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Winter Storm March 1st-2nd (Part 2)


Powerball

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GGEM

 

acckucherasnowmw.png

 

I hope the southern Ontario folks are ready for the big one!

 

acckucherasnowne.png

Would be a nice way to end this dread full winter... Mixing still is on my mind as per the NAM and GFS in the region but the colder trends in Chicago area and the GEM might be a good sign here. Could it be a Gem GFS blend once again for the correct outcome? Time will tell.

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Would be a nice way to end this dread full winter... Mixing still is on my mind as per the NAM and GFS in the region but the colder trends in Chicago area and the GEM might be a good sign here. Could it be a Gem GFS blend once again for the correct outcome? Time will tell.

 

Wouldn't be surprised to see you stay all snow there. The air mass moving in means business.

We'll see what the EURO shows next.

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Looks like an easy call to upgrade the GTA to a warning. Not sure if EC will pull the trigger this afternoon or give it another model cycle and wait 'til overnight.

Liquid-snow ratios have been modelled to be very good, so even if some of the lower end precipitation outputs verify I think we would still get to warning criteria.

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Liquid-snow ratios have been modelled to be very good, so even if some of the lower end precipitation outputs verify I think we would still get to warning criteria.

 

Yup. NAM/GFS QPF on 10:1 would still yield 6-7". And given the way this winter's gone, that's going to seem like a lot more than it actually is to the public.

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12.0" on the nose for downtown Toronto. 12.8" at YYZ. Outside chance we match our WTD snowfall with this storm.

 

Unfortunate you are here in London and not in TO if the models are to be believed, and that is a big IF.  Synoptic hell in London or TO, very little to choose from either place.   Hard to take the GGEM seriously with both places over 10 inches - maybe cut it in half......

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Unfortunate you are here in London and not in TO if the models are to be believed, and that is a big IF.  Synoptic hell in London or TO, very little to choose from either place.   Hard to take the GGEM seriously with both places over 10 inches - maybe cut it in half......

 

Think 3-6" is a good call here for now. The differences in the NCEP guidance and the GEM/UKIE becomes more pronounced in SW Ontario so I'm hesitant to go north of that attm.

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