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Potential Hermine Impacts


Zelocita Weather

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Interesting storm surge statement from NHC

3. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding
Graphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical
cyclone.  The wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by
the P-surge model and as a result, recent Flooding Graphics have
understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas northward.  NHC
will be discontinuing runs of the P-surge model for Hermine with
this advisory.  The NWS is attempting to substitute the GFS ensemble
system for P-surge for the next issuance of the Potential Storm
Surge Flooding Graphic, to provide a more realistic depiction of the
threat.  If this effort is unsuccessful, issuance of the Potential
Storm Surge Flooding Graphic for Hermine will also be discontinued.

4. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic does account for
the current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately
identifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge.
This graphic will continue to be produced for Hermine.
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Irene was 4-5 feet above normal at high tide.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Carolina coast...1 to 3 feet
Hampton Roads area...3 to 5 feet
Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ...3 to 5 feet
Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet
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8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If there's no precip I wonder if they could just go with wind advisories/HWW

It's certainly possible they issue TS warnings since all you need are TS force winds from a tropical storm. But I could see them leaving that up to the local offices to determine if HWW/advisories would be used instead. I'm sure there are calls being made between them.

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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If there's no precip I wonder if they could just go with wind advisories/HWW

they definitely could go that route. but given what happened with Sandy, and the fact that the NHC said they were given clearance by  NWS-Eastern Region to continue with their advisories while the system continues to threaten the US in previous discussions, that route won't be happening, imho.

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1 minute ago, Jim Marusak said:

they definitely could go that route. but given what happened with Sandy, and the fact that the NHC said they were given clearance by  NWS-Eastern Region to continue with their advisories while the system continues to threaten the US in previous discussions, that route won't be happening, imho.

I recall once getting an inland tropical wind warning or something to that effect but we also had heavy rain

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Just now, Snow88 said:

I don't think the rain will be an issue with this storm unless every model shifts northwest throughout the day

 

We do need the rain, but here IMBY (Staten Island), i'm really concerned about power outages.  It's still summer and all of the trees have leaves.........really concerned that we could have outages that rival Sandy if the wind field expands and it sits and spins.

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2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It's starting to look as if it'll be so far south that we get almost no rain up here. 

Looks like the offshore downslope flow and subsidence will really dry and heat us up when this pulls away later in the week.

Drought conditions may get worse beyond the northern fringe of the rain shield.

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