MJO812 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 12z GEFS mean is in good agreement with the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: West of 0z It seems like the 12z runs always look great and get our hopes up. Then at 18z things start shifting back East again and by 00z it's full suicide mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Anybody have the 12z NAVGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 So you're calling for a swift kick ots then?No I just don't think it will be a hurricane up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, JC-CT said: No I just don't think it will be a hurricane up here. I don't think anyone expects it to be a hurricane up here. But I do expect some high end TS force winds from whatever is left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Anybody have the 12z NAVGEM? North of 0z Low stalls near Del Marva but rains get up here ( outer bands ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It seems like the 12z runs always look great and get our hopes up. Then at 18z things start shifting back East again and by 00z it's full suicide mode. from OKX write-up yesterday WHILE THE OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR HERMINE TO TRACK FARTHER WEST, THERE HAVE BEEN TYPICAL DIURNAL FLIP-FLOPS, WITH THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE TENDING TO BE FARTHER WEST THAN THE 00Z GUIDANCE, SO TOOK A BLENDED APPROACH USING BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, mikemost said: from OKX write-up yesterday WHILE THE OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR HERMINE TO TRACK FARTHER WEST, THERE HAVE BEEN TYPICAL DIURNAL FLIP-FLOPS, WITH THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE TENDING TO BE FARTHER WEST THAN THE 00Z GUIDANCE, SO TOOK A BLENDED APPROACH USING BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS. If it gets trapped by the ULL moving through the TN Valley it has no choice but to come back to the West. It's just a matter of how far West the rain makes it. Either way the impacts at the beaches are going to be moderate-severe. It really is an easy forecast from that standpoint. The only way we avoid that is if it moves East from VA Beach and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: No I just don't think it will be a hurricane up here. does it really matter? You have a storm sitting off NJ dumping tons of rain and sending east winds into the coast for 2 days...it's going to be ugly regardless for NJ/LI and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Max winds up to 70mph per latest 12 PM CDT advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 I'd say it's pretty much a lock now that the FL Hurricane drought will end early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Tightly clustered on the GFS Good agreement with the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 So, turns out we picked a "great" weekend for a rental about a block from the water on Rockaway Beach. Definition of "great" depends upon convincing wife that shift from 79/66 and sunny to storm-chasing is a fair trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, hooralph said: So, turns out we picked a "great" weekend for a rental about a block from the water on Rockaway Beach. Definition of "great" depends upon convincing wife that shift from 79/66 and sunny to storm-chasing is a fair trade. better hope there's no evacuations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 I'd say it's almost a lock that the NJ barrier islands are going to be on mandatory evacuation this weekend. Talk about terrible timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I'd say it's almost a lock that the NJ barrier islands are going to be on mandatory evacuation this weekend. Talk about terrible timing. yep. A great summer for business and visitors up until this point. They will have to start tomorrow or Saturday if current trends hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Steven's Institute warning of slight chance for Major Flooding at Sandy Hook in 72hrs. GFS does seem to dig storm right into the NYC Bight on Sunday PM as it weakens and begins to move away leaving, clouds/drizzle early Monday. http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/d/index.shtml?station=N021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'd say it's almost a lock that the NJ barrier islands are going to be on mandatory evacuation this weekend. Talk about terrible timing. That would be a nightmare and can only imagine political pressure being applied to make that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: better hope there's no evacuations That would actually be preferable to a washout - we'd likely be able to reschedule/get our money back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'd say it's almost a lock that the NJ barrier islands are going to be on mandatory evacuation this weekend. Talk about terrible timing. Doubtful, assuming the NHC track verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, Keith O said: That would be a nightmare and can only imagine political pressure being applied to make that call. Christie won't even think twice after what happened with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, RU848789 said: Doubtful, assuming the NHC track verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, RU848789 said: Doubtful, assuming the NHC track verifies. that track has flip flopped all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, Brian5671 said: that track has flip flopped all week. The track doesn't matter. Every single piece of reliable guidance has it stalled either off the Delmarva or SNJ for over a day with TS force winds battering the beaches. Major coastal flooding is almost imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The track doesn't matter. Every single piece of reliable guidance has it stalled either off the Delmarva or SNJ for over a day with TS force winds battering the beaches. Major coastal flooding is almost imminent. the rain shield doesnt even have to reach land for the big winds. Big blocking high to the north, if the pressure on this thing is 990 or something like that the winds are going to be crazy. Heard elsewhere, but there's also a good jetstreak to enhance the storm along with the bathwater off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: the rain shield doesnt even have to reach land for the big winds. Big blocking high to the north, if the pressure on this thing is 990 or something like that the winds are going to be crazy. Heard elsewhere, but there's also a good jetstreak to enhance the storm along with the bathwater off the coast. I think with Sandy I had under an inch of rain total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'd say it's almost a lock that the NJ barrier islands are going to be on mandatory evacuation this weekend. Talk about terrible timing. It won't be mandatory, but voluntary. I'm in Seaside, Mayor said they'd apply it in such a way that you'd need to prove you're a resident. Which is basically the same thing as mandatory at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 11 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Steven's Institute warning of slight chance for Major Flooding at Sandy Hook in 72hrs. GFS does seem to dig storm right into the NYC Bight on Sunday PM as it weakens and begins to move away leaving, clouds/drizzle early Monday. http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/d/index.shtml?station=N021 Monday isn't going to be a nice day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: I think with Sandy I had under an inch of rain total. .20 here. Winds put 99% of the town without power though-some people for over a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, pstar3182 said: It won't be mandatory, but voluntary. I'm in Seaside, Mayor said they'd apply it in such a way that you'd need to prove you're a resident. Which is basically the same thing as mandatory at this point. They did mandatory evacuations with Irene and it wasn't hardly the wind threat that this is because the system ran inland from NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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