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WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones


1900hurricane
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17 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
1 hour ago, yoda said:
Not sure if where this goes... so if not here please tell me where

 
 

This would be the place.

They didn't mention the lowest pressure, I wonder what it was?  And in terms of wind, is this number five in the world behind Patricia, Haiyan, Tip and David?  Those are the 4 190+ mph storms I know of.

 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Developing Tropical Storm Lam in the Pacific could make for some dangerous situations in Japan, and some interesting satellite images as it tracks northwards and merges with the westerlies, after being 130 kt. (Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.) It's kind of amazing this could go from 10 degrees North to the Bering Sea or nearby.

i33rR3y.gif

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44 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Hi!

In the mid-range, this storm could be near Tokyo (see the JTWC forecast.) In the long range, this powerful storm now looks to recurve more east of Japan, rather than heading more north towards the mid-Bering Sea.

 

Cu5rRfR.gif

More convection on the NW side now. Should start to intensify rapidly.   Euro would be a major hit for nearly all of Japan.

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14 hours ago, Amped said:

More convection on the NW side now. Should start to intensify rapidly.   Euro would be a major hit for nearly all of Japan.

this is a classic case of the euro's tendency to overdeepen storms in the WPAC at that latitude. it did the same thing with NORU earlier this season and LIONROCK last year. it's late october, nothing that strong and that tropical is hitting that far N into japan.

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5 hours ago, cmasty1978 said:

this is a classic case of the euro's tendency to overdeepen storms in the WPAC at that latitude. it did the same thing with NORU earlier this season and LIONROCK last year. it's late october, nothing that strong and that tropical is hitting that far N into japan.

I really don't know whats killing convection on the north side, there  doesn't seem to be enough shear or dry air to account for that look.   Maybe the storms just too damn big.

A 200mb right entrance region should start aiding it in about 24hrs,  so pressure falls can resume despite the crappy structure.

 

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I really don't know whats killing convection on the north side, there  doesn't seem to be enough shear or dry air to account for that look. Maybe the storms just too damn big.

 

A 200mb right entrance region should start aiding it in about 24hrs,  so pressure falls can resume despite the crappy structure.

You nailed it. That has been the issue. Lam developed as multiple surface circulations formed within a large surface trough. Over the past week, surface vorts have been competing within the large gyre. When you have that scenario, deep convection within one vort can suppress convection or create subsidence that affects parts of the overall core structure. However, it looks like a deep band is getting established and a dominate vortex will take over. The SSTs are plenty warm up to southern Japan. It may not reach Super Typhoon status, but I think it will definitly be a Cat 3/4 before the the typhoon nears Japan. Perhaps holds intensity enough to landfall as a 3.
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2 hours ago, Windspeed said:
2 hours ago, Amped said:
I really don't know whats killing convection on the north side, there  doesn't seem to be enough shear or dry air to account for that look. Maybe the storms just too damn big.

 

A 200mb right entrance region should start aiding it in about 24hrs,  so pressure falls can resume despite the crappy structure.

You nailed it. That has been the issue. Lam developed as multiple surface circulations formed within a large surface trough. Over the past week, surface vorts have been competing within the large gyre. When you have that scenario, deep convection within one vort can suppress convection or create subsidence that affects parts of the overall core structure. However, it looks like a deep band is getting established and a dominate vortex will take over. The SSTs are plenty warm up to southern Japan. It may not reach Super Typhoon status, but I think it will definitly be a Cat 3/4 before the the typhoon nears Japan. Perhaps holds intensity enough to landfall as a 3.

Latest microwave pass says big but healthy.   HWRF shows a decent 36hrs ahead.

RFi2Prq.jpg

Edit: Also you can see a second band on Himawari 8  rapidly making the core symmetric. Probably bombs away for real this time.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=himawari-8/himawari-8_band_03_sector_04&width=1020&height=720&number_of_images_to_display=48&loop_speed_ms=100

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Latest microwave pass says big but healthy.   HWRF shows a decent 36hrs ahead.

RFi2Prq.jpg&key=c91247d02337805bf4e01d59955350086f021972a5743963cb68c1719ec71d06

Edit: Also you can see a second band on Himawari 8  rapidly making the core symmetric. Probably bombs away for real this time.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=himawari-8/himawari-8_band_03_sector_04&width=1020&height=720&number_of_images_to_display=48&loop_speed_ms=100


Yeah, Lam likely matures into a large and powerful typhoon with a big stable eye over the next 24-36 hrs.
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Lan is rapidly intensifying. ADT CI# is 112 kts and rising fast. Colder tops and the CDO is expanding NW of the 50nm wide eye now, which has warmed significantly the past few hours. Still 24-36 hrs of low-to-moderate shear but with an ever increasing 200mb poleward jet steak. The diameter of the eye will slowly contract some and I suspect ADT will hit 130 kts or more before Lan begins to weaken. JTCW will probably re-up the intensity forecast some. This is a massive-sized core, but perhaps a Super Typhoon is still a possibilty afterall.a005c5e33a39e4ba4af7900da21002a4.gif

Edit: Good grief, to be so short, this typhoon's name is plaguing me. I keep hitting the freakin' m key!

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JTWC now up to 130 kts and forecast to peak at 140 kts over the next 12 hrs.

ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 50NM ROUND EYE, WHICH PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. STY 25W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED (RI) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 75 KNOTS TO 130 KNOTS (55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY POLEWARD, WHICH IS TAPPING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER JAPAN. A 201838Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH FRAGMENTED SPIRAL BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0 (115 KNOTS) TO T7.0 (140 KNOTS). STY 25W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, PEAK INTENSITY IS NOW SET AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON THE ONGOING RI PHASE. ADDITIONALLY, INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS UNUSUALLY EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS. B. EIR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EYE WOBBLE, HOWEVER, STY 25W IS TRACKING GENERALLY POLEWARD TOWARD CENTRAL JAPAN. STY LAN SHOULD PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES JAPAN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, STY 25W WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. STY 25W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, AND PROXIMITY OF COLD-SURGE WINDS AND GRADIENT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER JAPAN.
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11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I agree this has the potential to be a big hit for Japan. Though Lan won't hold this intensity, the fast movement will mitigate rapid weakening. This very well could be an upper end Cat 3 landfall for populated areas.21608cffcef8e53e03b1e9060289daa1.jpg

EPS mean is almost right over Tokyo. Going to get a huge surge up the bay with that track.  This thing probably has a lot more integrated kinnetic energy than Isabel or Sandy.

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EPS mean is almost right over Tokyo. Going to get a huge surge up the bay with that track.  This thing probably has a lot more integrated kinnetic energy than Isabel or Sandy.
I agree that it is a little concerning that both majors have the core coming ashore left of Tokyo and Yokohama. That does increase right front surge potential for Tokyo Bay. But they do have a system of sea walls and dikes to handle tsunamis and surge, though the upper west portion of the bay could have issues if it surpasses 2-3 meters. It would still cause a lot of damage but hopefully not result in casualties. Worst cast would be the right side of the core running directly up the bay. The track would need to be exactly postioned and Lan has that potential. Still, even 40 hrs out, it could shift a bit. Let's see what 24 more hrs of modeling brings with interaction of the southwesterly flow at that positon. Hopefully the JMA is alerting the government and getting people in close promixity to the bay shoreline / water front aware.
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