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Ji

Presidents Day storm Part 2

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Lol sampled. The mets who know on that can talk forever and no one will listen.

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Of course right after my post I look at the RGEM and it flipped to bone dry through 12z mon. Lol

Toss. We are in full wishful thinking mode here.

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Lol sampled. The mets who know on that can talk forever and no one will listen.

I think most people that say that stuff here just do so because they read it some place. If you read AFDs, its not uncommon to see mention of model guidance wrt sampling of specific features. I know I have seen it in Mount Holly AFDs a dozen times this winter.

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People have their hands over their ears...or eyes in this case.

Too bad it's not over their mouths

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Sorry, I'll stick to obs. Still trying to learn. Signed, just a dumb plow driver.....

 

Nah, don't be offended.  The "sampling thing" happens to be a pet peeve of mine, particularly when parroted by mets.

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GFS is a nice thump of 2-4"... looks like it changes to ZR for a bit before the surface torches and everybody goes to plain rain.

Maybe if you hug the snow maps...I dont like the prospects for 2-4" for DC-Balt based on that run

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I think most people that say that stuff here just do so because they read it some place. If you read AFDs, its not uncommon to see mention of model guidance wrt sampling of specific features. I know I have seen it in Mount Holly AFDs a dozen times this winter.

Yes many knowledgeables share that info as truth. Too many. I think mainly they are not considering the vast increase in NWP over the past decade or two. One of those things that once might have been more true than it is now. Sort of just stuck with people. Extra sampling is mostly for QC etc I think. It's also a good PR move when gov can say they are pulling out all the stops to nail the forecast. Think there's probably value just not in the way most people assume. Severe wx outbreaks somewhat different as 18z special soundings can give local insights on hotspots that might be otherwise missed.

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Of course right after my post I look at the RGEM and it flipped to bone dry through 12z mon. Lol

there was a storm in 2012 I think similar to this where we got screwed because the frontrunner waa snow went south of us. Central va got 3-5" from that. Then the main low bombed up west and by the time that got precip in it was changing to rain. Just something to look out for. I am becoming interested in that trailing system.

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Maybe if you hug the snow maps...I dont like the prospects for 2-4" for DC-Balt based on that run

 

 

DC gets 0.3" of precipitation with temperatures at or below freezing from 12z Monday to 00z Tuesday in the form of snow, taking this run verbatim.

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I also think Dry air is going to be an issue particularly for the "early" stuff on Monday...light precip isnt going to do well in my opinion

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DC gets 0.3" of precipitation with temperatures at or below freezing from 12z Monday to 00z Tuesday in the form of snow, taking this run verbatim.

Looks like a possible warm layer to me..Im not sure hr 57 is snow, particularly for DC on the GFS

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This sfc low is looking pretty lame in closing. But I still don't really get the ice storm talk east of the BR.

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there was a storm in 2012 I think similar to this where we got screwed because the frontrunner waa snow went south of us. Central va got 3-5" from that. Then the main low bombed up west and by the time that got precip in it was changing to rain. Just something to look out for. I am becoming interested in that trailing system.

That seems to be a trend to watch with this one. I dont think the GFS gets anything significant into my area until the torch has commenced.

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Yes many knowledgeables share that info as truth. Too many. I think mainly they are not considering the vast increase in NWP over the past decade or two. One of those things that once might have been more true than it is now. Sort of just stuck with people. Extra sampling is mostly for QC etc I think. It's also a good PR move when gov can say they are pulling out all the stops to nail the forecast. Think there's probably value just not in the way most people assume. Severe wx outbreaks somewhat different as 18z special soundings can give local insights on hotspots that might be otherwise missed.

Pretty much spot on.  When it is used as a broad generalization, it demonstrates a general lack of understanding in terms of how NWP models are initialized.  The 18z special soundings are a good example where that extra detailed information can make a huge difference.  Another good example is the set of surveillance observations that are taken from the hurricane missions.  By in large, however, this kind of stuff is irrelevant to discussing broader, synoptic-scale initialization.

 

While all mets are trained in terms of using NWP, many (most?) of them lack training in terms of how things really work under the hood.  

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I think the NWS has the right idea with a possible 1-3" for areas east of BR I just dont see a lot of forcing for heavy precipitate to really have a solid thump. Monday morning dews could also be an issue as I said.

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Looks like a possible warm layer to me..Im not sure hr 57 is snow, particularly for DC on the GFS

 

It  is, but who cares?  This event is terrible...we're going to have a day of flurries and then once it starts coming down it will flip...I probably got more a couple hours ago when I was sleeping

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Looks like a possible warm layer to me..Im not sure hr 57 is snow, particularly for DC on the GFS

 

It is snow... easily

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