WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 4th/5th storm is fairly close to a light front-end event on the 18z GFS. Temps sub freezing when precip arrives in the entire column down to 925mb and near freezing from 925-surface. And several ens members now bring the precip much further north with a couple turning this into a substantial event for the mid Atlantic. Not a snow event though. I could see a front end changing over to a cold rain. Still, it's interesting to watch the evolution of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 The biggest flag with the 4th/5th deal is even if a leading edge of WWA precip makes it with the midlevels being ok, the precip looks pretty light and the surface will likely be above freezing. At least in my yard anyways. I'm extremely skeptical that any closer burbs and certainly the cities will get on the board beyond a trace if anything happens. You farther north and west folks would obviously have the best chance at measuring something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The biggest flag with the 4th/5th deal is even if a leading edge of WWA precip makes it with the midlevels being ok, the precip looks pretty light and the surface will likely be above freezing. At least in my yard anyways. I'm extremely skeptical that any closer burbs and certainly the cities will get on the board beyond a trace if anything happens. You farther north and west folks would obviously have the best chance at measuring something. You're right of course, but maybe a shot at seeing first flakes in some spots before some 35F rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The biggest flag with the 4th/5th deal is even if a leading edge of WWA precip makes it with the midlevels being ok, the precip looks pretty light and the surface will likely be above freezing. At least in my yard anyways. I'm extremely skeptical that any closer burbs and certainly the cities will get on the board beyond a trace if anything happens. You farther north and west folks would obviously have the best chance at measuring something. But that's as modeled now. The 18z and some of the members are a bit different from 12z. My thoughts go to what it might look like after a few more runs. Of course a further north trend brings more warmth. This thing is likely a big nothing but I do like watching the changes run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But that's as modeled now. The 18z and some of the members are a bit different from 12z. My thoughts go to what it might look like after a few more runs. Of course a further north trend brings more warmth. This thing is likely a big nothing but I do like watching the changes run to run. If you enjoy run to run changes, might I suggest: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But that's as modeled now. The 18z and some of the members are a bit different from 12z. My thoughts go to what it might look like after a few more runs. Of course a further north trend brings more warmth. This thing is likely a big nothing but I do like watching the changes run to run. The only part of the ens spread that I like is the off the coast with no west track or parent low option is still there. Doesn't seem likely but we can't totally write it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Probably not going to make much difference but 0z gifs has a stronger high north of the Great Lakes this run. By the way, this is for Sunday night. ETA: Well, it did for one panel! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 on some models, sw trough is replaced with a eastern trough, a big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Dec 8th is my target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like Ukie and Euro swapped positions for the Dec 4/5 storm...now euro is ejecting s/w energy quicker while Ukie holds back. But the biggest problem as others have stated is the lack of cold air even with a ok low track it seems cold is lifting out quick. But still worth keeping one eye on I suppose. For now, I think it's worth watching just to see if we can continue some semblance of storminess. I'm not going to get greedy yet, even if December snow pretty much rocks. I just want to see precip at this point, given the lack thereof over the last couple months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 problem solved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Overnight ensembles came in decidedly warmer down the line. Still below normal on the means d9-15 but less impressive. The first cold shot is still right on time but what happens after is getting muddier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Overnight ensembles came in decidedly warmer down the line. Still below normal on the means d9-15 but less impressive. The first cold shot is still right on time but what happens after is getting muddier. I have probably been more restrained about my excitement for December over the last week or two then some, of course that could be expectations. If all we are looking for is a chance at flakes, and perhaps a minor event or two the pattern looks fine, but if we want anything significant I am much more skeptical. It is not that the pattern looks hostile at all, but December is still pretty early for much of our area, and usually to get a really good pattern this early we need one of the pattern drivers (NAO, AO, EPO, PNA ext) to line up our way in a dominant way. Right now I am seeing a whole lot of conflicting or neutral signals. We are kind of relying on a fluid evolving pattern and the movement of cold/inertia to dump the trough and cold into our area. Even if we did get a true arctic dump of air this early there is the chance it would be in and out before any organized system can take advantage of it. If we are looking at this same kind of pattern come January or early February I would be much more optimistic. I just feel like if we want more then conversational snow we need one of the pattern drivers to line up in a more favorable way. I also think there are some signs this mid December pattern could be just a transition towards a better pattern later if blocking reloads but that is way way way out in "reading the tea leaves" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 think the only one looking for dec snow near here is JB and possibly the euro model, which I believe shows some pretty health snowfall amts in our immediate area. I dont know climo, but in my 68 years, all but 8 here, snow in dec is pretty rare. Just one additional comment euro shows a 46 day total, which, at this point goes into jan 2017, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 minute ago, mdsnowlover said: think the only one looking for dec snow near here is JB and possibly the euro model, which I believe shows some pretty health snowfall amts in our immediate area. I dont know climo, but in my 68 years, all but 8 here, snow in dec is pretty rare. True except some of the decent analog years to this year did have healthy early season snowfalls so perhaps I let that get my hopes up that this could be one of those 1/10 years we get real snow pre xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 yes in the bitterly cold early winter of 87 or 88 we had snow in mid october thru dec, but that is truly an exception to our winter history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 @psuhoffman I'm only looking for patterns that put us in the game for anything. Basically not having a shutout pattern again. Outside of 2009, my yard hasn't cracked 4" in Dec for over 10 years (2005). Even 13/14 was 3.75" and all that fell before the 15th. So my expectations are very sensible. There hasn't been a hint of a big storm pattern from what I've seen. But some decent looks for the more typical flawed/light/mixed deals. I don't really look beyond 2 weeks and even in that window is fraught with peril. lol. If things look great closing out the month I'll be stoked but I don't spend much time thinking about that. I don't think anyone on this sub would complain with even a 1-4" region wide in the next 2-3 weeks. I would say we are at least in the game for something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman I'm only looking for patterns that put us in the game for anything. Basically not having a shutout pattern again. Outside of 2009, my yard hasn't cracked 4" in Dec for over 10 years (2005). Even 13/14 was 3.75" and all that fell before the 15th. So my expectations are very sensible. There hasn't been a hint of a big storm pattern from what I've seen. But some decent looks for the more typical flawed/light/mixed deals. I don't really look beyond 2 weeks and even in that window is fraught with peril. lol. If things look great closing out the month I'll be stoked but I don't spend much time thinking about that. I don't think anyone on this sub would complain with even a 1-4" region wide in the next 2-3 weeks. I would say we are at least in the game for something like that. Best line of the thread. Even the ensemble mean has been dicey beyond d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 50 minutes ago, mappy said: problem solved We need this to continue (and for me to get more rain :lol:). I want to see a more active pattern getting established. It doesn't have to be above normal or anything, but just something that wants to deliver precip on a fairly regular basis. I'm not normally on the "get the precip in here and cold will eventually line up with it" train, but I'm thinking that we'll get our cold, so we need the atmosphere to prove that it wants to deliver moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 18 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said: we're supposed to get a reduction taxes under new admin, so your idea is mute lol!!! lol @ "mute". Anyway, like Chill said, no point in getting worked up for a 2 week plus outlook either way. I'm fully prepared to write Dec off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol @ "mute". Anyway, like Chill said, no point in getting worked up for a 2 week plus outlook either way. I'm fully prepared to write Dec off. What's the point of deleting his (and my) post if you're going to quote his for posterity and amusement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 yes wrong word used lol!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Thursday night snow showers maybe re: Dec 9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 hour ago, mattie g said: What's the point of deleting his (and my) post if you're going to quote his for posterity and amusement? Uh, I didn't moderate it, so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 12z GFS is boring except at the very end... when we get a CAD set up at 360 Though there is absolutely brutal cold air in British Columbia moving SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 31 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Uh, I didn't moderate it, so.... I like snow. I hope it snows on December 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 12z GEFS looks... not that bad IMO... weathfella in the SNE thread has it as being awesome lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 2 hours ago, mattie g said: What's the point of deleting his (and my) post if you're going to quote his for posterity and amusement? randy didn't hide the posts, fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 15 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GEFS looks... not that bad IMO... weathfella in the SNE thread has it as being awesome lol Does the Perler Vertix split? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, mappy said: randy didn't hide the posts, fyi. <shakes fist> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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