JayCee

Per WBIR yesterday, this supercell travelled over 300 miles and lasted over 6 hours. All this damage and destruction caused by one single storm that nearly traversed the whole state west to east. Further, it's amazing that this one storm was so long-lived in an environment that wasn't supercharged similar to events like 4/27/11. It has changed my attitude toward "marginal" events. It only takes one storm.

This is just so awful to look at. I woke up at 3 in the morning, and saw the warnings on the plateau then. I went back to bed, because I figured it was "radar indicated" and surely it wouldn't get bad further east while we were only under a "marginal" risk. I was shocked when I awoke to this news. As far as I know, this was mainly one supercell that wouldn't die. Even after the tornado dissipated, high winds and hail were reported as far east as Jefferson Co in east TN, caused by the same storm. My takeaway from this is you don't need an "outbreak" of tornadoes to have devastation over a wide area. One supercell thunderstorm can accomplish that on it's own when it travels this far and lives this long.

My family in southeast Kentucky had about 1.5" overnight, and I had enough to turn the ground white here after recording .19" in the last 24 hours. Considering meteorological winter ends today, I'll take it. In any event, it's a beautiful late winter day, and I'm spending it cleaning up all the tree debris after this winter, and I'm ready to burn it tomorrow before another round of heavy rain moves in next week.

Recorded .47 in the rain gauge. 90% of that fell as snow, so if temps had been colder, it would have been the biggest snow event since 2015 IMBY.

Ended up near an inch, but temps rose from 32 to 34 once it stopped, so just have a coating left on the ground. Snow came down fast and furious for a few hours, and if we had been colder, it would have been easy to score 3+. So, I suppose the NAM and HRRR/RAP were both right. We probably had 3 inches of snow fall like the NAM showed, but in the end, only had a light coating like the other short range models showed. I guess it's better than a cold rain. At least it was more enjoyable to watch.

Thanks Carvers. Still all snow, but nothing really sticking at the moment. In any event, it sure looks better than rain.

And just like that, it switches over to mostly snow. Coming down at a pretty good rate with large flakes. I guess that boundary mentioned earlier brings in some colder air aloft.

Big blobs of snow mixing in here now. Still rain involved, but snow is fighting it's way down!

Awesome. I can see some flakes mixing in again, currently. Heavier rates just moving in.

Had more snow this morning than we are currently. Seems to be stuck as liquid. Hope a switch occurs when heavier precip move in shortly.

Surely MRX will hoist some advisories for their side of the plateau. OHX has them right next door, and had people and schools prepared.

Good to know. That's those stronger returns heading in from the plateau.

Glad your getting flake action, John. Not much happening here now. Drizzle and sleet pellets falling. It looks like much stronger radar returns are heading toward the valley from the plateau, so let's see what happens when rates increase again. Hope the NAM isn't a drunk sailor telling tall tales.

Back to all rain at the moment. Seems to switch to snow when precipitation rates increase, so as was stated, this is rate induced. Any lull, and it goes back to liquid.

I live in a very unique area when it comes to those events, and I've tried to understand it, but when those occur the wind is usually almost completely calm at home. I can drive 10-15 minutes closer to the mountains, and the winds will increase exponentially. I guess if these mtn. winds are true "waves" like in water, my house must be located in the crest or ridge, and not in the trough at the bottom of the mountains. Not complaining! Anyway, I've always been fascinated with the dynamics of mtn. wave events. It's fun to drive around and observe the micro-climates when they do occur. While typing this, the precipitation here has almost completely switched to snow. Temp is still 34, so nothing is sticking. The NAM may be right that 3-4 inches may fall, but very little may stick in reality.

Thanks. Glad to be back in the neighborhood. I'm about 10 miles east of Sevierville, between Douglas Lake and the foothills.

34 showing in my car, and it's a definite mix of rain and snow hitting my windshield. It's seems to be trying very hard to completely switch to snow here, and I'm surprised to see it happening so early. Some very big, fat flakes mixing in, and they are easily visible even in the low light of early morning. Note: Most elevations in/near my area are 1050-1300'

Stepped out to warm the car, and noticed the rain sounded "loud". Sleet/rain mixture falling now. Stuck at 36, but glad to see some frozen stuff making it to the ground. Seems to be switching back and forth.

Time to join the working world this morning. Too bad this isn't a Saturday like our previous event. That was a good day. Good luck to everyone. Hope someone here gets a good surprise.

HRRR and RAP still not very friendly to anyone in the Great Valley. The new cage match is between them and the NAM which continues to show a switchover to moderate snow later this morning.

Light rain falling at 38.8 here in the foothills. My dewpoint remained near 35 overnight hugging the mountains, so I assume that's why rain can fall, while areas to my west (TYS), just started seeing it. Recent OBS at TYS shows 43/27. Temp dropped to 38.1. But with the dewpoint above freezing (34), I need some CAA to help out here.

I was feeling hopeful when I dropped to 39 by 8 p.m. here in the foothills, but since then, I've risen to 41. So, having experienced winter weather here since 2003, I know how fickle it can be in the east TN valley. I've got my fingers crossed, but I'm getting older, and I can't keep them that way forever. When I roll out of bed in the morning, I'm prepared to see rain falling at 35. It's all good. I'm used to it.

Thx GH. Been in KY for some time. Family there, and helping where I can. Back for now, and hoping for snow.

HRRR and RAP neither give the east TN valley a boost of confidence in the current situation. Here's hoping for the best, but I'm prepared for the worst.

Me and a buddy plan on riding down 411 from Sevierville that morning, and make a day of it. If rain is in the forecast, I don't mind taking a longer road trip, if needed.