamenting.

+1 to your second sentence.  I'm at 1200' at home so sort of on the line but it is really noticeable as you move above 1500' and the real jump starts around 1700'.  Like PF, I've had snow cover in my yard since the around the beginning of December but at times it has gotten close to being wiped out.

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29 minutes ago, mreaves said:

+1 to your second sentence.  I'm at 1200' at home so sort of on the line but it is really noticeable as you move above 1500' and the real jump starts around 1700'.  Like PF, I've had snow cover in my yard since the around the beginning of December but at times it has gotten close to being wiped out.

Yeah I'm not trying to be a dink or anything....just something I've noticed. And it seems like nrn VT skiing  has been much better than southern Vermont skiing. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That's what I'm getting at. Lack of good storms and preservation. But every time he gets 1-2" of that upslope stuff, his depth is the same lol. 

 

There is a very real difference in sensible weather between 1500ft and 500ft this year. You seem to be in your own party with others lamenting.

I don't think its just elevation...I think its proximity to the Spine and also proximity to the Champlain Valley.  What I have here at 1,500ft is probably more like 2,000ft or more further east. 

But I have no issues at all with the winter I've had at 750ft.  I don't think its that bad at all...folks may laugh that what's the use when the snow depth is under 10" but psychologically seeing it nice and white with flakes in the air almost every day is a very wintry appeal.  If it melts off, we get another 1-2" snow shower that makes every tree branch white again.  I know some seem to really hate the light events (but we just had a nice 15-20 page thread for 1-3" so people do enjoy it) but they tide you over...like giving a junkie a hit of smack.  It may not be the motherload but seeing it snow almost every day certainly goes into my feelings on winter.

It also makes the snowpack *look* better....even 2" of fresh snow and graupel on top of the icepack has that "fresh" look.  Maybe the snowpack isn't growing rapidly but it looks nice.  I think that's a big part of it, those little refreshes are a lot better when you have snow on the ground already.  The snowbanks aren't black because they are consistently getting those first little refreshes.  You aren't staring out at a stale snow that hasn't seen a flake in 10 days type of deal.

 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I'm not trying to be a dink or anything....just something I've noticed. And it seems like nrn VT skiing  has been much better than southern Vermont skiing. 

That's "normal" ;).

I just have absolutely no expectations after the past several seasons, so just having consistent white and flakes is really nice to me.  And having the mountain in excellent shape, I mean I can't believe how good the snow has been for a month that was almost double digits above normal.  Its pretty crazy to have that turn out like that.  If someone said hey, here's a +10 month, you wouldn't have believed it at the ski resorts.  Even at home I wouldn't have thought it was that far above normal...its not like it was weeks of 40s it was just warm overnight lows.

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42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That's "normal" ;).

I just have absolutely no expectations after the past several seasons, so just having consistent white and flakes is really nice to me.  And having the mountain in excellent shape, I mean I can't believe how good the snow has been for a month that was almost double digits above normal.  Its pretty crazy to have that turn out like that.  If someone said hey, here's a +10 month, you wouldn't have believed it at the ski resorts.  Even at home I wouldn't have thought it was that far above normal...its not like it was weeks of 40s it was just warm overnight lows.

Right it's all relative, but seems like the state as a whole where most of these posters live isn't exactly living a dream winter. It seems to be much better in a relative sense in the mtns and on the spine in nrn VT. How much does 1500' have? 20" or more? Jspin has 6"? That difference seems to be more noticeable this year on a consistent basis.

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I am happy I can escape the screw zone once again tomorrow and head to the mountain for some turns. With 1000 days on the table, at least I can say the ski season is in solid shape for the time being. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I did hear great rpts from Smuggs about the skiing.

I will be there tomorrow. They are 99% open including in the woods (although I mainly stick to groomers).

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Right it's all relative, but seems like the state as a whole where most of these posters live isn't exactly living a dream winter. It seems to be much better in a relative sense in the mtns and on the spine in nrn VT. How much does 1500' have? 20" or more? Jspin has 6"? That difference seems to be more noticeable this year on a consistent basis.

25" this morning at 1500ft.

8-10" at 750ft and 6" at 500ft and 0" at 300ft BTV.

I don't think it's a dream winter either though.  There's a big difference in being content with winter though.

I'm much more content at home with winter in the backyard than 13/14, even 14/15, and of course 15/16.  It's a type of winter I like...frequent snow, steady coverage, fantastic skiing and no brutal cold temps.  

Fire up a couple good sized synoptic storms in the next couple months and it'll be remembered as a lot less frustrating than some recent winters for me personally.  The -20F here while I-95 blizzards is much worse than this by a long shot.  I've really come to hate cold and dry with a passion haha.

If the alternative is a High of 28F here with 1-3" every couple days and 3-8" on the mountain, that wins haha.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

25" this morning at 1500ft.

8-10" at 750ft and 6" at 500ft and 0" at 300ft BTV.

I don't think it's a dream winter either though.  There's a big difference in being content with winter though.

I'm much more content at home with winter in the backyard than 13/14, even 14/15, and of course 15/16.  It's a type of winter I like...frequent snow, steady coverage, fantastic skiing and no brutal cold temps.  

Fire up a couple good sized synoptic storms in the next couple months and it'll be remembered as a lot less frustrating than some recent winters for me personally.  The -20F here while I-95 blizzards is much worse than this by a long shot.  I've really come to hate cold and dry with a passion haha.

If the alternative is a High of 28F here with 1-3" every couple days and 3-8" on the mountain, that wins haha.

Remember when you went on a huge rant before 2013-2014 on how it didn't get brutally cold anymore in VT?

 

This post is funny to read in retrospect 4 years later.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Remember when you went on a huge rant before 2013-2014 on how it didn't get brutally cold anymore in VT?

 

This post is funny to read in retrospect 4 years later.

Did I?  

Ohhh yeah about negative departures at BTV...it still is very hard.  I dont think it was a rant but BTV will have warmer months outnumber cold ones 10:1 haha.

2013-14 was brutal cold at times.  Must've been 2011-12 I did that or something.

I don't think I've ever liked cold and dry though...I know I've argued with you for years about above or below normal for snows.  Cold has never been my thing...just cold enough to snow.

Either way, point still stands, this is much better than -20F and blue skies for weeks on end, no doubt about it ha.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That's "normal" ;).

I just have absolutely no expectations after the past several seasons, so just having consistent white and flakes is really nice to me.  And having the mountain in excellent shape, I mean I can't believe how good the snow has been for a month that was almost double digits above normal.  Its pretty crazy to have that turn out like that.  If someone said hey, here's a +10 month, you wouldn't have believed it at the ski resorts.  Even at home I wouldn't have thought it was that far above normal...its not like it was weeks of 40s it was just warm overnight lows.

You wouldn't have believed it because it probably wasn't the case.  The departures in the mountains were not as severe as at BTV and in the Champlain.  Montpelier was +7.7, Morrisville +8.8.  I suspect that at the ski resorts, the departure was similar or less.  That's the difference between mood snows and the the joy of mixed precip or straight rain at 33F. 

Nine days with daytime temps of 40 or more at BTV, including 2 days of 50+.    Six straight days where the temperature never fell below 32.  No doubt overnight lows helped push the average temp higher, but it was far more than just warm overnight lows.

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Just goes to show that above average temperature =/= bad skiing. 

This winter has been abnormal in that cutters and warm periods were followed closely (like right away) by persistent nw flow patterns that brought rounds of 3-5" snows to the mtns. In other years cutters were followed by periods of big cold dry highs. I've been trying to figure out why this has been the case. downstream blocking is a somewhat obvious answer but I'm not seeing it clearly.  

 

 

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21 minutes ago, eyewall said:

BTV is now at 30" even on the season or -15.0" relative to normal to date after yesterday's 1.4". 

It's a shock to me that BTV is even that high.  Most of that must have fallen in December, or at night, when nobody was awake to care.

Surely, a good storm or two can dent or even overcome the deficit.  We've been saying that for two years, though, and nothing is on the horizon which suggests this will happen.  At best, winter is always 10 days away, but I don't recall even seeing a single warning type event in the 10-day forecast once this winter.  I've frequently seen 3-5 inch events around days 7-10, but those always reduce down to 1-2 and mixed precip or plain rain.  A little look-see at the current 10 day shows exactly that for next week: 3-5 inches on Tuesday and 0.5 inches rain on Wednesday.  F*ing joy.
 

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

25" this morning at 1500ft.

8-10" at 750ft and 6" at 500ft and 0" at 300ft BTV.

I don't think it's a dream winter either though.  There's a big difference in being content with winter though.

I'm much more content at home with winter in the backyard than 13/14, even 14/15, and of course 15/16.  It's a type of winter I like...frequent snow, steady coverage, fantastic skiing and no brutal cold temps.  

Fire up a couple good sized synoptic storms in the next couple months and it'll be remembered as a lot less frustrating than some recent winters for me personally.  The -20F here while I-95 blizzards is much worse than this by a long shot.  I've really come to hate cold and dry with a passion haha.

If the alternative is a High of 28F here with 1-3" every couple days and 3-8" on the mountain, that wins haha.

Well as long as skiing is good there. You don't want to see that go to ****. You guys should do well next week and then back to eastern trough hopefully. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Did I?  

Ohhh yeah about negative departures at BTV...it still is very hard.  I dont think it was a rant but BTV will have warmer months outnumber cold ones 10:1 haha.

2013-14 was brutal cold at times.  Must've been 2011-12 I did that or something.

I don't think I've ever liked cold and dry though...I know I've argued with you for years about above or below normal for snows.  Cold has never been my thing...just cold enough to snow.

Either way, point still stands, this is much better than -20F and blue skies for weeks on end, no doubt about it ha.

Oh yeah...it wasn't even just BTV you were ranting about. I believe it was actually in the 2012-2013 winter.

You were talking about how you don't get those brutally cold months anymore or those cold outbreaks where it almost hurts to breath. I remember thinking it was funny when VT got their coldest March on record the very next winter (and then got their coldest J,F,M on record the winter after that). I joked "you should be happy now, you were saying how you couldn't buy bitter cold anymore".....I'll have to see if I can find the original post you made. it was a semi-melt. :lol:

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It's a shock to me that BTV is even that high.  Most of that must have fallen in December, or at night, when nobody was awake to care.

Surely, a good storm or two can dent or even overcome the deficit.  We've been saying that for two years, though, and nothing is on the horizon which suggests this will happen.  At best, winter is always 10 days away, but I don't recall even seeing a single warning type event in the 10-day forecast once this winter.  I've frequently seen 3-5 inch events around days 7-10, but those always reduce down to 1-2 and mixed precip or plain rain.  A little look-see at the current 10 day shows exactly that for next week: 3-5 inches on Tuesday and 0.5 inches rain on Wednesday.  F*ing joy.
 



Yeah it looks like our goose is cooked unless a dramatic shift occurs.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Scott, that was an awesome melt. Literally the year after, you had more rain than snow on Jan with bitter cold. I mean the irony is awesome. LOL.

Ha I remember January 2014 as my melt.  I mean that was the worst winter month you could dream of. 

I mean that was terrible.  I just saw a picture of my yard that January with about 3-4" of standing water on top of a rock hard frozen ground.  It rained so much and was still so cold that the water couldn't drain.

Stuff like that is why I have no issues with this winter at this point.  Mansfield is finally coming out of its 1980s type slump and Philly isn't getting 6 winter storm warnings while I pump water out of the basement, lol.

The 2011-2015 stretch is very close to the second half of the 1980s for total snowfall at the mountain.

The bitter cold certainly doesn't get it done...but easy to see why I-95 wants to see -28C at H85 over BTV.  That's a 15F snow pattern on the shore.

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