forkyfork Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 Smoke from the Meadowlands fire earlier, being picked up by KDIX. there are ashes blowing around in the jersey city heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 They left 01-12 off the list by mistake. It was the second driest winter on record for NYC. So the summer of 99 and the winter of 01-02 were the last two top ten driest seasons for NYC. That was our last actual drought here when we hit D3 and the NYC reservoirs reached warning levels. Here is the monthly precipitation list: http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyannualprecip.pdf 20020416_northeast_trd.png Many thanks Bluewave, Donation, and others. I greatly appreciate your responses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 easy forecast next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 ouch-that sucks for us northern residents of the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 The backdoor pushes further south after it comes through on Monday. ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_8.png Looks like a 3-4 day thing. And not that cold. Temps in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Looks like a 3-4 day thing. And not that cold. Temps in the 60s. Beautiful temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Beautiful temps April is only -.5 in NYC now. Will likely finish +1 or greater. "Cold" months now are near normal to slightly below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Looks like a 3-4 day thing. And not that cold. Temps in the 60s. Forecast high is 52° here, but besides that it's mostly 60s like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Forecast high is 52° here, but besides that it's mostly 60s like you said. GFS has 70s next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 GFS has 70s next weekend. Sounds good to me. Tomorrow and Friday looks like 70s as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Don't be surprised if there is a day or two in there that doesn't get out of the 50's depending on cloud cover. f156.gif Nothing really abnormal about that. Even with all this "cold" talk this month, April is barely below average now and likely to finish above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 The big story is that the strong high latitude blocking patterns this month have kept any major April warmth here subdued. The early heat in March may have given the impression that we would be pushing 90 degrees here in April like many of the years up to 2012. NYC April highs 2016...82 so far 2015...80 2014...77 2013...82 2012...88 2011...83 2010...92 2009...92 2008...84 2007...86 2006...83 2005...87 2004...85 2003...88 2002...96 2001...87 2000...75 It's a different weather world now when a +10, that we had yesterday, is considered normal and not hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 It's a different weather world now when a +10, that we had yesterday, is considered normal and not hot. Yeah, post 2000 April heat really doesn't get impressive until you reach the upper 80's or the few occasions with 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 once the blocking goes, we're going to fry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Today makes 6 straight days where relative humidity has dropped into the teens during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 10.5% humidity now. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 The remaining negative departures could be wiped off by the weekend. Whether we get warm sectored or not next week will determine if we finish AN or not. If we finish AN with all this blocking in place, then just imagine what it's going to be like when that blocking goes away. The frying could begin as early as May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Today makes 6 straight days where relative humidity has dropped into the teens during the afternoon. NYC just dipped into the single digits. This may be a first for late April with such low RH. CENTRAL PARK SUNNY 66 9 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Frost advisories up for the Northwestern Counties of NJ. Don't think I'll see any here, but the conditions are right. It's just so dry out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Humidity is down to 9.7% in the park. When was the last time our humidity was in the single digits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Humidity is down to 9.7% in the park. When was the last time our humidity was in the single digits? Several houses went on fire in Copiague today which jumped a canal and turned into a large brush fire. The plume was so large from all the brush burning on Indian Island that it showed up on the radar. http://www.newsday.com/long-island/suffolk/copiague-fire-burns-homes-spreads-to-indian-island-1.11713065 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 8.9% now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 That's a great shot, people are getting some good quality equipment on these drones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Single digit humidity around here is a pretty astounding feat. What exactly has been the atmospheric mechanism for this dryness? Given the amount of soil moisture we usually have in the northeast, you wouldn't think such low humidity was possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 "Cold" months now are near normal to slightly below.Huh? February 2015 was one of the coldest months in NYC history at -11.4F, just slightly less impressive than January 1977 and February 1934. Jan-Mar 2015 averaged nearly 7F below normal. November was also below normal three seasons in a row, from Nov 2012 (which featured a major early season snowstorm) through Nov 2014. March was also below normal from 2013 to 2015. It is true, however, that very few months with cold anomalies have occurred in the warm season since the record-breaking chill of Summer 2009. This, though, is luck: climate models actually show the colder months warming faster than the summer in the long run due to additive albedo and radiative effects. So you can't sustain a substantive argument based on any of the points you have made or implied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Huh? February 2015 was one of the coldest months in NYC history at -11.4F, just slightly less impressive than January 1977 and February 1934. Jan-Mar 2015 averaged nearly 7F below normal. November was also below normal three seasons in a row, from Nov 2012 (which featured a major early season snowstorm) through Nov 2014. March was also below normal from 2013 to 2015. It is true, however, that very few months with cold anomalies have occurred in the warm season since the record-breaking chill of Summer 2009. This, though, is luck: climate models actually show the colder months warming faster than the summer in the long run due to additive albedo and radiative effects. So you can't sustain a substantive argument based on any of the points you have made or implied. How many record cold months have we set in the past 16 years vs record warm months? This is close to the proof by example logical fallacy. Yes, we've had some abnormally cold months, but they've been few and far between. However, warm months in every season have been commonplace, sometimes significantly so. Of the 12 months of the year, three of them were at their warmest in NYC history just last year (Sept, Nov, Dec). In the past 20+ years, no month has seen its coldest reading on record. In fact, the last time NYC set a monthly record for cold (e.g. coldest January on record), Woodrow Wilson was president. In the past 20 years, NYC has 6 of its top 10 warmest months on record (including the top 2), but only one of the top 10 coldest (at #9, Feb 2015). We also have the single greatest positive temperature departure on record for any month in December of 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 fwiw the gfs backed off big time on next week's cooldown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 fwiw the gfs backed off big time on next week's cooldown As did the euro. Has 2 coolish days on Wednesday and Thursday but still around 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Maybe the NW shift in the Gulf Stream closer to the coast is allowing the ridge to hang on more just to our south than the models were seeing earlier? In any event, the ridge doesn't completely flatten out so the backdoor bounces back north more easily. It looks like a tug of war between the Western Atlantic Ridge and the Greenland Block. older run model seeing more ridge holding on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Maybe the NW shift in the Gulf Stream closer to the coast is allowing the ridge to hang on more just to our south than the models were seeing earlier? In any event, the ridge doesn't completely flatten out so the backdoor bounces back north more easily. It looks like a tug of war between the Western Atlantic Ridge and the Greenland Block. 160421.112.0654.n19.jpg midatl_oisst_anom_20160419.png older run A.png model seeing more ridge holding on ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_6.png Been like this through the winter. The eastern ridge is too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.