PackGrad05 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Any hope for central NC at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Any hope for central NC at this point? Not much. 6Z GFS at hour 72 has snow for the SW mountains and central / NE Virginia (nice storm for them): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=03&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=06&fhour=72¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false 6z NAM at hour 72 only has snow for the SW mountains (of any significance): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=03&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=06&fhour=72¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false NAM earlier at hour 45: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=03&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=06&fhour=45¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Bottom line, if you want snow go to the Smoky Mountains.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 09z SREF jumped up big on probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 09z SREF jumped up big on probabilities One member gives Greensboro 17.5 inches. Take that out and it looks much more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 One member gives Greensboro 17.5 inches. Take that out and it looks much more reasonable.Yeah I wish these probabilities could take out outliers. If there's one monster central NC storm it makes sense why it jumped up for everyone and not just that the storm chances are getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Been no shortage of sw's that have tracked southeast of us this winter. Either it's been just to far east or temps. Looking at this below you just have to laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Most ARW SREF members show accumulating snow for GSO whole most NMB members show nothing. I think the SREF probabilities just take the raw number of members showing >1" of snowfall divided by the total number of members, so I dont think they're susceptible to being skewed by outliers like the mean is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The 12z RGEM is pretty interesting, except it doesn't have a lot of precip to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The 12z RGEM is pretty interesting, except it doesn't have a lot of precip to work with. Yeah, little NW NC special. Question is...are you going to stay awake to watch it fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 4km NAM has a little backlash over Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The 12z RGEM is pretty interesting, except it doesn't have a lot of precip to work with. If it dips any further south, it will be tapping into the gulf moisture! Anyway, it looks like all of the models have moved away from the two areas of low/miller B thing that some were showing. How's the UKMET look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 If it dips any further south, it will be tapping into the gulf moisture! Anyway, it looks like all of the models have moved away from the two areas of low/miller B thing that some were showing. How's the UKMET look? Yeah, looks like most of the modeling has moved towards a Miller A type system. I'd have to think we'd be looking a lot better if we had more precip to work with (which would overcome the BL issues). The UKMET is not out yet, but it should be out soon. It was pretty far south last night and barely got any precip up in N NC. Yeah, little NW NC special. Question is...are you going to stay awake to watch it fall. Definitely... decent chance I am moving to a place where it does not snow this summer. I need to soak up all the snow I can get in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Yeah, looks like most of the modeling has moved towards a Miller A type system. I'd have to think we'd be looking a lot better if we had more precip to work with (which would overcome the BL issues). The UKMET is not out yet, but it should be out soon. It was pretty far south last night and barely got any precip up in N NC. Definitely... decent chance I am moving to a place where it does not snow this summer. I need to soak up all the snow I can get in the meantime. Sucks your moving, but you won't miss snow if it's nice weather in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Definitely... decent chance I am moving to a place where it does not snow this summer. I need to soak up all the snow I can get in the meantime. You must be moving to Carrollton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Yeah, looks like most of the modeling has moved towards a Miller A type system. I'd have to think we'd be looking a lot better if we had more precip to work with (which would overcome the BL issues). The UKMET is not out yet, but it should be out soon. It was pretty far south last night and barely got any precip up in N NC. Definitely... decent chance I am moving to a place where it does not snow this summer. I need to soak up all the snow I can get in the meantime. Waycross ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I'm assuming that there were no changes in the Euro??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I'm assuming that there were no changes in the Euro??? About the same, it seems. The BL is a little warm for us. 850s are okay. though somewhat borderline. Probably mostly rain with some snow mixed in... around 0.4" QPF. I wish the surface temps were better. The surface low really wraps up around Cape Hatteras compared to some of the other modeling. And my potential destination would be the Florida panhandle, so less snow than Waycross (I think statistically the area gets >1" of snow every 17 years). We'll see what happens with that, though. I should know soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 About the same, it seems. The BL is a little warm for us. 850s are okay. though somewhat borderline. Probably mostly rain with some snow mixed in... around 0.4" QPF. I wish the surface temps were better. The surface low really wraps up around Cape Hatteras compared to some of the other modeling. And my potential destination would be the Florida panhandle, so less snow than Waycross (I think statistically the area gets >1" of snow every 17 years). We'll see what happens with that, though. I should know soon. You can pray for the 1899 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Maybe we can get more precip and a little colder temps than the models are showing. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The 18z NAM is coming in colder and wetter. Surface temps are near freezing for the I-40 corridor, too. Boom for mountain locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Maybe we can get more precip and a little colder temps than the models are showing. Maybe. Well, the 18z NAM is coming in colder...looks interesting for the NW Triad and foothills. Couple of more shifts...story of the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 NAM says lets boogie one more time WNC. Colder, wetter, souther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Dang, the NAM is really hammering portions of SE VA as the low bombs off of Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looks like NE NC gets in on the deformation band at hour 42 on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Places south of Richmond are over 6 inches on NAM kind of looks like EURO. 4km NAM looks much better for N NC and S VA as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looks like a nice band from RDU eastward at hour 42. 850s would be cold enough at RDU. Simulated radar: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=042ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_042_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160302+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Places south of Richmond are over 6 inches on NAM kind of looks like EURO. 4km NAM looks much better for N NC and S VA as well This is looking better and better here in Marion. This might sneak up on some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Snow accumulations at hour 45. Nothing to write home about but better than past runs (especially northern mountains, SE Virginia): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=03&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=18&fhour=45¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 This is looking better and better here in Marion. This might sneak up on some folks. I think we're in for a nice finalie to winter. Looks like a few inches are a given for you and I, I'll be upgrading my winter grade to an A, before it's over. Well be at 175% above climo hopefully when it's all said an done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I think we're in for a nice finalie to winter. Looks like a few inches are a given for you and I, I'll be upgrading my winter grade to an A, before it's over. Well be at 175% above climo hopefully when it's all said an done. Agreed. A solid winter here for sure. I wouldn't mind seeing a few inches. Getting on a plane and heading to Orlando next week to spend the week watching some baseball and it's supposed to be mid 80s so I'll have time to thaw out then. It's been a fun one this winter for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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