July pattern discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, Michael05192016 said:

Tippy, it is time to give up on any big heat coming here. This model suite seals the deal. All of the derecho events from this will even miss NYC to the south. This is not even comparable 1995 for New England for any derecho risk. This is a Midwest event. New England is shut out. 

 

why are you taking that tone with me? 

i've been the biggest proponent of holding back on big heat -   ... dude, can you knock off the poorly veiled bating tactic.  it's annoying.

[shrewsbury91]

Call me crazy, but I love a 90F/65F day in the heart of summer... better then dealing with sub freezing temperatures in winter.

[eekuasepinniW]

5 hours ago, shrewsbury91 said:

Call me crazy, but I love a 90F/65F day in the heart of summer... better then dealing with sub freezing temperatures in winter.

We'll call you "normal" since what's liked on this board is near universally not what the other 99.8% of the population wants.

[dendrite]

HRRR and MET are running mid-upper 90s for the typical hot spots today. Only expecting 70s out here in MI.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

HRRR and MET are running mid-upper 90s for the typical hot spots today. Only expecting 70s out here in MI.

where in MI are you ?

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

where in MI are you ?

Davison/Flint

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Davison/Flint

Don't drink the water ... ahter ahter ahter !

 

j/k ...   I grew up in K-zoo in SW MI 'till I was 14 ...then have been subjected to New England's heat-cheat summers and over predicted Nor'eaasters ever sense...   

[weathafella]

We had mid level clouds but such a high launching pad today should get is into the mid 90s now that it's cleared.

[weathafella]

BOS now up to 90 at 11am obs.  Mid to upper 90s are reachable.  Hottest day of the year appropriately exact mid point of July?

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

We'll call you "normal" since what's liked on this board is near universally not what the other 99.8% of the population wants.

link

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, weathafella said:

BOS now up to 90 at 11am obs.  Mid to upper 90s are reachable.  Hottest day of the year appropriately exact mid point of July?

not that anyone asked ... but, having missed "90 by 9", and also "10 after 10" ... 100 should fall short. 

[dendrite]

I don't think 100F was ever in the cards, but 96-97F is fair game. We dealt with a lot of mid morning mid-level clouds in July 95 up in S NH, but we still soared into the low 100s once fully clearing after 10a. There's still plenty of strong insolation to go. With that said, it looks like the HRRR/MET will bust as usual on being a bit too warm. The MAV has been running a few degF cooler and the 12z MET appears to have fallen in line with it. Maybe similar temps to that May hot day?

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

I don't think 100F was ever in the cards, but 96-97F is fair game. We dealt with a lot of mid morning mid-level clouds in July 95 up in S NH, but we still soared into the low 100s once fully clearing after 10a. There's still plenty of strong insolation to go. With that said, it looks like the HRRR/MET will bust as usual on being a bit too warm. The MAV has been running a few degF cooler and the 12z MET appears to have fallen in line with it. Maybe similar temps to that May hot day?

'general rules of thumb' are just that: in general... they won't work for every case.

 

If it is the day I'm thinking of, I remember that day in July, 1995 and (fwiw).  We did not get to 100 at my location of Middlesex Co in massachusetts that day.  96 was our high - that was a break of Midwest heat day... They were getting the true history pavement melter heat wave out there and like 12 hours worth tried to get in here.   Had a drecho, too

 

Otherwise, that summer was eroded heat back to the SW most of the time.  Like this one... interestingly enough.. but that's not claiming any analogs, either.  

[weathafella]

96 at 4.  Will it end up as the hottest day of 2016?  If so it's a 105 degree spread from official hottest to coldest unless December beats the -9 of 2/14/16

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

96 at 4.  Will it end up as the hottest day of 2016?  If so it's a 105 degree spread from official hottest to coldest unless December beats the -9 of 2/14/16

yeah that's an interesting stat, Jerry -   curious how the next three weeks work out... figure after that, we start losing to seasonal migration.  

[Typhoon Tip]

going to be horrible color season - eh?

[wxeyeNH]

Just looking at Weather Underground at 440pm.  Shows KBOS at 97F.   Wonder if that's accurate.  Weakening outflow boundary from the thunderstorms that past south of Boston is showing up on radar passing through the city now.

[dendrite]

5 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just looking at Weather Underground at 440pm.  Shows KBOS at 97F.   Wonder if that's accurate.  Weakening outflow boundary from the thunderstorms that past south of Boston is showing up on radar passing through the city now.

96F

the 5-min ASOS obs are in whole degrees C so there are some rounding issues when converting to F. I'm happy to have the more frequent obs, but they really need to include the temp/dew in the remarks section to get the tenths.

[CoastalWx]

Pretty warm pattern for the next week or so. Wer cool down later Wed-Fri before a potential very hot couple of days at some point next weekend.

[Damage In Tolland]

Man that's one hell of a hot Euro run wire to wire after one milder day this coming Wednesday

[Typhoon Tip]

for shear boredom i'll waste a few moments discussing details on a any model for D7.  

it's hard to get epic heat on a SW flow here in SNE (climate).  there's a couple reasons for that.  when there is a SW flow, synoptically that typically means some sort of frontal boundary is approaching - the pressure gradient aligns around the fronts. duh.  but that inherently means there are instability numbers and tendencies for cloud coverage, then.  sure enough, we see a fast moving wave in the flow passing the upper Lakes and ready to careen through central New England on Saturday, and that more than anything else is probably a whopper convective look for us.   to mention, that also likely means there is a theta-e channel in place, which only adds to the chances for intervals of heat dimming clouds - probably more of a steam bath day than uber high heat.  

for all these reasons, there is valid argument that the hot day may actually Friday ... not so much Saturday.  Friday has more of an open sky, cloud-suppressing ridge, west wind appeal, and there is even strong suggestion of a App. lee-side heat trough extending down coastal plain (actually true on both Fri/Sat).  if we maximize using 850 mb starting temperature as an extended range general rule of thumb, the profiles give 100+ at DCA and Philly, to 97 for Boston on Friday.  if the "more typical" preponderance of cloud a high DPs (climate) tainted on Saturday, it'd by a 92/76 horror drip, with thunder audible from haze obscured cloud towers type of day.  

to be fair ... 'if' the unusual transpired and cloud and super high DPs did not result on Saturday, sure... pushing 22 C at 850 mb would soar the 2-meters to 102 or 103 at typical hottest resulters.  i just don't see that happening given the other aspects going on.

Buuut.. it's important not to discuss details this far out - haha.  

i'll also add, if that 192 hour trough dip/interruption were not there, that heat would likely be extended in duration.  

something a bit more abstract though.  heat signals in the D7 to 10 range have accomplished failure this summer, to move into the middle range ... with astonishing panache.  sure, the details of that heat signal would be apt to change even in the best performing model times, but the former seems like an agenda to do so!  to the point where it's no huge leap to consider whether any heat of that ilk is even present in the runs later on. 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Can you explain how to identify a heat trough on the models?

 

they (thermal troughs) typically happen in the desert SW, the lee side of the Rockies in big heat, and at times the length east of the spine of the Appalachians.  

the gist is, intense heat in those regions (or any really) causes rising motion, which prior to the lower level air density/friction resisting timely restoring of mass causes atmospheric pressure to reduce near the surface.  if intense enough, it can even cause the standard interval presssure contouring to close off a low, but it is more typical that a trough that mimics a front takes place, even though there isn't really one there.  

I'm sure someone can find a better graphic but here's a crude annotation next Friday on the Euro its self as an example:

 

thus, when present that's an indication of buoyancy abundance ... which is occurring because there is a very hot air mass in place. 

[weathafella]

Last nights euro and today's gfs maintain pretty good heat potential next weekend with the euro having the 582 thickness line tickle the region and gfs has us all inside of the 576 contour.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Last nights euro and today's gfs maintain pretty good heat potential next weekend with the euro having the 582 thickness line tickle the region and gfs has us all inside of the 576 contour.

mmm. i dunno there - 

i'm seeing pretty clear, if perhaps on the subtle side, features that are dimming that 00z look .. repeating the mute game yet again.

we'll see how it plays out but i'm almost expecting this next 'heat signal' to do what the majority have this summer, and that's become less or evaporate altogether in just a couple cycles.   granted it's hot yesterday and very warm today ...but interestingly, this heat emerged in short term model outlooks and wasn't really IN a D9 appeal.  weird.

[Damage In Tolland]

This is turning into exactly the month many of us surmised. The heat and dews have overtaken the pattern. Recall when this weekend was supposed to be dry and COC k. Instead it turned into an HHH weekend . Watch as Wednesday this week trends warmer

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is turning into exactly the month many of us surmised. The heat and dews have overtaken the pattern. Recall when this weekend was supposed to be dry and COC k. Instead it turned into an HHH weekend . Watch as Wednesday this week trends warmer

 

Looks like ORH and BOS are both -0.1 on the month, but could see that ending up in the +1 to +2 range if the dews keep coming up along with stretches of heat.

Up here we've got MVL with -0.6 but I bet that ends up above normal too.  It is worth noting though that the first half of July was below normal in the means.  Bet the second half though goes the other way, above normal in the means.

Interestingly, while the stations east of the Spine and the radiators are below normal...BTV is currently +2.1.  That's fairly incredible to me.  We have two stations here (MVL and BTV) that are like 25 miles apart as the crow flies (neighboring counties), and one is -0.6 and the other is +2.1.  BTV just does not radiate at all anymore...they've had a couple minimums above 70F in the past week.  Seems to be impacting their departures quite a bit again this summer like the past few summers, as we've talked about in the past.  BTV is definitely the torch spot relative to normal in the warm season.  They don't seem to stand out as much in the winter when the prevailing flow has a more northerly orientation when the summer is more southerly.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

 

Looks like ORH and BOS are both -0.1 on the month, but could see that ending up in the +1 to +2 range if the dews keep coming up along with stretches of heat.

Up here we've got MVL with -0.6 but I bet that ends up above normal too.  It is worth noting though that the first half of July was below normal in the means.  Bet the second half though goes the other way, above normal in the means.

Interestingly, while the stations east of the Spine and the radiators are below normal...BTV is currently +2.1.  That's fairly incredible to me.  We have two stations here (MVL and BTV) that are like 25 miles apart as the crow flies (neighboring counties), and one is -0.6 and the other is +2.1.  BTV just does not radiate at all anymore...they've had a couple minimums above 70F in the past week.  Seems to be impacting their departures quite a bit again this summer like the past few summers, as we've talked about in the past.  BTV is definitely the torch spot relative to normal in the warm season.  They don't seem to stand out as much in the winter when the prevailing flow has a more northerly orientation when the summer is more southerly.

I know you mean well and I'm not carping on it ...but, this was the first sentence I saw on this social media this morning, after having ingested the operational Euro, GGEM, and that "GONAPS" frankenstein models from the 00z cycle.   I was forced to grin.  

I haven't seen the GFS yet, but ... if the repeating theme of the summer is any indicator, NCEP's covert correction schemes to annoyingly cheese-grade the tops of ridges down would have to have had that less ... (sarcasm intended).  

Seriously, despite all Kevin vs the world consternation and wits to abase the other side .. THAT WAS A TRULY HOT RUN.  Historic in some cases, no doubt!  The Euro in particular (and this is not to convey certitude at all - just sayn') was like, 90, 94, 101, 102, 96, 94 for Days 5 thru 10 for Boston.  So this immediate Thursday through the weekend into early next week...woof.   Those estimated highs from the Euro were just using 850 mb temperatures and then skimming down a blank skew-T chart ...adding the perfunctory 2-3 C for the 2-meter logorithmic slope of course... 

That NOGAPs model brings 26 to 28 C at 850 mb from eastern IA through southern Lower Mi by D10, and the only thing stopping that from pouring into the rest of the OV/NE regions is that it uses the Perennial North American Pattern vestige (that all models do..) to shun - otherwise it's 18 to 24's occasionally through the same times. GGEM even overcame it's typical abusive masturbation of said Perennial NAP to bring 20+ for two days, too - a remarkable achievement for that Glenn Quagmirian model.  

I did sneak a peek at the GFS Ensemble mean numbers for KFIT just for morbid curiosity and it was a bit easier than the Euro, with 91, 98, 98, 93, 91 for those days. ...but that's 6-0 dozen between the two if one or the other's DPs are higher. 

Anyway, ...may very well be all for muse as the tenor of the summer really puts the onus on the models to hold onto one of these damn heat signals at < than 4 days. I've seen big heat (though admittedly ...not this extreme as last night's operational mean) on more than couple of occasions in this D5/6 thru 10 range.  Three cycles ago ... the run looked pretty torchy, too.  Then, the 12z yesterday nuanced the features to give the complexion 'not quite' the same impressionability.  The jaded user goes, 'up - here we go again ... idiosyncratic emergence of petty noise to erode...'   I will admit that it is interesting to see it come roaring back, that 'impressionability' - and then some! - as this last cycle at 00z.

We've been in an off-set climate mode that has spanned some 2 or even three years worth of months.  NASA keeps churning out numbers that prove that, relative to season, every month in that time span has been not only warmer than the previous (again, RELATIVE to season) but, the warmest in history - two very alarming facets for GW concerned, as well as mouth-pussing chagrin to the idiocrasy that either thinks it doesn't exist, or are unethically denying...  (eh hm).  Anyway, the 'off-set'?  We, here, over eastern Canada and down into the NE CONUS have shared responsibility for being one of the only cool (RELATIVE to all) regions during that longer duration.  It keeps happening... they put out graphical presentations and we get the neutral-blues.  

I dunno ... in the same time frame we'e witness killer heat afar in multiple regions of the globe.  France...India, Australia (I think..) other parts of Eurasia... I cannot help but wonder, if not anticipate if the base-line PNAP pattern finally can no longer protect us and people have NO idea how bad it can get ...eegh.   

[WEATHERBUFF]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know you mean well and I'm not carping on it ...but, this was the first sentence I saw on this social media this morning, after having ingested the operational Euro, GGEM, and that "GONAPS" frankenstein models from the 00z cycle.   I was forced to grin.  

I haven't seen the GFS yet, but ... if the repeating theme of the summer is any indicator, NCEP's covert correction schemes to annoyingly cheese-grade the tops of ridges down would have to have had that less ... (sarcasm intended).  

Seriously, despite all Kevin vs the world consternation and wits to abase the other side .. THAT WAS A TRULY HOT RUN.  Historic in some cases, no doubt!  The Euro in particular (and this is not to convey certitude at all - just sayn') was like, 90, 94, 101, 102, 96, 94 for Days 5 thru 10 for Boston.  So this immediate Thursday through the weekend into early next week...woof.   Those estimated highs from the Euro were just using 850 mb temperatures and then skimming down a blank skew-T chart ...adding the perfunctory 2-3 C for the 2-meter logorithmic slope of course... 

That NOGAPs model brings 26 to 28 C at 850 mb from eastern IA through southern Lower Mi by D10, and the only thing stopping that from pouring into the rest of the OV/NE regions is that it uses the Perennial North American Pattern vestige (that all models do..) to shun - otherwise it's 18 to 24's occasionally through the same times. GGEM even overcame it's typical abusive masturbation of said Perennial NAP to bring 20+ for two days, too - a remarkable achievement for that Glenn Quagmirian model.  

I did sneak a peek at the GFS Ensemble mean numbers for KFIT just for morbid curiosity and it was a bit easier than the Euro, with 91, 98, 98, 93, 91 for those days. ...but that's 6-0 dozen between the two if one or the other's DPs are higher. 

Anyway, ...may very well be all for muse as the tenor of the summer really puts the onus on the models to hold onto one of these damn heat signals at < than 4 days. I've seen big heat (though admittedly ...not this extreme as last night's operational mean) on more than couple of occasions in this D5/6 thru 10 range.  Three cycles ago ... the run looked pretty torchy, too.  Then, the 12z yesterday nuanced the features to give the complexion 'not quite' the same impressionability.  The jaded user goes, 'up - here we go again ... idiosyncratic emergence of petty noise to erode...'   I will admit that it is interesting to see it come roaring back, that 'impressionability' - and then some! - as this last cycle at 00z.

We've been in an off-set climate mode that has spanned some 2 or even three years worth of months.  NASA keeps churning out numbers that prove that, relative to season, every month in that time span has been not only warmer than the previous (again, RELATIVE to season) but, the warmest in history - two very alarming facets for GW concerned, as well as mouth-pussing chagrin to the idiocrasy that either thinks it doesn't exist, or are unethically denying...  (eh hm).  Anyway, the 'off-set'?  We, here, over eastern Canada and down into the NE CONUS have shared responsibility for being one of the only cool (RELATIVE to all) regions during that longer duration.  It keeps happening... they put out graphical presentations and we get the neutral-blues.  

I dunno ... in the same time frame we'e witness killer heat afar in multiple regions of the globe.  France...India, Australia (I think..) other parts of Eurasia... I cannot help but wonder, if not anticipate if the base-line PNAP pattern finally can no longer protect us and people have NO idea how bad it can get ...eegh.   

No one has put forth a sensible solution to solve gw. so maybe we just have to adjust especially since India and China won't cooperate.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

No one has put forth a sensible solution to solve gw. so maybe we just have to adjust especially since India and China won't cooperate.

please - the "sensibility" has nothing to do with the solution.  Logically, there are technologies available that would curtail much of the detrimental affects of Human presence.  that's the sensible solution - the problem isn't "sensible" - it's motivation.     

[CapturedNature]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

please - the "sensibility" has nothing to do with the solution.  Logically, there are technologies available that would curtail much of the detrimental affects of Human presence.  that's the sensible solution - the problem isn't "sensible" - it's motivation.     

Talk about motivation, it's all political with both sides trying to gain something.  That's why nothing sensible will be done.

One thing we could do is to stop land reclamation.  If you add up all the land reclamation projects in the world it contributes to at least 6" of sea level rise if not more.  Shorelines used to be fluid and moved all the time but then we started putting up fixed barriers and even adding land mass.  As human development spread we've made more and more of the coastline fixed and added more land.

Then there's things like beach visitation which contributes to sand removal which starts the whole process over again.  Huge portions of our beaches are literally driven away by vistors every year.  We wind up spending billions replenishing beaches which contributes to the problem.  Everyone focuses on melting ice as the problem but ignores other contributors.

There's a whole host of contributors but we seem to only focus on certain ones and I don't think that's a motivational issue but a political one.  We shouldn't do something because someone gains from it but because it makes sense.