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1900hurricane

WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

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2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Incredible inner micro-vortex....fe69c6b29f8c250b63b5689c781aa3ef.gif

Don't think I've ever seen something like this before. Is it usual in cyclones?

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Don't think I've ever seen something like this before. Is it usual in cyclones?

Rare is a better term. I mentioned some others above: Pam, Patricia, Wilma, Gilbert and Allen all had similar structures. There have been a number of others that developed a super intense >5nm micro-vortex eyewall within a much larger banded concentric envelope. Still, it's not something we see with regards to such extreme sub 890 hpa estimated intensities on a yearly basis. Think perhaps once every 5-10 years globally within the satellite era.
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Radar confirms that Super Typhoon Hagibis did not actually make landfall on Anatahan Island. The southern periphery of the island got scraped by the core, but the worst conditions of the inner boundary of the eyewall missed just offshore. Again, good example how satellite imagery can be deceiving as it looked like a direct hit in the posts above. Angle of sensor, parallax and lat/long postion of eye is important.

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5 hours ago, Windspeed said:
6 hours ago, etudiant said:
Don't think I've ever seen something like this before. Is it usual in cyclones?

 

Rare is a better term. I mentioned some others above: Pam, Patricia, Wilma, Gilbert and Allen all had similar structures. There have been a number of others that developed a super intense >5nm micro-vortex eyewall within a much larger banded concentric envelope. Still, it's not something we see with regards to such extreme sub 890 hpa estimated intensities on a yearly basis. Think perhaps once every 5-10 years globally within the satellite era.

Thank you, a very informative summary.

Has there been any explanation or modeling that would shed light on how this comes about?  Why and how would a micro vortex spin up within the eye? 

 

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Thank you, a very informative summary. Has there been any explanation or modeling that would shed light on how this comes about?  Why and how would a micro vortex spin up within the eye?

 

Well the micro-vortex is the tiny eye we observed with Hagibis. Really this phenomenon is no different than your average microcane or small hurricane eyewall in general, it just takes a very low shear environment + very high maximum potential intensity w/ high TCHP to get something like a Hagibis or Wilma; and even still, the aformentioned type of micro-vortex may still not occur. Otherwise, outer banding influences in the formative stages usually starves off or dissipates a smaller vortex before MPI can be achieved. Usually the intensification phase of the entire tropical cyclone's broader core cuts off or diverts outer low level convergence rather quickly away from a tiny interior vortex, if it happens to exist, while a larger eye or concentric band takes over. This is usually prior to the system even becoming a hurricane or typhoon. It's just a really chaotic and unpredictable process, at least until the main eyeband or core has consolidated, to know how large or small the dominate vort will be.

 

In short, there really isn't a way to model the chaotic nature of such a phenomenon. It is rather part luck on how small and aligned an MCS-induced mid-level vort is in conjunction to the low level vort underneath. If that can resolve and the MPI is sky high, a small vort can become dominant and remain that way through rapid intensification all the way into the sub-900s hPa. But it's really a crapshoot to know the probability of such occurring. Sometimes the original vort max is just larger and remains that way.

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On 9/8/2019 at 1:43 PM, 1900hurricane said:

Typhoon Faxai looks like it could be the rare typhoon to make landfall on Honshu as a fully tropical (not transitioning) system in the next 24 hours. Worse, it could hit the Tokyo Bay/Kanto Plain area head on.

 

 

avn_lalo-animated (16).gif

 

Trains were completely shuttered during the morning rush hour here in Tokyo due to this storm.  Very rare for this country.

 

Anyway, Hagibis is intriguing.  Hopefully it can keep it together enough that I can get a few hours off work again.  Haven't formally checked water temps, but it's probably a bathtub all the way to Honshu given how warm this August and September have been.

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20 hours ago, Windspeed said:

 

Well the micro-vortex is the tiny eye we observed with Hagibis. Really this phenomenon is no different than your average microcane or small hurricane eyewall in general, it just takes a very low shear environment + very high maximum potential intensity w/ high TCHP to get something like a Hagibis or Wilma; and even still, the aformentioned type of micro-vortex may still not occur. Otherwise, outer banding influences in the formative stages usually starves off or dissipates a smaller vortex before MPI can be achieved. Usually the intensification phase of the entire tropical cyclone's broader core cuts off or diverts outer low level convergence rather quickly away from a tiny interior vortex, if it happens to exist, while a larger eye or concentric band takes over. This is usually prior to the system even becoming a hurricane or typhoon. It's just a really chaotic and unpredictable process, at least until the main eyeband or core has consolidated, to know how large or small the dominate vort will be.

 

In short, there really isn't a way to model the chaotic nature of such a phenomenon. It is rather part luck on how small and aligned an MCS-induced mid-level vort is in conjunction to the low level vort underneath. If that can resolve and the MPI is sky high, a small vort can become dominant and remain that way through rapid intensification all the way into the sub-900s hPa. But it's really a crapshoot to know the probability of such occurring. Sometimes the original vort max is just larger and remains that way.

Thank you for this more complete explanation, although it is really over my head. For a novice such as me, TCHP and MPI are not familiar terms, so there are gaps in my understanding of the process. But I gather the hurricane formation is much more chaotically competitive than I'd thought, so that very small vortices sometimes play a pivotal role. Is that correct?

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Typhoon Bualoi is about to move over/near Anatahan island in the Mariana Islands.  This is the second strong typhoon to directly hit the tiny island this month.  That's difficult to do.

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Halong's development and structure very reminiscent of Mikael in the GOM last year. Probably SS Cat 5 right now. ADT up to 7.3 / 150 kts now. This beast is cranking...0ffde2c0c52fc6e45ff3ce40af148027.gif

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On 12/2/2019 at 5:46 AM, shaggy said:

Looks like Josh is gonna catch the northern eyewall and may the edge of the eye of Kamurri 

I most certainly did-- got right smack in the eye. Here's the action. It's one of my better nighttime videos. The hotel was on a generator, so there was some light to work with.

 

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On 12/14/2019 at 1:52 PM, HurricaneJosh said:

I most certainly did-- got right smack in the eye. Here's the action. It's one of my better nighttime videos. The hotel was on a generator, so there was some light to work with.

 

I am probably one of the few humans who doesnt have a Twitter account but I was watching on Twitter the entire time. Really thought it was gonna barely miss you south but a few hours before landfall it was clear you were gonna catch the eye. Great video as always.

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On 12/16/2019 at 6:23 PM, shaggy said:

I am probably one of the few humans who doesnt have a Twitter account but I was watching on Twitter the entire time. Really thought it was gonna barely miss you south but a few hours before landfall it was clear you were gonna catch the eye. Great video as always.

Thanks so much, shaggy. I'm glad you enjoyed it, and I hope you're doing well. Nice to reconnect with you like this.

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34 minutes ago, HurricaneJosh said:

Thanks so much, shaggy. I'm glad you enjoyed it, and I hope you're doing well. Nice to reconnect with you like this.

It is nice to see you pop up here again. I know I miss the old chase threads but understand the switch to Twitter. You can reach so many more people. I just need to sign up for Twitter so I can follow icyclone. Right now my wife follows you so I just use her account to follow your chases.

Hope you enjoyed the holiday season and that things are good!

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Hello everybody,

 

I had on question, Did anyone hear about Sudan low?

Is it really exist, and how it is affecting climate of Iraq and Iran in Winter and Spring season?

 

 

Thank you.

 

Sent from my PAR-LX1M using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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Cyclone Harold is rapidly intensifying and will likely make a direct landfall in Vanuatu as a powerful upper category cyclone in the coming days. Which island that will be still remains in question but there may be multiple landfalls based on the general forecast path.3965b65a5960d7ac03106f42c23e1c4f.gifd929d53b61912cde2b1785df059ba9fe.gif

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Extreme TC Harold has made landfall over the southern periphery of the island of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu. Fortunately this region is not as populated as the northeastern region of that large island. Whoever is there is likely getting rocked however. Nice presentation through landfall. The eyewall was strong even if old cloud debris from the ERC was still clearing out within the new eye. Will be interesting to see how much land interaction influences weakening. I suspect there will be some weakening as Harold continues ESE.0c0fc7ce3b9bbbd520691301bd1d21f6.gif&key=a43e80e60cb6388d55e6c7a343c81d41ca86bbcf96141b4ba51aa348fde8351e

 

 

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Incredible recovery by Extreme TC Harold from land interaction over Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu. This is a textbook study right here before our eyes. I've never seen anything like this previous.6ab61f980fa775bddd743be6b26c5f43.gif

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That's a monster impact for whoever was in Harold's eyewall. Sounds like limited population but the initial hit then recovery then even stronger hit on the second island will be devastating for whoever was in that storm's path.

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