Thundersnow12 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 my call is in trouble Yeah 18z run kinda buries you with 5".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Might catch the bottom part of that system early on Friday night. Probably mostly a WI snowfall. 4km NAM slightly south. Still pushing 4" in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I have a flight Thursday morning. Here's to Hoping this actually doesn't pan out haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Ratios look a little questionable with this one...iow don't expect one of those super fluff scenarios. Maybe near 10:1 south and like 13:1 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjk254 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yep, IWX going with 10:1 to 12:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Ratios look a little questionable with this one...iow don't expect one of those super fluff scenarios. Maybe near 10:1 south and like 13:1 north. LOT mentioned 13-15:1 in the morning AFD. I'd think you'd only around 15:1 or so in any banding that occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 LOT mentioned 13-15:1 in the morning AFD. I'd think you'd only around 15:1 or so in any banding that occurs. Yeah, best lift seems to be below the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 GFS a little bit south of the NAM. And this is the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Euro a little wetter today, and American models continued to adjust down from their way too wet scenarios from the past few days. Gonna ride my first call for now, but may have to bump up to 2" or so if models don't do rug pulling like they've done several times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 LOT mentioned 13-15:1 in the morning AFD. I'd think you'd only around 15:1 or so in any banding that occurs. JB is saying 20 to 30:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Euro a little wetter today, and American models continued to adjust down from their way too wet scenarios from the past few days. Gonna ride my first call for now, but may have to bump up to 2" or so if models don't do rug pulling like they've done several times this winter. lol you're a lock for 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 JB is saying 20 to 30:1 Ratio forecasting is notoriously tricky but the drawback to the idea of anything that high is lack of a really deep dgz and lift generally not ideally located in that zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 JB is saying 20 to 30:1 For where? Lol, LOT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Jb is a hack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 This looks good for a advisory type event except for maybe the far northeast LOT CWA and surrounding areas. My guess is that most if not all of the CWA will get an advisory unless things really back off/trend south. This will be even if amounts look likely to end up lower than typical criteria in northeast IL considering accumulating snow still occurring during the Thursday morning commute. Though the lake is mild for early March, thermal profiles don't really appear favorable for lake enhancement. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Here's the NAM from tonight. Subtract off in the Thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Lol at 30:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Think I'll bump up my call to 2-4" now. Probably should have earlier when the Euro increased qpf, but the pissyness of the winter got the best of me, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Yeah, 2-4" is a good call Cyclone. GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The following system. Going to hit the average snowfall for March if these two systems pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Next 2 systems combined from the GFS. Some pretty nice dumpage, although, the snow will be completely gone within a day or two given the temperatures the models are putting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GGEM on the Saturday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 06z NAM "wetter" than 00z. Would be MY biggest snowfall since November. Trend is our friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looking lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 catching up on overnight guidamce...it's amazing how consistently these pac/clipper hybrids have trended weaker inside 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 For tomorrows snow, locally NAM would be like 3-5", GEM & GFS 1-2", and Euro a whiff. Another event, more model disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Friday's Saturday's system looks like rain to end it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looks like another FAB storm brewing. Flurries @ Best Good luck Cyclone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 12z going to be even weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 looks like a miss well south and not all that strong at that .50" final call looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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