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November Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Same here. :) Not sure how it is throwing out those type numbers though. Temps are marginal at best on the surface with mid to upper 30's throughout the region. The 850's are not much better where it stays north and west of the cities for the most part. 

actually -- 850s are plenty cold enough

850tw.conus.png

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Same here. :) Not sure how it is throwing out those type numbers though. Temps are marginal at best on the surface with mid to upper 30's throughout the region. The 850's are not much better where it stays north and west of the cities for the most part. 

850s on the eps have a favorable look from what I've seen, but the surface could be different.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016111500/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_namer_7.png

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If the main Low doesn't produce east of the Apps, you never know how any lake effect streamers would develop at this range.  The GFS has hinted at some activity, but nwp science is not as reliable for such activity at this range.

eta: Impressive air mass for this time of year!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

50/50 and west-based -NAO and I'm in...even in super-early December. Something to dust the Christmas lights, if only for a few hours, would be awesome.

Just get it in here before the 4th, or I'll miss it...

that's perfect! we need it to happen while you are set to be away again. then you can pull some strings and come back in time for it. 

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1 hour ago, PaEasternWX said:

The big question is, will the current NAO forecast bust?

I wouldn't trust any -NAO forecast right now. Models have been significantly over estimating blocking in the North Atlantic for months. Particularly the GFS. Here is the temperature bias of the last several GFS run at hour 168. Off the charts too warm with the -NAO and too cold over us.

With the current state of the EPAC, a -NAO is our only cold delivery mechanism so I'm not getting too excited about day 11-15 cold prospects. Yet....

IMG_2840.JPG

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On October 27, 2016 at 9:52 AM, WinterWxLuvr said:

At some point prior to the first of December, I expect we will see our first real cold front sweep through, perhaps some flurries or snow showers as well as the first upslope snow event for the mountains to our west.  I think that will lay the foundation for December by establishing some meaningful cold air, cold(er) ground, etc.

Seems that this scenario is unfolding.

I doubt we see much of anything outside of scattered flurries over the next ten days but I do think it's possible that at the end of that stretch we find ourselves in an environment much more conducive to snow events.

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Seems that this scenario is unfolding.

I doubt we see much of anything outside of scattered flurries over the next ten days but I do think it's possible that at the end of that stretch we find ourselves in an environment much more conducive to snow events.

November is unfolding like a typical late fall season as you describe. I'm not as excited about late November/early December. The PAC is still somewhat hostile and I'm not confident in the forecast magnitude of the -NAO. Canada is on fire door to door because of the PAC/QBO....but we should be cooler than average as opposed to wearing shorts by the end of the month which is nice. 

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Weeklies look decent. Week 3 progresses from a trough west/ridge east to a persistent trough east/-epo/+pna config through the end of the run. General -ao/nao idea too. After a warmish week 3, h5 would imply below normal for the rest of Dec into early Jan and a favorable look for snow chances in the MA.  Would take the run as reality in a heartbeat but it will remain fantasy for at least several weeks...lol

 

 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies look decent. Week 3 progresses from a trough west/ridge east to a persistent trough east/-epo/+pna config through the end of the run. General -ao/nao idea too. After a warmish week 3, h5 would imply below normal for the rest of Dec into early Jan and a favorable look for snow chances in the MA.  Would take the run as reality in a heartbeat but it will remain fantasy for at least several weeks...lol

 

 

I believe the Japanese model shows the same evolution Bob. Also, the forecast drop by some ensemble members regarding the AO is really crazy.   I saw as low as - 5. Plus ,the GFS zonal winds forecast are aggressive with a wind reversal in early December .    

In addition, I see mention in the NYC thread of the beginning of a major pattern change over the Northern Hemisphere by day 10, with changes over Siberia . 

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25 minutes ago, frd said:

I believe the Japanese model shows the same evolution Bob. Also, the forecast drop by some ensemble members regarding the AO is really crazy.   I saw as low as - 5. Plus ,the GFS zonal winds forecast are aggressive with a wind reversal in early December .    

In addition, I see mention in the NYC thread of the beginning of a major pattern change over the Northern Hemisphere by day 10, with changes over Siberia . 

Things look ecouraging in general but one thing that sticks in my mind is the neg ao/nao was first pegged for mid month. Delayed but not denied seems to be on the table. The shift in the pac will probably be delayed too. 

The -epo is probably the most ecouraging part of the run. NA has just been overrun with pac air. December snow climo around here needs quite a bit to go right. We don't need cross polar flow or anything that extreme. But we do need a good cold source that can survive moderation. Right now we're starting to see what could potentionally be a shift in the pac jet that will finally give Canada a chance to build some good cold hp's. 

All guidance is looking active and stormy across much of the US towards the end of the monto and beyond. Thats a good sign. Storms undercutting a block is a pretty traditional way to get snow in the east. I hope guidance two weeks down the road hangs on and starts giving us at least some good chances in Dec. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Things look ecouraging in general but one thing that sticks in my mind is the neg ao/nao was first pegged for mid month. Delayed but not denied seems to be on the table. The shift in the pac will probably be delayed too. 

The -epo is probably the most ecouraging part of the run. NA has just been overrun with pac air. December snow climo around here needs quite a bit to go right. We don't need cross polar flow or anything that extreme. But we do need a good cold source that can survive moderation. Right now we're starting to see what could potentionally be a shift in the pac jet that will finally give Canada a chance to build some good cold hp's. 

All guidance is looking active and stormy across much of the US towards the end of the monto and beyond. Thats a good sign. Storms undercutting a block is a pretty traditional way to get snow in the east. I hope guidance two weeks down the road hangs on and starts giving us at least some good chances in Dec. 

Thanks Bob,  I enjoy your thoughts as always and your Weatherbell access for the winter season was a god move :-)   

Speaking of the - EPO, I believe there may be a relationship between a - EPO and the - NAO. As you know the temperature impact here from a - AO grows more and more likely as we head towards late November and early December. Maybe this Christmas time i will not be outside in shorts tossing the Frisbee.  

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