SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z GGEM at 84 has 1011mb SLP S AL/N FL border... 96 is 1007mb SLP just offshore Delmarva Seems to be weaker/more progressive than the GFS which is I guess what we're hoping for. Will be interesting to see the UK and Euro opinion on this matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Much more believable track. Yeah, we do get the random Apps runner, but it's rarer. As in almost never, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 So NAM/GFS/GGEM have a good front-end thump of 4-8 inches for DC area... nice to see. Getting closer to the event now (within 72-96 hours) so hopefully the models are starting to catch on to a stronger front end, a weaker SLP overall with a east track, and the CAD over the area. I'm fine with any snow at the beginning. Still, would be nice to have a few runs in a row show the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Here was our original bet Bob Chill, on 28 Jan 2016 - 8:03 PM, said: I'll take the other side (70% chance we won't), but will still root for snow and hope to be proven wrong. Then I posted: "To clarify, you said a 70% of a 2-4"/3-6" event occurring by 2/15 and I took the other side. But that means we're both saying a 30% chance of failing. IOW, you think there's twice as much of a chance that it happens and I say twice as much of a chance of not happening, but neither of us rule it out completely. See how mets can get away with claiming victory even when they're wrong? lol" So IF it snows on 2/15, was my 2 out of 3 chances of not reaching it a better or worse call? We don't have to answer that now, but this run of the GFS says maybe 2" doesn't fall before 2/16 at BWI lol MON 18Z 15-FEB -1.6 -6.2 1028 86 98 0.06 554 531 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -0.4 -1.0 1025 96 100 0.22 556 536 TUE 06Z 16-FEB 2.8 2.4 1016 100 93 0.21 555 543 Oh, the suspense! I would never make a bet with Bob Chill like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEM looks like all snow Leesburg and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I would never make a bet with Bob Chill like that! I'd do that bet again seeing what I saw. I think it was a darn good call on my part to be honest. Considering what the "models" were showing then and the fact that BWI has recorded .4" snow since 1/28/16, and that I still said there was a 30% chance a storm with 2" could occur, what more can anyone ask for with a 17 day call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This forum is so much more informative! NYC forum is getting horrible they got someone on there who is not even a met acting like he has all the answers and the usual back and forth nonsense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'd do that bet again seeing what I saw. I think it was a darn good call on my part to be honest. Considering what the "models" were showing then and the fact that BWI has recorded .4" snow since 1/28/16, and that I still said there was a 30% chance a storm with 2" could occur, what more can anyone ask for with a 17 day call? And you still havent lost the bet yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEM looks like all snow Leesburg and west. I don't think so. Much worse for I95 this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'd do that bet again seeing what I saw. I think it was a darn good call on my part to be honest. Considering what the "models" were showing then and the fact that BWI has recorded .4" snow since 1/28/16, and that I still said there was a 30% chance a storm with 2" could occur, what more can anyone ask for with a 17 day call? Science over gambling fwiw, I'd never make that bet with you either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GGEM is further east and weaker than the GFS which results in all frozen even for DC it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I don't think so. Much worse for I95 this run. It's close. 850 Looks like it pushes just to western Loudoun and then comes east again. Some mixing I'm sure but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 And you still havent lost the bet yet. No, but even if it did snow 2" or more on the last 6 hours of the 15th, I think my 30% chance covered that chance. But, it's too early. It could snow 2" between now and tomorrow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'd do that bet again seeing what I saw. I think it was a darn good call on my part to be honest. Considering what the "models" were showing then and the fact that BWI has recorded .4" snow since 1/28/16, and that I still said there was a 30% chance a storm with 2" could occur, what more can anyone ask for with a 17 day call? The pattern has sucked.. Strong nino is a pain. The threats last weekend were a joke. I'd go down with the ship on this one before buying the Canadian lol. 2 Euros > everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GGEM is further east and weaker than the GFS which results in all frozen even for DC it seems. getting nervous about the Euro...I hate when things start to look better and the 1pm rolls around.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's close. 850 Looks like it pushes just to western Loudoun and then comes east again. Some mixing I'm sure but close. That's great news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's close. 850 Looks like it pushes just to western Loudoun and then comes east again. Some mixing I'm sure but close. I'm going by those black and white maps some Canadian draws on a cave wall and then gets copies into the computer. But along I95, it's definitely warmer than last night from those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I don't think so. Much worse for I95 this run. From GG: According to the GEM's PTYPE (looking at tropicaltidbit's maps... I don't get ptype from my WSI interface), you (and I) don't go to rain even by H96... we go to ice. Snow, ice, no rain (unless mixed is identified the same way as ice... maybe we mix). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This is all frozen from dc - baltimore west according to the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This is all frozen from dc - baltimore west according to the GEM. Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z UKIE QPF map looks like we would have some good overrunnning potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 At 96 Ukie has a 1000 mb LP on the GA/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 From GG: According to the GEM's PTYPE (looking at tropicaltidbit's maps... I don't get ptype from my WSI interface), you (and I) don't go to rain even by H96... we go to ice. Snow, ice, no rain (unless mixed is identified the same way as ice... maybe we mix). Yeah, I said I was going by the black and white maps printed in a cave. Can't win em' all. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GGEM never goes to plain liquid...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I don't think so. Much worse for I95 this run. GGEM is further east and weaker than the GFS which results in all frozen even for DC it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z UKIE QPF map looks like we would have some good overrunnning potential Ukie takes it way inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The pattern has sucked.. Strong nino is a pain. The threats last weekend were a joke. I'd go down with the ship on this one before buying the Canadian lol. 2 Euros > everything else. Yeah, after today's run, combined with yesterday's runs, it will have everything from the Mississippi eastward covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 lol GGEM. I wish it was the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GGEM is terrible. I don't care about verification scores.. it sucks with EC storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Ukie takes it way inland You sure this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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