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John1122 posted a topic in Tennessee ValleyAll the others have their threads, so we're late to the game. Will this be a Nina winter as advertised, and if so, what intensity? If we can achieve weak Nina, it can mean good times ahead for the Valley region. Some of our most epic winters have came during that pattern, including the legendary 1984-85 winter that crushed the entire Mid-South/Tennessee Valley with heavy snows and record shattering cold. As always, many factors go into making a winter though, as we saw in 2011-2012 when the weak Nina mattered not at all and the winter was hardly a winter at all. Looking at some of the analog years, even including the bad winters, almost all areas West of the Apps are below normal in the temps department during weak Nina years. Strong Ninas flip the script however and we are often very warm during intense Nina years. I will take a further look at some of the analogs and at real data across the Valley during these years later on.
For the Tuesday update I would lift the slight into West Kentucky and get the ENH into northern Mississippi - perhaps Memphis. Warm front WF will probably get into West Tenn. Might make it to West Ky. Severe parameters including a screaming low level jet will augment the squall line from the WF south. Upper winds may be less backed than forecast if a lead wave can eject ahead of the bowling ball. A couple leading edge tornadoes would not surprise me. Unfortunately it may be after dark east of the Mississippi River. I'm expecting several to numerous damaging straight line reports, esp if some line echo wave patterns LEWPs can establish. Looks like a set-up favorable to LEWPs esp after dark. Good news farther east is relatively more stable air should keep Alabama, Mid and East Tennessee safe.
With multiple model runs of potential snow coming Sunday evening into Monday for the region, I figured I'd go ahead and start a thread. We have several potential storms to track in this period and these threads will help keep them centralized and separate. The last 24-36 hours of model runs have been showing a good potential for a snow event in Tennessee or Southern Kentucky. A frontal boundry will pass the area bringing rain and behind it, colder air will filter into the region. This cold front will stall out somewhere to our South and East. A wave of Low Pressure will form and ride along the front. As of now the track looks to go from Southern Alabama into Central or North Georgia. According to how far the front sags is how far south air cold enough for frozen precip will make it. The GFS this morning puts it very close to the KY/TN border, while the NAM is slightly further south. The rain snow line will waffle around for the next several days. On the change over line there is a high potential for both sleet and freezing rain to occur. The HPC updated their day 3 graphic to this. The 06z NAM snowfall map shows the extreme potential of the event for someone, The HPC official stance as of now is for Kentucky to be in the better area for snow, but for Ice in this area.
This is getting close, as soon as tomorrow night in the Western areas. WFO are getting more bullish for the event. The GFS has been showing something very similar to this for several runs in a row now. This was the 0z run that came out a few hours ago. MRX has made a rare, bold call from their office. Most other AFO's are putting 50% or better chances for snow in their forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday night as a powerful coldfront crashes through the states. It appears that there is the potential for at least a ground covering event over the areas shown above on the GFS snowfall map. Temps will fall into the 10s and 20s Thursday night and likely won't recover above freezing in many areas on Friday, with some not making it out of the mid to upper 20s. The potential is higher and for higher accumulations if you live in an upslope prone area in SE KY, SW VA or East Tennessee. Let's hope this is the one that covers up some grass blades and hopefully is the start of a few days or weeks to remember for a long time to come.