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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

2,791 posts in this topic

22 hours ago, eyewall said:

You would be nuts to go out there right now for sure. Anyway let's all hope the Euro verifies for next week.

More than one way to get into trouble on the sleds.  Messalonskee Lake, southernmost of the Belgrade group, has had 2 fatals in the past 2 weeks, both at night.  First fellow rode into the open water at the north-end outlet, 2nd was bombing down the shoreline and crashed into some rocks.  Statewide fatals now at 4 - recent avg is 5, down from 10 or so years back when 8-12 was common.

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7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Looks like another warm night. Only hit 30F last night. We should be near zero at this point in the season. We already start turning the corner soon in the temp dept. Pretty mild.

Tomorrow and Sunday are my bottom-of-winter days for temps, averaging 23.5/0.5 12.0, though its being a "live" average (modified with each day's entries) that will likely go up a few tenths this year.  Goes up 2F by the 31st, another 5 by 2/28.

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Just now, tamarack said:

Tomorrow and Sunday are my bottom-of-winter days for temps, averaging 23.5/0.5 12.0, though its being a "live" average (modified with each day's entries) that will likely go up a few tenths this year.  Goes up 2F by the 31st, another 5 by 2/28.

Just saw tomorrow's temp. Ugh 46F down our way. No sledding tomorrow. Hoping to ride Sunday, but trails will probably be beat down. Gotta get this warmth outta here. Next week looks the same.

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14 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Looks like another warm night. Only hit 30F last night. We should be near zero at this point in the season. We already start turning the corner soon in the temp dept. Pretty mild.

Bennington VT hasn't gone below 33F in like 4 days, pretty ugly around here with little to no snow cover in the valley locations and just clouds, mank, and mud.

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What a day!

Crazy inversion with warm sunshine melting the rime and snow off the trees above 3,500ft while it stayed below freezing and snow-caked on the lower mountain.

16177788_10154099806002382_1880934049230

16107462_10154099804867382_4141778440553

16143861_10154099804997382_5078548221909

 

And this is what it looked like under the clouds, haha.

2L8A3880compressed.jpg

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3 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Never get sick of those inversion shots, those are always my favorite.

Good shots as always PF.

Back at the house in Winhal at 1500'. About 6" of some sort of sleet snow cement. Above freezing too. Crazy for mid January in the Greens in all the wrong way

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8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Back at the house in Winhal at 1500'. About 6" of some sort of sleet snow cement. Above freezing too. Crazy for mid January in the Greens in all the wrong way

Yea, I'm sure you saw how bare it was down the valley too as you drove up.

Still a few months to turn it around, but nothing epic so far, that's for sure.

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As Powder posted it was amazing up at altitude and dead calm wind wise. In fact I was overdressed when I hiked up to the Hermit Lake Shelter up the Tuckerman Ravine trail in New Hampshire (Mt. Washington). I took 2 drone flights from there:

16179532_10103980061436889_2824163901654

16179735_10103980061546669_4890319576253

16112771_10103980308426919_4543721442755

16179513_10103980061536689_3803593893114

16178576_10103980061431899_7693860759128

16113040_10103980062619519_6220604621990

16178706_10103980062290179_7136707479662

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2 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

Beautiful shots, eyewall and powderfreak.  To find the sun, one must go up.  Trapped under the inversion down here.

Thank you and that is true!

 

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27 minutes ago, Hitman said:

Sick pics as usual.

nicely quiet in here about the storm.  That's a good sign.  I need to cancel some meetings but the wheels are in motion.

Thank you and not sure if it much to look forward to here so that is why I haven't said much :)

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Winter lives in the NEK of Vermont. Pretty good day to ride, though a bit warm. Never busted through the inversion so snow was still in the trees. 

IMG_0703.JPG

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The weather system expected to come into the area in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is still quite tricky with respect to the thermal profiles, but the BTV NWS is starting to put out some preliminary numbers for the forecast area.  They’re going with 2 to 5 inches of snow/sleet, with higher amounts possible.  That certainly seems sensible for now with the uncertainty, although you can see some outlets like Weather.com are starting to go with some higher numbers in the area.  I added a couple of preliminary maps from AccuWeather and Weather.com below as well; they’re presumably leaning toward some of the snowier solutions.

 

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 350 AM EST Sunday...High pressure retreating far to our north and east and mild air over the North Country will set up for complex thermal profiles as low pressure system approaches from the DelMarVa coast Monday night. Precip north of the low will spread from south to north accompanied by a tight pressure gradient and strong easterly 850mb jet. As precip spreads across the North Country, NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings show warm layer mainly between 800-700mb resulting in widespread wintry mix into Tuesday morning. Models currently suggest sleet/snow mix being the predominant PType for most of the area. With initial surge of moisture expect most areas to see 1-4 inches of snow sleet mix through Tuesday morning. As low continues to track near the coast, reaching SE Long Island midday Tuesday PWATS increase to around three quarters of an inch Monday night and Tuesday. Associated 500mb trough becomes more negatively tilted resulting in warmer air aloft moving into eastern VT and transitioning precip to rain for the latter half of Tuesday. The surface low continues NEwd toward the coast of Maine into Tuesday night with colder air eventually moving into the North Country and ending the precip at snow as it begins to taper off Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Storm total snow/sleet accumulations through 12Z Wednesday will generally range from 2 to 5 inches, with higher amounts possible depending on how long the warm layer remains in place, how quickly the colder air moves in as the surface low moves NE.

 

22JAN17A.jpg

 

22JAN17B.jpg

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3 hours ago, J.Spin said:

The weather system expected to come into the area in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is still quite tricky with respect to the thermal profiles, but the BTV NWS is starting to put out some preliminary numbers for the forecast area.  They’re going with 2 to 5 inches of snow/sleet, with higher amounts possible.  That certainly seems sensible for now with the uncertainty, although you can see some outlets like Weather.com are starting to go with some higher numbers in the area.  I added a couple of preliminary maps from AccuWeather and Weather.com below as well; they’re presumably leaning toward some of the snowier solutions.

 

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 350 AM EST Sunday...High pressure retreating far to our north and east and mild air over the North Country will set up for complex thermal profiles as low pressure system approaches from the DelMarVa coast Monday night. Precip north of the low will spread from south to north accompanied by a tight pressure gradient and strong easterly 850mb jet. As precip spreads across the North Country, NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings show warm layer mainly between 800-700mb resulting in widespread wintry mix into Tuesday morning. Models currently suggest sleet/snow mix being the predominant PType for most of the area. With initial surge of moisture expect most areas to see 1-4 inches of snow sleet mix through Tuesday morning. As low continues to track near the coast, reaching SE Long Island midday Tuesday PWATS increase to around three quarters of an inch Monday night and Tuesday. Associated 500mb trough becomes more negatively tilted resulting in warmer air aloft moving into eastern VT and transitioning precip to rain for the latter half of Tuesday. The surface low continues NEwd toward the coast of Maine into Tuesday night with colder air eventually moving into the North Country and ending the precip at snow as it begins to taper off Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Storm total snow/sleet accumulations through 12Z Wednesday will generally range from 2 to 5 inches, with higher amounts possible depending on how long the warm layer remains in place, how quickly the colder air moves in as the surface low moves NE.

 

22JAN17A.jpg

 

22JAN17B.jpg

I'll take their 8-12 :)

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1 hour ago, alex said:

Looks like I'm in for another major screw job. This has not been a good year to move to Bretton Woods! :(

Twin Mt has been donut holed the last several years. 

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1 hour ago, alex said:

Looks like I'm in for another major screw job. This has not been a good year to move to Bretton Woods! :(

Looks like 4 inches or so here as of now according to NWS so still short of warning level snow but a nice advisory event.

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I’ve been on both the west and east sides of the Northern Greens over the past few days, so I’ll pass along some snowpack updates.  Heading westward from our place on the Waterbury/Bolton line, the snow depths drop off a lot as one works their down to Bolton Flats, and once one passes west of the town of Bolton, the ground is essentially bare.  I was more surprised to see what things looked like off to the east today – there’s very little snow in the center of Waterbury, with plenty of bare/patchy lawns.  Most surprising was to see the same thing in the center of Stowe Village.  The snowpack builds as one heads up the mountain road though, and it’s quite hearty once you get up to The Matterhorn around the 1,000’ elevation.  I’d say that there’s slightly more at that elevation that what we’ve got at our location.

 

The snow depths simply skyrocket after that, and Mansfield’s snowpack is quite impressive.  This shouldn’t be too surprising with 52” at the Mt. Mansfield Stake, but it’s still impressive to get out there and experience it first hand.  We skied the Bypass Chutes, as well as Goat and Starr from the top.  While coverage isn’t yet perfect on those, it’s pretty darned good, and that says a lot if those pitches are reasonably covered.  I was concerned about what the snow surfaces were going to be like with the cloudy conditions today, but the snow was beautifully soft at all elevations with temperatures in the 30s F.  The Nosedive Glades were fantastic – and they’ve definitely done some additional clearing in there to enhance some of the lines.  Overall today was actually like being out there on one of those awesome soft days in April with the hefty snowpack.  I’d say the main drawback on the hill today was the visibility, since we were in the clouds the whole time.  In some elevation bands it was pea soup, but it was more reasonable than at many elevations.

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2 hours ago, alex said:

Looks like I'm in for another major screw job. This has not been a good year to move to Bretton Woods! :(

The NNE mtns giveth and taketh away, downsloping being the taketh.

I feel your pain, im expecting a complete pellet fest here and maybe some ZR with the downsloping winds causing all sorts of warm nose intrusions above the surface. 

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Winter Weather Advisories were announced by the BTV NWS this afternoon, so I’ve got the latest maps and text below.  The general call for accumulations seems to be in the 2-6” range as noted earlier.

 

22JAN17C.jpg

 

22JAN17D.jpg

 

WWUS41 KBTV 221931

WSWBTV

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

231 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

 

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-231015-

/O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0002.170124T0000Z-170125T0300Z/

NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-

SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-

WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-

WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-

CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-

WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-

EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MASSENA, MALONE, PLATTSBURGH, STAR LAKE,

SARANAC LAKE, TUPPER LAKE, DANNEMORA, LAKE PLACID, PORT HENRY,

TICONDEROGA, OGDENSBURG, POTSDAM, GOUVERNEUR, ALBURGH,

SOUTH HERO, ST. ALBANS, NEWPORT, ISLAND POND, BURLINGTON,

JOHNSON, STOWE, ST. JOHNSBURY, MONTPELIER, MIDDLEBURY, VERGENNES,

BRADFORD, RANDOLPH, RUTLAND, SPRINGFIELD, WHITE RIVER JUNCTION,

ENOSBURG FALLS, RICHFORD, UNDERHILL, BRISTOL, RIPTON,

EAST WALLINGFORD, AND KILLINGTON

231 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM

EST TUESDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT

FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY.

 

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND

  NORTHERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST

  KINGDOM.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 6 INCHES OF

  HEAVY WET SNOW AND SLEET...ALONG WITH A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF

  AN INCH OF ICE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY

  MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

 

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN

  VERMONT ON MONDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY OVER SPREADS THE REGION

  OVERNIGHT...WHILE BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES.

 

* IMPACTS...A HAZARDOUS TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS

  ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES

  DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.

 

* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH

  POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.

 

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS

  IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S TUESDAY.

 

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

 

&&

 

$$

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If this were December, I'd be saying that tonights storm is great for base building. However, we're not in December. Warm pocket of warm air is well modeled at about 850mb tonight through most of the day tomorrow. Looks like a classic set-up for sleet/frozen balls.  January is sure turning into a very "meh" month in terms of weather. 

 

 

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There’s definitely been an increase in the BTV NWS projected totals in this area for the upcoming storm – there are some areas of 8-12” shading for the higher elevations on the projected accumulations map, and the Winter Weather Advisory text now mentions totals up to 8 inches.  The current point forecast for our area suggests a general 4-8” of total accumulation.  Updated maps and text are below:

 

23JAN17A.jpg

 

23JAN17B.jpg

 

 

WWUS41 KBTV 230855

WSWBTV

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

355 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

 

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-232200-

/O.CON.KBTV.WW.Y.0002.170124T0000Z-170125T0300Z/

NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-

SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-

WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-

WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-

CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-

WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-

EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MASSENA, MALONE, PLATTSBURGH, STAR LAKE,

SARANAC LAKE, TUPPER LAKE, DANNEMORA, LAKE PLACID, PORT HENRY,

TICONDEROGA, OGDENSBURG, POTSDAM, GOUVERNEUR, ALBURGH,

SOUTH HERO, ST. ALBANS, NEWPORT, ISLAND POND, BURLINGTON,

JOHNSON, STOWE, ST. JOHNSBURY, MONTPELIER, MIDDLEBURY, VERGENNES,

BRADFORD, RANDOLPH, RUTLAND, SPRINGFIELD, WHITE RIVER JUNCTION,

ENOSBURG FALLS, RICHFORD, UNDERHILL, BRISTOL, RIPTON,

EAST WALLINGFORD, AND KILLINGTON

355 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS

EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING

TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY.

 

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF CENTRAL...EASTERN...

  AND NORTHERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND

  NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF

  HEAVY WET SNOW AND SLEET...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

  SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

  MORNING.

 

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN

  VERMONT BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT, AND THEN ACROSS NORTHERN

  VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

 

* IMPACTS...A HAZARDOUS TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS ANTICIPATED...

  ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE

  COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.

 

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TODAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER

  20S TONIGHT.

 

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

 

&&

 

$$

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3 hours ago, adk said:

If this were December, I'd be saying that tonights storm is great for base building. However, we're not in December. Warm pocket of warm air is well modeled at about 850mb tonight through most of the day tomorrow. Looks like a classic set-up for sleet/frozen balls.  January is sure turning into a very "meh" month in terms of weather. 

 

 

I'm expecting 1-2" snow, then sleet. After 40's on weds/thurs, we'll be looking at a net loss. Pack is really thin.

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