Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: I hope that is the neighborhood we find ourselves in around day 8. You have to be close to the rain to get the best snows..... Absolutely! With the storm last year 2 countries south of me had rain for 85 percent of the storm and very little accumulation. We had 3 days of snow with totals from 14 to 18 inches. That close to rain but big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 37 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: 37 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: I see several people cliff diving in other forums, but the EPS (I refuse to look much beyond day 10) keeps the -EPO and the -NAO in the long range (through day 10) with a bowl shaped trough in much of the US. Sure, there is a SE ridge, but without that feature everyone would likely go cold and dry (which is possible). Basically all options are on the table between something that goes just north and gives the mid-south rain, a winter event, and cold and dry. We always have to walk a tight rope in the south so it's not really worth getting worked up over. In a nutshell, I don't see much of a reason to be discouraged this morning. We are entering our "prime" part of winter and there is cold coming per the forecast maps. Better than a mega death heat ridge with no end in sight, right? Excellent summary! This is as much as we could possibly hope for at this point. All options are indeed on the table as we move towards prime winter weather climo time for our part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 It may just be me, but the GFS sending the storm towards blocking in Eastern Canada doesn't make much sense to me. It's a strong 500mb block there and the storm runs directly into it in a due N/NE direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 24 minutes ago, John1122 said: It may just be me, but the GFS sending the storm towards blocking in Eastern Canada doesn't make much sense to me. It's a strong 500mb block there and the storm runs directly into it in a due N/NE direction. I agree the GFS looks to be out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Headed to a luncheon, but the entire Mid-South will like the 12z GFS. Keys on the latter shortwave more, just beyond day 10, but is a long duration snow event. Snow maps should be fun. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 It's way out there, but basically 4-8 inches from Memphis/N Miss to NW Bama/Nash to SEKY/Knox to SWVA/Tri. 2-3 in NW TN, Chattanooga with 12+ in the mountains. Continues across North Carolina/Upstate SC with nice totals. Too far out to take verbatim but shows the potential of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 That moment you realize today is Wednesday and NOT Tuesday. SMH. The 12z GFS actually keys on the second piece of energy and not the first (what the Euro keyed on). If you loop it, you can see the GFS trying with that first piece, but doesn't create any overrunning. It won't surprise me if the first one (day 8ish) isn't something to keep an eye on. Just a hunch. Either way, it's nice to see pretty snow maps again. GFS loses the cold, enhances the western trough and SE ridge in the long range with absolutely no help from the Atlantic after this big snow, but if it happened that way not sure anyone would care if a big snowstorm happens just before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 Saw a different map posted with a different algorithm I guess in the SE thread with much heavier totals for Memphis/N. Miss/Chattanooga. Generally 10+ in SW Tn, 7+ over most of the rest of the state except extreme NW. edit: Map above is what I'm referring too. Instant weather's map shows the totals I put out in my first post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 We know this event is probably going to be coming and going, same with the Euro event that had almost as impressive a snow map but a couple days sooner. Yet when models show a snow streak like this from say, Nebraska to Minnesota you can take it to the bank from a week out most of the time. Not sure why southern systems are so much tougher for models to handle than cutters/midwest systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I think there will be a pretty good signal for a frontrunner and follower type setup on the GEFS. I bet several individual members key on the same period the Euro keyed on at 0z. Will know shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 In qpf's MEM 1.02 BNA .82 TYS 1.14 Warm nose in CHA,2'm far left,850's follow SUN 00Z 08-JAN -2.8 -2.1 1032 45 82 0.00 567 542 SUN 12Z 08-JAN 0.2 1.5 1029 99 98 0.56 568 546 MON 00Z 09-JAN -0.2 -1.1 1023 99 97 0.74 563 545 MON 12Z 09-JAN -3.7 -5.1 1027 97 44 0.16 554 533 TRI .80 I don't believe it but nice to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 I think the cold shot that sticks around for 4-7 days is almost locked in at this point. After that the pattern that unfolds is favorable to us getting a wintry event but as we know, that's a fickle thing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 IF the cold comes in as powerful as it appears it could the snow would be the light fluffy stuff that piles up much deeper than the heavy wet snow...it would also blow around far more and create drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 The GFES gives our region some pretty good shots at snow too. The OP was literally the perfect set up but there are obviously a number of good ones on here too with another decent 2-4 inch mean for most of us with all of our forum having at least 1-2 inches of snow on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 The GFES gives our region some pretty good shots at snow too. The OP was literally the perfect set up but there are obviously a number of good ones on here too with another decent 2-4 inch mean for most of us with all of our forum having at least 1-2 inches of snow on the mean. That's not bad at all for this far out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Can we fast forward to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Haven't seen the individuals, but the 24 hr accumulated precip panels seem to be pointing to two separate events (I suppose without seeing individuals it could just be timing differences) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 The 12z GFS does lose the pattern late. However, the 12z GEFS has a form of a double block to some extent. AN heights over Greenland and heights over AK displaced slightly within a global context. Seems to place BN heights in the West no matter what. Maybe a feedback error? Really looked like a -NAO persists. Now, the GFS operational has some business going on with the PV late in its run. The PV looks elongated. Is it split at d12? I am not an expert but it appears there are two lobes? (Edit) To my untrained eye, the anomalies at 10, 30, and 50 don't look like a tightly wound PV. Jeff predicted that if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Taking a look at the ensembles, the 500mb height anomalies look like the following on the US and Canadian modeling at hour 216. I will edit to include the EPS once available. The ridging in the NAO domain holds on the GEFS and EPS (although EPS looks to be moving out) through 240, but not so much holding on the GEPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Taking a look at the ensembles, the 500mb height anomalies look like the following on the US and Canadian modeling at hour 192. I will edit to include the EPS once available. The ridging in the NAO domain holds on the GEFS through 240, but not so much on the GEPs. Hey, man. What is your take on the evolution of the configuration of the stratosphere late in the GFS run? You know more about that than I do. Looks like some changes there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Great info & discussions in here! This topic is HOT right now. Hopefully this topic continues to stay that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 47 minutes ago, BillT said: IF the cold comes in as powerful as it appears it could the snow would be the light fluffy stuff that piles up much deeper than the heavy wet snow...it would also blow around far more and create drifts. The temps in troposphere warm up above freezing,this would be wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: The temps in troposphere warm up above freezing,this would be wet snow dont we LIVE in the troposphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: The temps in troposphere warm up above freezing,this would be wet snow The temperature is in the 20s from 700 to the surface, it'd be dry snow imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, BillT said: dont we LIVE in the troposphere? yes and the troposphere goes up also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euro coming in snowy with the first wave again. Plenty of cold with overrunning underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Snow is breaking out on the 12z euro at 192 just to our west (Oklahoma and Arkansas) and enveloping most of the state by 210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, John1122 said: Euro coming in snowy with the first wave again. Plenty of cold with overrunning underway. ty for your comments......not sure why some folks challenge every comment i make....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Snowing from the panhandle of TX and eastern NM all the way into the central NC area by 222. Long duration event as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Wintry precip field getting down into Louisiana, the northern half of Mississippi and the northwest corner of Alabama at 228. Still snowing in all of TN at 228. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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