John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The GFS was about 100 miles north of 00z and it was because it was slightly stronger with the lp as it tracks across the south of us, that allowed much more warm air to flood in, we want the low weaker and more south obviously. GFS is still on an island regarding timing and to some extent track. MRX discussed the differences between it and the other modeling suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z GGEM, marginal temps but we end up with this clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 UKIE shows a very favorable classic Miller A track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I find it interesting that that the Canadian dumps half a foot on east TN and then we get about an inch of rain. If the low stays south, I don't know if I see that happening so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The GFS was about 100 miles north of 00z and it was because it was slightly stronger with the lp as it tracks across the south of us, that allowed much more warm air to flood in, we want the low weaker and more south obviously. GFS is still on an island regarding timing and to some extent track. MRX discussed the differences between it and the other modeling suites. The 12z GFS also held back the low and allowed some separation with the initial overrunning event. UKIE is a great track, agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It's possible but usually not very easy to change to rain when you have heavy snow falling and heavy snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 MRX afternoon disco should be a fun read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z GGEM, marginal temps but we end up with this clown: So, anyone want to make any guesses as to why the american model is always so far off from all the others and which one is most likely to resemble reality in this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 MRX afternoon disco should be a fun read. They will side with the GFS I would be willing to bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The 06z Para GFS was a similar track to the UKIE. Much further south/Miller A vs the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Looks like the 12zGEFS is a little south of the op too, if I'm reading it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The ensemble mean at 108 is about 100 miles southeast of the op and 8 millibars weaker. 1012 vs 1004 on the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Wow, that was a huge shift south by the ukie, it had been the farthest NW of all. Wonder what it's clown map looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 That is really the key to this entire event, we need it to stay weak until it begins to round the bend in the Carolinas. At that point I would like it to explode in a serious way but not until we are in the NW quadrant of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Thanks John, 100 miles SE makes a big difference in this situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I know these are two different systems and totally different setups but with the last big storm some of models wanted to push the low to far to the northwest when in reality the low ended up being south when the actual event happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 From what I can see, 4 individual members were as far northwest as the OP or more NW, with one in central Missouri. The largest cluster was South/Southeast of the OP including 4 along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Mobile. The cluster then rounds the corner in the midlands of South Carolina and runs up between 85 and 95 in Central NC dropping from 1012 to 1006 mb during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yesterday's weaker models have so far shifted towards the more amped, while the more amped have went towards the weaker solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Through hour 60 the Euro is almost a mirror image of the 00z 72 hour panel. Through 72 still almost a mirror image of 00z at 84 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Heavy snow from Nashville to Dyersburg by hour 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Not spreading east as quickly as last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Not spreading east as quickly as last night. looks like heaviest still wants to set up in western KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Not a very good run at all. Gets down 2-4 inches on the front end north of 40 then runs the low over East Tennessee and goes back to an Ohio River storm. WPC mentioned that solutions West of the Apps didn't make much sense during their discussion. Guess we'll see soon. I knew last nights runs were going to be as good as it could possibly get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Not a very good run at all. Gets down 2-4 inches on the front end north of 40 then runs the low over East Tennessee and goes back to an Ohio River storm. So, it's actually completely different from the UKMET? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro is a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro is a cutter See, this goes back to my question about the GFS. How can there be so many varied solutions? Has any sampling been done yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The Euro runs from N Louisiana straight over the spine of the Apps into Western NC with the LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro is a cutter It doesn't cut from what I can tell, it simply goes right over the Smokies. At 120 the low is at 996 right in the middle of North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Heck. I'm not even sure what it does. This is the map at 120 from Tropical. The map from wxbell shows it sitting on top of Snowshoe Mountain in West Virginia at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The track right over the smokies was mentioned in the storm back in January as an odd track if I remember correctly. It will be interesting to see the EPS here in a little while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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