jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/1lnSs3V.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 WPC Disco on their track reasoning from earlier. This was prior to the 00z models coming in tonight. The I-95 track is usually good for us. ANTECEDENT COLD AIR -- RECORDCOLD -- SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME AFFECT IN LIMITING A FAR WESTERNTRACK WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS COLD AIR IS USUALLY SLOW TO EXIT-- SLOWER THAN WHAT THE MODELS PREDICT. IN ADDITION, EVOLUTION OFNORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LOW IN CANADAALL PLAY A PART IN HOW MUCH TO DIG THE SHORTWAVE INTO THESOUTHEAST AND WHERE IT MAY CLOSE OFF. ENSEMBLES HAVE GONE FROMNEARLY UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT ON A CLOSE-IN COASTAL TRACK TO A SPLIT-- THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES MOSTLY INLAND AND THE GEFS/CANADIANENSEMBLES MOSTLY OFFSHORE. OPTED TO TAKE THE LOW BASICALLY ALONGI-95 FROM SC TO RICHMOND THEN PHILLY AND INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 EPS Control is almost a mirror image of the Op and the EPS means are 2-5 inches generally south to north across almost the entire Valley. North of 40 and Cumberland Gap west have the general 4-5 inch average that slowly tiers down to 3.5, 3, 2.5 etc. The 2 inch line is basically along the northern edge of the southernmost row of counties across nearly all of Tennessee. All in all a pretty healthy average for almost our entire region. The entire state has at least 1.5 average on the means. Northern Alabama and Mississippi have 1-1.5 average. So does North Georgia with their numbers rising as you head into NE Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Finally the general clusters of lows are central parts of the Gulf Coast states then up through central Georgia and along the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Morristown Disc. is very detailed and interesting. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... VERY TRICKY FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS ATTENTION TURNSTO THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM BEGINNING LATE SUNDAYNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS STILLHIGHLY UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING...THEVERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE AND DURATIONFOR THIS EVENT.MOST MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BEING ALLSNOW...FOLLOWED BY A WARM-UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY /PRESIDENT`SDAY/...CHANGING SNOW TO MIX OF SNOW/RAIN...FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE BACKTO ALL SNOW LATE IN THE EVENT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKERSURFACE AND 850 MB LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH /ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THEI-40 CORRIDOR/...WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MUCH EARLIER...JUSTAFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION AT THEONSET TO POTENTIALLY BEGIN AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVYSNOW...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/RAIN MIX DURINGTHE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW ONTHE BACK SIDE MONDAY NIGHT.THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SLIGHTLY LATER ON MONDAYMORNING...BEGINNING AS SNOW AND THEN POSSIBLY MIXING WITHRAIN...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORETRANSITIONING OVER ALL MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE850 MB LOW TRACKS INTO THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. THIS SOLUTIONWOULD PLACE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE EASTTENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS UNDERNEATH THE TROWELREGION...AND SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MONDAYNIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY MORNING. AN EXAMINATION THE VERYSTRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DIRECTLY OVER THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINSAT 06Z THURSDAY CONFIRMS THIS.GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES OUTLINED ABOVE...HAVE NOT GOTTEN TOO SPECIFICWITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OR AMOUNTS GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LOWCONFIDENCE FORECAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THATMOST/ALL OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE SNOW AND POTENTIALLY OTHERFORMS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING THE MONDAY AND MONDAYNIGHT TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONALLY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS REGARDINGTHE POSSIBILITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG THE EAST TENNESSEEAND NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTTENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...A MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCEEXISTS REGARDING SPECIFIC DETAILS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ANDPRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY /INCLUDING THEKNOXVILLE AND CHATTANOOGA METRO AREAS/...AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS WEEKEND...AND MONITOR THE LATESTFORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDINGTHIS STORM SYSTEM...ESPECAILLY IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS!IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ASAN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEEVALLEY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORESUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURE TO GRADUALLY REBOUND INTO THE 50S ANDPERHAPS WELL INTO THE 60S TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Finally the general clusters of lows are central parts of the Gulf Coast states then up through central Georgia and along the I-95 corridor.What model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 What model? He's talking about the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Does anyone know what the Euro Para from 0z looked like? It seems to have the best verification scores right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 He's talking about the EPS.Oh ok. Well I don't think the general low clusters are near I-95 on the eps at all, they are still I-85 and west that's why I was wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Does anyone know what the Euro Para from 0z looked like? It seems to have the best verification scores right now. 0z Euro para was a slightly beefier version of the op, particularly for mountains and southern plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Personally I'm very skeptical of the snow to rain to snow scenario. If the low track stays closer to the coast, I doubt we change back and forth. If we start as snow, we should remain snow. It's pretty difficult dynamically to get that changeover to rain to happen with the low track shown. Of course if the low drifts too far NW, that theory is out the window. It is possible that the daytime nature of the event will hamper accumulation, but I don't think it will actually change the p type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 0z EPS: Control is similar to op but has beefier totals for plateau and upper Cumberland. The mean was a tad light but covers the entire region in 2 to 4 south to north, eastern valley on the lighter side of that. The low clusters are in line with the WPC track although there are a few cutters in there that track up through TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Oh and nice work covering the late night runs folks, that was a pleasant read to wake up to! A couple of questions for John: 1) Do you ever sleep? 2) Did your dog ever catch that deer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Here's another look at that 0z GGEM: And it's ensemble mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Thanks Stove for the update on the para and the ensembles looks like a decent shot. Maybe it will work out for all of us. Side note: This little clipper tonight and tomorrow kinda snuck up on us huh? The 4K and 12k NAM has been consistent with it just like the vort last night. Point being, the GFS hasn't been too good even in the very short term. Maybe this system will also work out for us. I think the ensembles are definitely the way to go right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Oh and nice work covering the late night runs folks, that was a pleasant read to wake up to! A couple of questions for John: 1) Do you ever sleep? 2) Did your dog ever catch that deer? I've often wondered about question #1 myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I imagine each Fall John buys out the Red Bull supply from every store within a 50 mile radius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I didn't like the trends on the 6z GFS compared to the 0z. The low tracked more to the northwest and the surface was slightly warmer cutting down on totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 There seems to be some discrepancy between the GFS snow maps and the text data/meteograms. For example the 6z maps show 2-4 inches for TYS while text/grams show over 7 inches. Probably the marginal temps. Doesn't matter, onto 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Like every event seems to be in this area.....seems as if temps are going to be an issue. Again. But...we have a storm to track, and it's still a few days out. A lot can change. Staying optimisitc!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Like every event seems to be in this area.....seems as if temps are going to be an issue. Again. But...we have a storm to track, and it's still a few days out. A lot can change. Staying optimisitc!!!! Oh I'm very optimistic. It's going to be 15 degrees Saturday night, I'm hopeful the surface temps are favorable come storm time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Personally I'm very skeptical of the snow to rain to snow scenario. If the low track stays closer to the coast, I doubt we change back and forth. If we start as snow, we should remain snow. It's pretty difficult dynamically to get that changeover to rain to happen with the low track shown. Of course if the low drifts too far NW, that theory is out the window. It is possible that the daytime nature of the event will hamper accumulation, but I don't think it will actually change the p type. Me too, I believe you are right. We are talking about precip starting before daybreak and potentially putting down a good coating before daybreak once we have some snow on the ground it will be harder to switch back and forth too much, unless as you mention the low placement is further north. Also if it is stronger while in MS and AL then southerly flow would be stronger and could hurt for the southern valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Looks like 12z GFS is trending warmer than the 6z. Top image is the new run compared to the same timeframe of the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Looks like the lp is in Northern GA now and a little stronger on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12Z GFS is blow torching and tracking the low just barely below the southern TN border. Yucky run thus far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Starts out with a little snow, but mostly all rain for almost everyone on this latest run. Let's hope this isn't the trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Starts out with a little snow, but mostly all rain for almost everyone on this latest run. Let's hope this isn't the trend! Nashville NWS will be all over that run, that is what they are rooting for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Last night's runs are as good as we're ever likely to see. The GFS has handled this differently than the other models the entire time. So who knows if it's correct. Either way we've not got much direction to go but down after those 00z monsters. And I do sleep but only 3 or 4 hours a night. Also, the dog never catches the deer but chases them all winter at night. During summer he has a deal where they eat every melon I try to grow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 For what it is worth the Canadian only out to H78 has the low developing further south and west of the GFS for the same time frame. GFS wants the low to essentially come across the red river, where it appears the canadian has the low at hour 78 sitting on the SE corner of NM or extreme W Central TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Canadian crushes again. Lots of purples and pinks on the clown. Not going to be much different than it's past 6 or 8 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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