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1900hurricane

WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

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16 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That's a monster impact for whoever was in Harold's eyewall. Sounds like limited population but the initial hit then recovery then even stronger hit on the second island will be devastating for whoever was in that storm's path.

Couple videos have surfaced just waiting to see if they are legit or not.

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8 hours ago, shaggy said:

Couple videos have surfaced just waiting to see if they are legit or not.

Can you post links? Thanks. Wish Josh had been able to chase this one. Looked high end at both landfalls

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Bad timing perhaps. Harold's latest ERC looks to have completed and some reintensification may underway just before landfall on Kadavu Island:5383fb45defc66f76b42ac3a21a7000a.gif

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Might as well revive this thread as it looks like the tropics briefly turn active in the WPAC and BOB. TD 01 in the looks like it should make landfall in the Philippines as typhoon as conditions look quite favorable ahead of it as it tracks around the subtropical ridge.

The ECMWF solution in the BOB is what really grabs my attention however. It's never a good thing when the Euro is showing a storm as such in this region. Long ways out on that one so things will most definitely change, but the potential is there. 

 

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Vongfong has managed to intensify into a compact category 3 typhoon. Earlier forecasts had it passing just north of Samar, but I don't think it's going to avoid the island at this point. Between it and some of the solutions for 91B, it appears the NHEM tropics are beginning to wake up for the season.

yhzjv0k.gif

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Models are showing a powerful cyclone hitting the northern Bay of Bengal coast next week.  There has not been one in that area in quite a long time.  That area used to be ground zero for huge death totals back in the 20th century.

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The Euro and UK now take the Bay of Bengal system a bit farther west, at least scraping the Indian coast with the center.  The GFS still has a n/nne track into Bangladesh.

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Amphan in the Bay of Bengal up to Category 4 status, rapid intensification occurring.

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Amphan is likely a Cat 5 Saffir-Simpson right now. But it has a very tiny core. Outer banding is also clearly intensifying and consolidating a circular structure on MW. An ERC within 24 hrs will be underway. The real question is what happens after that ERC for the low-delta and coastal plain. Will a larger eyewall begin intensification prior to landfall or will Amphan struggle through landfall? Varying landfall intensities with a larger eyewall could be mitigatable or catastrophic event for Bangladesh. All we can so at this point is wait and see how Amphan morphs and evolves.62d93ce1d4f9bcb2b7d6025573016b3c.jpg&key=9e15682d82372bb66da6fea4d3e2d35930457c53e9285d5058f591dcd08806c8

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Eyewall replacement is now under way, and some of the first signs are beginning to show up on IR. Amphan is still just an absolute convective mauler though. A nearby sounding from the Nicobar Islands has the EL above 100 mb.

0Atbuto.png

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14 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said:

Eyewall replacement is now under way, and some of the first signs are beginning to show up on IR. Amphan is still just an absolute convective mauler though. A nearby sounding from the Nicobar Islands has the EL above 100 mb.

0Atbuto.png

Hey—can you explain more what I should be looking at here? Is it the CAPE values?

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Eyewall replacement has completed, but ENE shear is beginning to make itself known. Recent microwave imagery shows it eating away at the structure on the eastern side. When viewing water vapor imagery, the thunderstorm anvils to the east of Amphan clearly show the shear vector. The shear direction may become slightly more favorable as guidance shows it gaining a more southerly component as Amphan moves north, but that should be canceled out by the increasing magnitude over the same time frame. My expectation is that Amphan will be weakening from here on out.

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9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hey—can you explain more what I should be looking at here? Is it the CAPE values?

It's not so much the CAPE values themselves as it is how tall the CAPE profile is. It extends past 100 mb and off the top of the SHARPpy skew-T. The output on the far right of the same table that displays the CAPE and other values shows the parcel should finally stop rising almost 18 km up! Lifting a saturated parcel that high releases a huge amount of latent heat.

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7 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said:

It's not so much the CAPE values themselves as it is how tall the CAPE profile is. It extends past 100 mb and off the top of the SHARPpy skew-T. The output on the far right of the same table that displays the CAPE and other values shows the parcel should finally stop rising almost 18 km up! Lifting a saturated parcel that high releases a huge amount of latent heat.

Wow, I see it now. Thank you!

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I can't see the center, but it's likely way west of the forecast track

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