SnoSki14 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 If she managed to stall a bit further north then it would be devastating. Really interesting evolution in the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The gust product is pretty impressive. 70-80 knots on the coast is crazy for the shore area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, Sportybx said: Hi guys . this is my first post but I've been coming to this forums for years getting info to the point where I tell people what's going to happen before it happens . They are mind blown thanks to you guys . Anyway I'm from the Bronx ,Throggs neck about 2 blocks from the sound . What am I looking at over here . with Sandy we had massive flooding in the streets from the sound at high tides . Is this something that could happen once again ? Hi Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The gust product is pretty impressive. Is that the strongest panel for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 The Euro is just a disaster for the NJ shore. If this happens verbatim.....there is going to be major problems for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Finally heading OTS mercifully late Thursday night. Although the regular Euro doesn't look impressive after Monday, the high res Euro still showing a core of near Hurricane force winds with the system as it exits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Like I said, mandatory evacuations at the NJ barrier islands. It shouldn't even be a question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Like I said, mandatory evacuations at the NJ barrier islands. It shouldn't even be a question. new moon too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Superstorm made a post in the made thread showing this going back to purely tropical off our coast. Water is warm off our coast but doubt it is warm enough to initiate tropical strengthening and if storm is stalled it will upwell under itself and cool the surface water. Think once it is stalled and captured this will be an extratropical or hybrid system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 WE HAVE A HURRICANE 000 WTNT64 KNHC 011854 TCUAT4 HURRICANE HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 155 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016 ...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A HURRICANE... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds in Hermine have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h). Based on these data, Hermine is now upgraded to a hurricane, the fourth hurricane of 2016 in the Atlantic basin. SUMMARY OF 155 PM CDT...1855 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 85.4W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan/Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Hopefully some of the heavier rain makes it into the area. A storm with a couple days of 20-30mph winds and light rains isn't overly impressive. The Jersey Shore though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 French model. Not sure how accurate this is but it's pretty ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: French model. Not sure how accurate this is but it's pretty ridiculous. Not as ridiculous as the EC. 46 mph gusts as opposed to 60-80 along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 On a side note, can we stop for a minute and laugh at how terribly the GFS has handled Hermine all along, including now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 It seems to be moving a bit faster than forecast, how would that affect the track down the line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Quick question. Based on the EC and GFS what are we looking at as a start time for things to get nasty in SNJ shore points. Looks like with onshore flow things go down hill quickly and by early afternoon on Sat it isn't going to be all that great of a day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 The new 84 hr RGEM deepens Hermine back to the 980's east of the Delmarva like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, SnoSki14 said: It seems to be moving a bit faster than forecast, how would that affect the track down the line? Agreed, wondering the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It seems to be moving a bit faster than forecast, how would that affect the track down the line? Both the GFS and Euro sped up the system by ~ 3 hours. The 12z suite had a great handle on the faster speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 GFS has now botched Joaquin and Hermine. The NAM and HRRR did better than the GFS with this system consistently, including at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, Morris said: GFS has now botched Joaquin and Hermine. The NAM and HRRR did better than the GFS with this system consistently, including at 12z today. Huh?? Its a short term 15hr meso model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Both the GFS and Euro sped up the system by ~ 3 hours. The 12z suite had a great handle on the faster speed. Yes, but how does that affect us is the question?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Yes, but how does that affect us is the question?? I thought I answered you. The 12z runs shifted back West. Therefore the faster speed led to the system getting further North before the system occluded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I thought I answered you. The 12z runs shifted back West. Therefore the faster speed led to the system getting further North before the system occluded. Ah gotcha... maybe you did. So basically we want to see a continued faster system in the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, allgame830 said: Ah gotcha... maybe you did. So basically we want to see a continued faster system in the next few runs. The further North it can get before the capture the better. Obviously you don't want it to get too far East or it will sit and spin offshore like most of the 00z runs were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 13 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Huh?? Its a short term 15hr meso model Pressure falls and intensity. The GFS couldn't see its nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 12z GFDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 EPS mean close to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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