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WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones


1900hurricane
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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Data equipment and communications obviously failed at the airport on Itbayat.

Well the 18z report had the pressure jump back up to 983hPa (50hPa jump in 1 hour lol)... 933hPa seems pretty high given the island was under the eye for a moment... maybe it bottomed out in between reports??

also winds down to 64kph and 90kph in Itbayat and Basco, respectively... i'm afraid to see the reports out of there today, home to about 18k people

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Well the 18z report had the pressure jump back up to 983hPa (50hPa jump in 1 hour lol)... 933hPa seems pretty high given the island was under the eye for a moment... maybe it bottomed out in between reports??

also winds down to 64kph and 90kph in Itbayat and Basco, respectively... i'm afraid to see the reports out of there today, home to about 18k people

Ok, great! It wasn't showing any changes for several hours. Glad they're up. Anxious to see what they have to report besides.

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6 minutes ago, patrick05 said:

Well the 18z report had the pressure jump back up to 983hPa (50hPa jump in 1 hour lol)... 933hPa seems pretty high given the island was under the eye for a moment... maybe it bottomed out in between reports??

also winds down to 64kph and 90kph in Itbayat and Basco, respectively... i'm afraid to see the reports out of there today, home to about 18k people

It might be a faulty report. The island was still in the eye at 18Z.

vMRguIt.png

Alternatively, I've seen some speculation that the 9 should be replaced with an 8.

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9 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said:

It might be a faulty report. The island was still in the eye at 18Z.

vMRguIt.png

Alternatively, I've seen some speculation that the 9 should be replaced with an 8.

the airport is near the S end of the island, in or next to the eyewall.  If that 9 was replaced with an 8 then the central pressure would probably be sub 870.

i think the sensor is just wonky because a super typhoon just hit it.  the 883 theory is just too crazy to believe.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

the airport is near the S end of the island, in or next to the eyewall.  If that 9 was replaced with an 8 then the central pressure would probably be sub 870.

i think the sensor is just wonky because a super typhoon just hit it.  the 883 theory is just too crazy to believe.

 

 

Yep, that's what I think too. While I won't completely dismiss the 883 mb theory, I also think it is unlikely.

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Lanyu (Orchid Island) offshore to east of south tip of Taiwan recently reporting gusts to near 60 m/sec which translates to about 135 mph. Track prediction is off the southwest coast of Taiwan, at least cat-2 if not cat-3 conditions could spread across that region today, and if track is any closer, cat-4 is possible. Penghu Island off west coast of Taiwan will eventually take almost a direct hit, their hope lies in eventual weakening by that time (about 18z), storm still looks very strong on satellite (which can be accessed from same website as the radar above). 

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Hengchun near south tip of Taiwan has 15-min updates of all parameters ... currently 966 mb and 8 inches of rain in 9.5 hours with wind gusts to 180 km/hr (about 112 mph). 

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/real/46759.htm

There was a buoy off the south coast reporting but it went down around 00z. Radar shows eye about 50 nm south of this location.

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Malakas went through the Yaeyama Islands earlier this morning (Japan Time) with the center passing right over the small island of Yonaguni-jima...

Highest sustained wind speed was 45.1m/s (88kt) and highest gust was 66.8m/s (130kt); both recorded before the eye moved through... lowest pressure was 936.9hPa recorded an hour after...

very cool to have such data recorded... shame Basco's and Itbayat's equipment failed just when the eye was going through with Meranti...

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Typhoon Malakas at about the strongest point. The people of Taiwan must feel like a bad weather magnet recently. Typhoon Malakas maxed out at Cat 4, 115 kt at Sept. 16, 18z, reasonably close to Taiwan. Image is from Sept. 16, 2020z. Now it is moving toward southwestern Japan.

 

VXU8uM9.gif

 

 

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Typhoon Malakas at about the strongest point. The people of Taiwan must feel like a bad weather magnet recently. Typhoon Malakas maxed out at Cat 4, 115 kt at Sept. 16, 18z, reasonably close to Taiwan. Image is from Sept. 16, 2020z. Now it is moving toward southwestern Japan.

 

VXU8uM9.gif

 

 

Is it just me or does the JTWC have a tendency to over estimate wind speeds. That doesn't look on par with a cat 4 due to a filled eye and no convection north of the center. Wasn't an issue on meranti before it entered the south China sea. Then I think they were over a little. I see lots of storms given ratings, that, based on satellite appearances do not look that steong. However I'm not familiar with the Dvorak classification or whatever thing they use to determine pressure and intensity.

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On 9/18/2016 at 0:34 AM, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Is it just me or does the JTWC have a tendency to over estimate wind speeds. That doesn't look on par with a cat 4 due to a filled eye and no convection north of the center. Wasn't an issue on meranti before it entered the south China sea. Then I think they were over a little. I see lots of storms given ratings, that, based on satellite appearances do not look that steong. However I'm not familiar with the Dvorak classification or whatever thing they use to determine pressure and intensity.

The typical JTWC biases are actually to be too low when a storm is strengthening or near peak intensity and then constrain the storm too high once it has begun weakening. The 2015 Typhoon Season was actually stripped of about 20*10^4 kt^2 between the operational and final best track data largely because of over-constraining a weakening storm.

However, in this case I'd say JTWC's intensity estimate was pretty good. Keep in mind that in order to make a real time intensity estimate (in this case, at 18Z), only the data up to that point is available to be used, so in this case, the data mainly used came from between 12Z and 18Z (images below are from 1650Z).

2016WP18_4KMSRBDC_201609161650.jpg

2016WP18_4KMIRIMG_201609161650.GIF

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JTWC Prognostic Reasoning on Typhoon Megi (75 kt)

Quote

 TY MEGI WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ALONG THE 
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS REACHING A PEAK 
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO 
REMAIN FAVORABLE.

 

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Incoming Megi approaching Taiwan for probable direct hit north-central late today into tonight local time (which is 8h ahead of GMT so around 12-15z Tuesday). At time of posting, 1940z = 0340h Tuesday 27th in Taiwan Standard Time. This is the time stamp on radar link below.

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/

Current forecast intensity appears to be high end cat 2 or low cat 3 in NATL terms, dropping to 1/2 by time the eye leaves western Taiwan (on current forecasts that would be 20z Tuesday). 

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The town Josh was last in has reported winds gusting 80-100 mph for at least 4 hrs now.....that's a long time to deal with winds like that.....haven't seen any reports over 105ish though so far at any of the obs sites on the east coast.......

 

this location gusting to 120 mph looks to be in the north eyewall never got the center...

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/real/46706.htm

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