Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The 00z NAM might be the best NAM run back for the I-40 corridor and the NC border counties. Hmm. The usually conservative WB clown has 2"+ from I-40 northward. How far East of 40? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Can you say slightly over done Guidance models continue to come in a little colder and with less low pressure from the northern stream. The European and American weather computers have now both lost the northern stream low! This means more energy for the southern stream low pressure system which can pull more cold air into the system. If the southern stream low continues to trend stronger then snowfall totals will go up and temperatures will continue to go down. The image below currently reflects WXeasterns idea of snow accumulations tomorrow night thru Saturday but keep in mind this is a changing situation... 9 Comments41 Shares 5858 Like Like Love Haha Wow Sad Angry CommentShare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The 00z UKMET is a lot wetter than past runs. The RGEM also looks similar to the NAM. Can't wait for a sneaky warm nose and QPF bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I'll take this look from RGEM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I'll take this look from RGEM! I still think my call on February 29th looks good for you! 1-2". There could be some mix during the onset Thursday with sleet initially with rain/snow mix or all rain before the snow overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I still think my call on February 29th looks good for you! 1-2". There could be some mix during the onset Thursday with sleet initially with rain/snow mix or all rain before the snow overnight. Yeah, I agree! I'll be surprised to see 1 inch. When does the rain suppose to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Dang, the Euro just came in colder. The clown shows 3" here. 850s are just below freezing here on the 6-hr panels, at least, with 0.4" QPF. Surface temps fall into the low 30s. There could be a sneaky warm nose in there above 850 mb, but I have no way to know. Crushes SE VA. The Euro is pretty meager with precip for the mountains, though. Mostly around 0.2" QPF there. Lots of uncertainty. I'm starting to think we might be able to eek out some light slushy accumulations here. Maybe. I'm usually too optimistic, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Dang, the Euro just came in colder. The clown shows 3" here. 850s are just below freezing here on the 6-hr panels, at least, with 0.4" QPF. Surface temps fall into the low 30s. There could be a sneaky warm nose in there above 850 my, but I have no way to know. Crushes SE VA. rut roh, may have to back track my Inch prediction, and up it to 1.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Yeah, I agree! I'll be surprised to see 1 inch. When does the rain suppose to start? Sometime between 2-5pm there could be non-accumulating mix potential to rain while mountains are predominately snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Sometime between 2-5pm there could be non-accumulating mix potential to rain while mountains are predominately snow. OK, appreciate the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 32...33...34 will save most locations in NC from a very icy mess Friday morning for places like Statesville and Winston-Salem. I think rain turning to ice will be a bigger concern for mountains underneath the snow. This will be for the mountains areas who don't start to end as all snow. Also some potential for this water to ice just around or just east of Asheville up to Mount Airy if temps can bottom out in the upper 20s by 8am post precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Given marginal cold air and no start as snow east of the mountains...this map shouldn't be too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I'm surprised there's not any advisories for the mountains of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I'm surprised there's not any advisories for the mountains of NC. They are coming after 0z review and analysis even outside of the mountains 1-2" product for my backyard via Skype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Dang, the Euro just came in colder. The clown shows 3" here. 850s are just below freezing here on the 6-hr panels, at least, with 0.4" QPF. Surface temps fall into the low 30s. There could be a sneaky warm nose in there above 850 mb, but I have no way to know. Crushes SE VA. The Euro is pretty meager with precip for the mountains, though. Mostly around 0.2" QPF there. Lots of uncertainty. I'm starting to think we might be able to eek out some light slushy accumulations here. Maybe. I'm usually too optimistic, though. It's a no go for more than a trace to 0.5" around your neck of the woods in terms of wet snowfall accumulations. Check out the cloud product from WU on the 0z EURO, you finally get the critical temps you need only because of clearing skies develop in the foothills between hour 30-33 while moisture is shunted east well before then. I hope I'm wrong tho and if we were to ever be surprised in a good way it usually only happens in March. I would think you are far away from 0.5" range...closer to trace to 0.25" snow. Those that sleep till 9 or 10am may miss it in the Piedmont. Mountains are sweet spot on Euro on I think because I'm favoring a very thermal critically driven system for snow even if you eek out more moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Congrats Columbia NC....might have to drive 30-40 miles east, heck the southern little line of 2-4" is only 15 miles SE of me lol would love for that to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 6z GFS 4"+ north GA mountains, 3" NC foothills and northern Piedmont, 4-8" mountains, 6"+ in VA piedmont with Winter Storm Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Blacksburg went with advisory up to 4" and winter storm warnings up to 5" Warnings just north-east of Mount Airy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Blacksburg went with advisory up to 4" and winter storm warnings up to 5" Warnings just north-east of Mount Airy May be a surprise for some of us folks? 2-4 is very possible looking now for foothillsSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 experimental 24hr hrrr has snow juuuust to the north of rdu under the heaviest precip band around 3am. not expecing anything but if short range models trend better i may have to stay up late just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 That sun just burned through that inversion like nobody's business. I think rain fro Mooresville, with snow in the highest elevations. Good day to go to the mountains tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 experimental 24hr hrrr has snow juuuust to the north of rdu under the heaviest precip band around 3am. not expecing anything but if short range models trend better i may have to stay up late just in case. Looks like I might be in a good spot in Wake County for this one. I don't think anything will really stick, but it would be nice to see snow fall for a while without changing to sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 NAM is a little further south and therefore drier in the areas cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 12z NAM looks to coming in just a little bit colder. Has the low a little farther off the coast at hour 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 12k looks like crap way lower snow totals etc....almost nothing outside mts in NC at 30, not even a lot in VA, 00Z had 4-7" this run has 2" at best even in VA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 12k looks like crap way lower snow totals etc....almost nothing outside mts in NC at 30, not even a lot in VA, 00Z had 4-7" this run has 2" at best even in VA.... namconus_asnow_seus_11.png Looking at that looks like widespread 3 inches in the mountains with a hint at 4 inches in the smokies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 12k looks like crap way lower snow totals etc....almost nothing outside mts in NC at 30, not even a lot in VA, 00Z had 4-7" this run has 2" at best even in VA.... namconus_asnow_seus_11.png Yep, just not enough cold air. Nice low track but we get unlucky again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Yep, just not enough cold air. Nice low track but we get unlucky again... 4k a smidge better but I would take the under of these totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 nam no snow for rdu. oh well. on to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Another run, another different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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