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RyanDe680

March 23-24 System

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EUROwx maps a slightly more generous in IL.

post-7-0-94451700-1458627828.jpg

Based off progged temps from the sfc up to 850 mb, I think that snow map is too generous for nrn IL, far southern WI and southern lower MI. 850 mb temps are quite warm in that area until Thursday afternoon. Some cooling cuts underneath at 925 mb on Thursday, but I suspect not cold enough to even get sleet. Then just a brief window of cold enough profiles for snow at an unfavorable time of a day in late March. Taking into consideration the rest of the 00z guidance, I think you're right, cold rain is likely gonna be it with little in the way of any wintry precip accums. Would want to see a unusually strong Arctic high to the north to get much in way of ice this time of year.

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GRR pulled a tier of counties from the watch and now mentioning best 6"+ snow potential north of Ludington to Mount Pleasant, which is basically their far northern CWA and into the APX cwa. Not looking good at this point.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

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This one never stood a chance.

Cold air is kind of a requirement for snow.

 

Understatement of the year.

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MSP now included in the WSW. Nasty gradient on the northern edge though very close to the metro.

Reminds me of that storm, earlier in the winter that favored MSP.

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Yeah, that does make sense. I agree it was risky.

Officially the worst call that I can remember.

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GRR seriously did drop the ball on issuing the WSW that south Yesterday morning. Really a dumb idea.

 

The majority of the public doesn't know the difference between a watch and a warning. That's the problem.

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12z NAM has several inches of snow tomorrow for YYZ before we mix. QPF not that impressive when profiles favourable for ice so even though it's an extended period we may be able to avoid a siggy ice storm. 

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The GFS and NAM are trending more south now...might be too late to get too far south though. So nauseating seeing yet another band of heavy snow a couple counties away. Only this time it is to the north. Such is the winter of 15-16!

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The majority of the public doesn't know the difference between a watch and a warning. That's the problem.

In addition to that, the general public likely noticed this one as it is a late season storm, and made preparations for a significant amount of snow; which won't arrive.

Reading back through the discussion, GRR literally just picked the ONE model that showed significant accums across their area, and discounted all others. Not only a bad decision to issue a watch, but bad forecasting rationale in general. That's the kind of wishcasting we see on this board, not expected from an NWS office.

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The GFS and NAM are trending more south now...might be too late to get too far south though. So nauseating seeing yet another band of heavy snow a couple counties away. Only this time it is to the north. Such is the winter of 15-16!

 

Yeah, 6z GFS is about where the 0z GEFS mean was.

 

Nice little spring dusting.

 

acckucherasnowmw.png

 

That's a big jump south for the NAM.

crefptypemw.png

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The GFS has an apocalyptic snowband trailing the low that would drop FEET over someone.

 

My best guess.... 12-18 inches will be the jackpot in northern Lower.

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lol, give up bro

It showing a dusting here! Must see snow one more time! Lol

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Just a little bit flatter and the cities of Madison, Milwaukee, Muskegon, GR, Saginaw, and Flint would be in snow business.

 

And slightly colder 850's. 

 

GEM looks similar on the black and white maps. 999mb low over PIA at 48 hours. Near Erie at 60 hours; 999mb. 

 

DLL is going to be snowed in.

 

acckucherasnowmw.png

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And slightly colder 850's. 

 

GEM looks similar on the black and white maps. 999mb low over PIA at 48 hours. Near Erie at 60 hours; 999mb.

It looks like the cold front sinks a bit farther down too?

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In addition to that, the general public likely noticed this one as it is a late season storm, and made preparations for a significant amount of snow; which won't arrive.

Reading back through the discussion, GRR literally just picked the ONE model that showed significant accums across their area, and discounted all others. Not only a bad decision to issue a watch, but bad forecasting rationale in general. That's the kind of wishcasting we see on this board, not expected from an NWS office.

 

ECMWF's reputation has earned it a lot of respect.  If it had been only the GFS or only the NAM with that scenario, less likely they would've sided with those...imo.

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It looks like the cold front sinks a bit farther down too?

 

I have to wait until the PW maps load up, it's too hard to see on those b&w maps.

 

In southern Ontario it is everything but the kitchen sink. Snow to mix to rain.

acckucherasnowne.png

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Actually, the low on the GGEM is a bit more north. Hah.

 

Through 33 hours it's more or less the same. In the NW corner of MO. One county south at 39 hours - so pretty much the same.

Front is staying further south on this run. Rain/Snow line one county north of you.

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