cae Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm not a met and I don't have the historical knowledge of many posters here, but if I were a weenie in Ohio I'd be nervous about something like the 06z GFS (or yesterday's 18z GFS) verifying. Every one of the Canadian ensemble members last night had at least some snow for DC. There's also a lot of freezing rain. 00z GEFS were less snowy with not nearly as many members showing freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM is a great run, but it is the NAM. This is pretty much all front-end thump, looks like a shift to fairly heavy rain afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 please God let the Nam be right for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Epic Nam run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The NAM has always been my favorite. Looks like it keeps the rain to the east of DC, but does bring ice into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAMd. Surface temps never get above freezing cities and west. Total precip by 0Z Tue is closing in on an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 please God let the Nam be right for once Para euro was halfway there last night. We have a chance at a decent event on the front. Hopefully things will be relatively locked in with non-nam good guidance tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If you juiced up the NAM a little bit, doesn't it look an awful lot like Feb 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like things are trending eastward ... headed in the right direction. Yesterday's western shift just didn't make much sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 6z para gfs not enthusiastic on the front end but would be a couple inches before the flip. Track is still west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like things are trending eastward ... headed in the right direction. Yesterday's western shift just didn't make much sense. what trended eastward? The 6z GFS was awfully west. the nam at 72-84 isnt usually a trend. Its usually wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 6z para gfs not enthusiastic on the front end but would be a couple inches before the flip. Track is still west though. how is a couple of inches not enthusiastic...sounds better than 6z OP though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 how is a couple of inches not enthusiastic...sounds better than 6z OP though I was comparing to NAM and para euro. NAM is trippin though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like things are trending eastward ... headed in the right direction. Yesterday's western shift just didn't make much sense. Still like to see that H over Boston at least instead of off the Jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 please God let the Nam be right for once You and I both know that it's not going to be right. It'll just serve to give us false hope and toward the end, we'll wonder (again) why we ever trusted the NAM. Although....isn't it supposed to be good with CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 You and I both know that it's not going to be right. It'll just serve to give us false hope and toward the end, we'll wonder (again) why we ever trusted the NAM. Although....isn't it supposed to be good with CAD if we are going to see changes...its going to be today. By tomorrow, things are probably going to be locked in. its dark and damp here in the valley bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 i think the strength of the storm is making a big difference. If you look at the 00z GGEM and the 12z NAM, low pressure is really week when its snowing over us. GFS and Euro were like at 1000mb..Nam/GGEM at 1008mb or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like things are trending eastward ... headed in the right direction. Yesterday's western shift just didn't make much sense. respectfully disagree. the west shift made sense based on how the models were interpreting the data. GFS still seeing west solution. not sold it won't be straight up I95 track...but I do agree the CAD is always erased too quickly so maybe longer frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 My, my, my how short the memory of some is. The NAM did a damn fine job with the blizzard. Intentional negativity isn't the same as objectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like things are trending eastward ... headed in the right direction. Yesterday's western shift just didn't make much sense. Not much of anything made sense on those runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 My, my, my how short the memory of some is. The NAM did a damn fine job with the blizzard. Intentional negativity isn't the same as objectivity. every model did a good job on the blizzard. It was like throwing a softball to a steroid barry bonds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The one thing that is worth notice on the NAM is it brings sig precip in earlier than the globals. Is it on to something? I sure damn hope so but have zero confidence until the globals trend that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 <Insert post about the NAM outside of 48 hours> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 if we are going to see changes...its going to be today. By tomorrow, things are probably going to be locked in. its dark and damp here in the valley bro I actually agree. If we don't start seeing some wholesale movement today by 0z, we're done most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 <Insert post about the NAM outside of 48 hours> 6 fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The one thing that is worth notice on the NAM is it brings sig precip in earlier than the globals. Is it on to something? I sure damn hope so but have zero confidence until the globals trend that way. Noticed that too. In fact, earlier runs of the globals brought the precip in earlier, too as I recall, at least the ones that looked good for the front end. Then they backed away from that, unfortunately. The NAM may be on to something...or simply "on" something (my guess is the latter!)...but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 My, my, my how short the memory of some is. The NAM did a damn fine job with the blizzard. Intentional negativity isn't the same as objectivity. The NAM is not a good model. Even the folks who programmed models will tell you this. There's a difference between intentional negativity and being realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 <Insert post about the NAM outside of 48 hours wheelhouse> Fixed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 fixed yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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