USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Models show blizzard conditions occurring on the Cape and Nantucket, with 30-35mph sustained winds with gusts to 50mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Even the 12km NAM brings heavy snow onto the Cape and ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Storm becomes hybrid off the coast, more like an eye feature shows up as it feeds off the Gulf Stream and winds up to 970mb like the 4km NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Even the 12km NAM brings heavy snow onto the Cape and ACK. The 12km NAM might give you 2 inches of snow. It's not impressive. the 4km NAM is what you have to hope for. RGEM is very unimpressive as well...even more unimpressive than the 12km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 heavy, heavy flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The 4km NAM is more accurate than the 12km NAM, so I would side with the 4km NAM. It has a more accurate depiction of a storm crossing the Gulf Stream, down to 972mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 This storm becomes super organized rapidly as it gets off the NC coastline, which is why if the track of the surface low is more northeastward it would make sense as a more powerful storm heads further northward. The storm as some have said earlier that it looks really concentric with equal winds all around its center with 80 knot winds on the western side of the wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I look at the radar returns on the NAM and it shows heavy snow over CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The 4km NAM is more accurate than the 12km NAM, so I would side with the 4km NAM. It has a more accurate depiction of a storm crossing the Gulf Stream, down to 972mb If the 12km NAM showed you getting more snow, while the 4km NAM whiffed, which model would be more accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 the 12km NAM increased snowfall totals on CHH. Up to 2-4" depending upon ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 If the 4km NAM whiffed I would go with it still, but it didn't so stop playing games because this could bring serious conditions to Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Yeah I saw the OES signature. Definitely could be a couple of decent bands, and you have a little seeder-feeder above too. But overall...not to bust your bubble James...but I may want a little more than the 4KM NAM. I mean even a hint at it....I'm not saying all models crush the Cape, but give me a little more than the 4Km NAM. The one thing that has been on guidance is a separate area of weak mid level deformation as seen on the NAM. That could allow for a band or two...but I'm not sure it argues for being aggressive, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 GFS wants to dive the arctic jet energy down into the Pacific Shortwave trough, potential phasing could bring this storm more northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Scott the GFS is coming in now, and through 18 hours at H5 it looks like the arctic jet energy is diving further into the pacific jet trough allowing a more northward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 This is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Scott the GFS is coming in now, and through 18 hours at H5 it looks like the arctic jet energy is diving further into the pacific jet trough allowing a more northward movement. I am not seeing that. If anything, the GFS looks southeast through 30 hours vs 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Tag that boy. Bring back the tags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Heavy, Heavy wish casting with very little model support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The GFS shows potential convective feedback as H5 moves northeastward and surface jumps eastward to convection, we had the same problem with the Blizzard of 2016, where the models outside of 24 hours showed a strong eastward push at the surface while it ended up moving more northeastward, I think we are dealing with the same facts with this system as well, the Gulf Stream can be a tricky entity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Dryslot, I am not even sure why you are posting in this thread, the storm doesn't even impact you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The GFS shows potential convective feedback as H5 moves northeastward and surface jumps eastward to convection, we had the same problem with the Blizzard of 2016, where the models outside of 24 hours showed a strong eastward push at the surface while it ended up moving more northeastward, I think we are dealing with the same facts with this system as well, the Gulf Stream can be a tricky entity. This one's not coming back. Hope for some outer deform bands to get you 2-3"...but the big blizzard idea for the Cape is mostly gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Yeah Will, I think convective feedback is developing or happening with the GFS we have seen this before, why can't it happen again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Dryslot, I am not even sure why you are posting in this thread, the storm doesn't even impact you. Because i post where i want, Its weather, And this does not affect 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999% of this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 While I think the heavy snow totals are done, I think 3-6" is still reasonable, now casting suggests the main storm is further north across the OH Valley. But the winds might be strong tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 GFS mirrors the RGEM. Game ova for big accumulations James. Just hope you can get 1-3" at this point. It would be a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Because i post where i want, Its weather, And this does not affect 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999% of this board And while you love the weather, stop posting bs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 One thing I noticed is that the GFS is much stronger with the surface low this run, down to 978 or 976mb, that is the model finally seeing the Gulf Stream anomalies in my honest opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Jimmy.. Get ahold of yourself man . Dear Lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Dryslot, I am not even sure why you are posting in this thread, the storm doesn't even impact you. It will impact you only slightly more than it impacts him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Jimmy.. Get ahold of yourself man . Dear Lord agreed JNGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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