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Chicago Storm

April 24-30th Severe Potential

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Minus the veer-back signature

it's relatively subtle though. Wouldn't put too much into it.

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Minus the veer-back signature

That is high enough up that it can easily be overcome. The alarming thing is see is the 0-1SRH.

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Near El Reno and Mustang.

Sheesh...Yeah I'm looking at it now, pretty ridiculous.  4km isn't nearly as aggressive...not sure if that's a good or a bad thing considering my personal experience with the 4k is that it doesn't perform quite as well as the 12k :\

 

GFS isn't nearly as impressive.

 

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Sheesh...Yeah I'm looking at it now, pretty ridiculous.  4km isn't nearly as aggressive...not sure if that's a good or a bad thing considering my personal experience with the 4k is that it doesn't perform quite as well as the 12k :\

 

GFS isn't nearly as impressive.

 

 

 

It'll definitely be interesting to see if the 12z comes back down to Earth, the NAM has been pretty consistent with STPs over OK the last day or so although VBV was quite a bit worse yesterday. 

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looks like some heating wlll occur in the red river valley...

 

set up looks pretty good IMO

 

it may start a little earlier but atmosphere is already very unstable over TX 

 

might be a couple rounds

 

east side warm front is being held up by outflow from AR storms so there may be a triangle warm sector wedge moving onto S OK

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Both the latest runs of the HRRR and the 12Z 4-km NAM indicate at least one supercell traveling up the I-44 corridor just barely reaching the metro by 00Z tonight, fwiw (probably not much, given the agreement between CAMs up until this point  :lol: ). Still a more solid UH signal in the CAMs than we ever saw with Tuesday's event, though. 

 

12Z 4-km NAM:

uh25_max.us_state_ok.png

 

Last three HRRR runs:

uh25_max.us_state_ok.png

uh25_max.us_state_ok.png

uh25_max.us_state_ok.png

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The signal certainly is strong enough to where I'd choose Lawton or thereabouts as a target today if I were out and about. Unfortunately, I used my one chance this week already on Tuesday. :P

Yeah Lawton is a good spot or Frederick. Usually when the HRRR clues in on something like this without wavering, it is worth paying attention. Not to mention the overnight convection that everyone was worried about was next to nil.

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Latest satellite showing some clearing starting to work into far southern Oklahoma, lifting slowly north. Looks to be associated with the warm front with southerly winds to the south of the line of clearing and east winds to the north. Will be interesting to see how far north it gets over the next few hours.

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FWD has increased the tornado threat for the Metroplex this afternoon.

 

Sun is now starting to break through and further sunshine is expected as the stratus deck is mixing out.

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Yeah Lawton is a good spot or Frederick. Usually when the HRRR clues in on something like this without wavering, it is worth paying attention. Not to mention the overnight convection that everyone was worried about was next to nil.

Absolutely. Though as a rule, never start in Frederick haha. There are like zero roads out of that place. Snyder is a good waiting point

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Absolutely. Though as a rule, never start in Frederick haha. There are like zero roads out of that place. Snyder is a good waiting point

 

I learned that one the hard way on Tuesday. I'm pretty sure one of the backroads I tried to take to go around Fredrick proper was the worst road in all of Oklahoma.

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no upgrade for red river but  they did extend enhanced down I-35

 

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1130 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016  
 
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z  

 
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  
TONIGHT FOR SW AR...S CENTRAL AND SE OK...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND N  
TX INTO NE TX...  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CENTRAL TX NWD TO  
WRN/NRN OK AND EWD TO THE ARKLAMISS...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK  
AREA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  
   
..SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT
 
 
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT ENEWD  
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE I-35  
CORRIDOR IN OK/KS LATE TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL  
DEVELOP ENEWD FROM NW TX TO SW OK THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE  
NEWD INTO KS OVERNIGHT. FARTHER E...A BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS BEEN  
REINFORCED BY OVERNIGHT/MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM OK INTO AR.  
S OF THE BOUNDARY...NEAR SEASONAL MAXIMUM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS  
PRESENT /LOW-MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 15-19 G PER  
KG/. THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE  
RATES AND SOME SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...WILL SUPPORT STRONG  
BUOYANCY TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.  
 
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE  
WARM SECTOR WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 45 KT. A SUBTLE LEAD WAVE  
NOTED IN VWP DATA ACROSS W/NW TX IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL LIKELY  
HELP FOCUS NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM  
SECTOR NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN TX. STRONG BUOYANCY...RICH  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH  
OF 150-200 M2 PER S2/ WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...ISOLATED  
VERY LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS. FARTHER N...THE  
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY DRIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN OK...THOUGH  
CONTINUING ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIKELY  
LIMIT NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL THE SURFACE CYCLONE  
MOVES FARTHER N BY TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER INVOF  
THE WARM FRONT...AND THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES  
WITH STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW. LOW-LEVEL  
SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER  
FROM ABOUT I-35 EWD INTO SW AR.  
 
THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE  
LOW INTO SW OK. NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR IS A BIT  
UNCERTAIN...AND VWP/S ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF  
THE LEAD WAVE ON WIND PROFILES WITH THE MIDLEVEL BACKING. THERE IS  
SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE  
DETAILS OF BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS SW AND S CENTRAL OK  
THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO THE SPECIFIC EXPECTED STORM STRUCTURES ARE  
LIKEWISE UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN PART OF ENH RISK INTO SW OK FOR  
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH HAIL/WIND...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF  
TORNADOES...SINCE RECENT MESONET OBS DO SUGGEST WARMING AND  
MOISTENING IS OCCURRING.  
 
FARTHER E IN AR...THE LARGE OVERNIGHT MCS PERSISTS WITH AN MCV OVER  
N CENTRAL AR...AND STRONGER CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY  
ACROSS SRN AR. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THIS OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN  
QUASI-STATIONARY OR EVEN DRIFT SWD/SEWD AS A RESULT ON CONTINUING  
OUTFLOW REINFORCEMENT BY CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER  
WARM SECTOR STORMS HAVE FORMED IN NW LA WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS...AND  
MORE SUCH DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO NE TX AND  
NW LA. BUOYANCY/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL FAVOR A HAIL RISK WITH  
ANY SUSTAINED STORMS...ALONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW  
TORNADOES.  

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an upgrade to Moderate risk IMO in the red river valley at 1630z

 

with enhanced down I-35 in texas

No upgrade, but an extension down I-35 for the Enhanced risk, mostly for hail, and a slight increase in the TOR 10% in the Metroplex.

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Southwest Oklahoma to perhaps far northwest Texas looks like the obvious play. Very strong heating to the south of the warm front and plenty of shear to work with. 200-300 m2/s2 ESRH as of 17z along the Red River valley here. Very little cloud/convective contamination, so it's just a matter of getting a couple of storms to fire this afternoon.

post-533-0-82704600-1461949134_thumb.jpe

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Relatively impressive sig-tor numbers for 1630Z... The well-defined warm front across northern Texas should progress northward some into southern Oklahoma through the afternoon and evening bringing with it a moist and strongly unstable environment, impressive 50-70kt deep-layer shear later this evening atop that moist environment should set the stage for several severe thunderstorms including the risk for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes--especially INVOF the warm front.sbcp.gif?1461949543864

stpc.gif?1461949284934

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A lot of the UH tracks in the CAM guidance since last night have been associated with storms behind or quickly undercut by the CF, but the last couple runs of the HRRR are beginning to suggest we may get one or two cells cleanly in the warm sector for a few hours late this afternoon. I agree with thewxmann from last night, though: this setup is like a greatest hits of failure modes from recent seasons, and hodographs still look far from ideal along the Red River. I think a few tornadoes are possible, although I'd be a bit surprised if any are long-track. I like the I-35 corridor from OUN-DTO eastward to ADH-DVT as the best shot for this, despite a lot of that stretch being subpar chase country. If we didn't have the surging cold front (now progged near I-44 by 00z), this whole setup would probably be a bigger deal.

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Pretty great agreement about an impressive UH track in SW/C OK-- in the warm sector-- later this evening... HRRR also has been showing something pretty similar.

WRF-ARW

uh25_max.us_sc.pngWRF-NMMB

uh25_max.us_sc.pngWRF-NSSL

uh25_max.us_sc.png

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I know this was discussed earlier but is there another iOS app to download since TVN is done.

I really liked using that for work purposes to show my field staff where storms probably gooing to start

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Not sure if it means anything, but weak convection in SW OK is laying down an outflow boundary near a line from Quanah to Synder. Possible focal point?

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Absolutely. Though as a rule, never start in Frederick haha. There are like zero roads out of that place. Snyder is a good waiting point

I haven't chased OK before, though I do wish to in a week and a half when I have vacation, this is a good tip in case I find myself in Frederick.

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