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Coastal Storm Brush/IVT? Obs thread


dmillz25

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Snowing at a pretty good clip in the Port Jefferson area in the last hour or so...the band to my west has diminished somewhat; but a new band seems to have coalesced over the central portion of the Sound and is bringing this area the best snows of the day...very cold here (26.2 F)...so ratios should exceed 10:1. 

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17z RAP keeps the Long Island in snow till well after sunset...which is what you would expect with so much residual mid level moisture lingering...no distinct dry air mass poised to move in and sort of clear things out noticeably.

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000

FXUS61 KOKX 081806

AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

106 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

AN INTENSE STORM EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND

PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN

SPIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC AIR

MASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LOOKS LIKE ANYWHERE WEST OF THE HUDSON...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE

CITY...WILL NOT SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL TODAY...SO

HAVE DROPPED ADVISORIES HERE ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO DOWNGRADED

WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES OVER WESTERN SUFFOLK AND NEW HAVEN

COUNTIES. WITH THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING...HAVE

DECIDED TO LEAVE UP WARNINGS FOR EASTERN SUFFOLK AND SE CT.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR EASTERN ZONES. COLD

DRY AIR IS BEING PULLED DOWN FROM THE CT VALLEY. WINDS COULD STILL

GUST CLOSE TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...CREATING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS

WHERE THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...BUT MORE LIKELY

NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ANY STEADIER SNOW REMAINING SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF

THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND BRING LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO

TUE NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND W FROM THIS OFFSHORE

LOW...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW JUST

TO ITS NORTH. HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP

ATTM...AND BEARS WATCHING ESPECIALLY FOR NYC METRO AND LONG

ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE

PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PLUS LOW

LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC AT TIMES WILL PRODUCE

PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 500FT

THROUGH THE PERIOD SO ALL SNOW IS FORECAST. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS

WILL BE NEEDED FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH SUPERBLEND NUMBERS...SO

DROPPED THEM DOWN A DEGREE FOR NOW. FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...

MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE

IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ON WED.

A FIRST WAVE OF COLDER AIR COMES IN ON THU. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL

LAPSE RATES AGAIN SO ANY MOISTURE IN THE AREA SHOULD BE SQUEEZED

OUT WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW. SNOW CHANCES LESSEN ON FRI AT THIS TIME

WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT

LOOKS TO BE FRI NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID WEEKEND.

PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SAT...THEN DRY ON SUN WITH A

1040S HI BUILDING IN FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDS ON TAP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT

24-30 HOURS AS LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO

DEPART AND LOW PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE

EAST.

BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST. SNOW SHOULD BE

OVER ACROSS KNYC TERMINALS AND TERMINALS WEST OF THE NY/CT BORDER

DOWN THROUGH THE QUEENS/NASSAU BORDER BY 20Z. SNOW SHOULD STAY OUT

OF KSWF/KEWR...AND ANY SNOW OVER KTEB/KHPN SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN

AS WELL.

EAST OF THAT LINE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON

HOURS...BUT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTS...SNOW SHOULD LIGHTEN UP.

LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE LATE

AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER...SEVERAL WAVES

OF SNOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THOUGH IT WILL NOT SNOW ALL OF THE TIME...PROLONGED SUB-VFR CONDS

WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TIME.

NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT

LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS

CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDS DOWN BY 20Z. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR

TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDS DOWN BY 20Z. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR

TIMING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR ANY CHANGES TO FLIGHT

CATEGORIES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDS DOWN BY 20Z. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR

TIMING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDS DOWN BY 20Z. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR

TIMING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDS IN SNOW LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE

AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN SNOW POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT CONDS REMAIN

SUB-VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN

PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT

POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...BUT OCNL LIGHT SNOW

SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.

EXPECT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WITH GALE FORCE

WINDS ON THE OCEAN...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND EASTERN LONG

ISLAND BAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON NY HARBOR...WESTERN

LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN OCEAN

WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

ALSO...A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH SHORE

BAYS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALES.

WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS LOW PRES DEPARTS.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN HIGH...AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR

THE SEAS TO SETTLE...AT LEAST BACK TO SUB-SCA LEVELS.

HEADLINES FOR THE GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES

REMAIN UNCHANGED.

SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TUE-SAT. PERIODS OF SCA LEVEL WINDS

LIKELY IN THE TUE-SAT PERIOD ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW TODAY...SO NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS

ANTICIPATED. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH AT

LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY

LIGHT AT THIS TIME AND ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO

WEDNESDAY DUE TO NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING

THE REGION.

AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE BROUGHT 2 TO 3 FT OR SURGE TO THE REGION

THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS ALONG

THE VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAY AREAS OF QUEENS AND BROOKLYN AND

WESTERN LI. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE IMPACTS ACROSS VULNERABLE

LOCALES ALONG WESTERN LI SOUND THROUGH 11AM...OTHERWISE JUST

MINOR IMPACTS FOR SOUND ADJACENT LOCALES OF SW CT...COASTAL

WESTCHESTER...AND WESTERN LI LOCALES.

LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. WITH LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES

TONIGHT AND LIGHTENING WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE A BIT

LOWER...WITH MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING FLOODING FOR THE

SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/NY AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF

LONG ISLAND ADJACENT TO WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WINDS SHOULD VEER

MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE

SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND MULTI-TIDAL

CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL MINOR

FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE

FLOODING IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAY AREAS TUESDAY. MINOR TO POSSIBLY

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY AM HIGH

TIDE CYCLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AREAS.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL PRESENT A MODERATE TO HIGH THREAT

FOR AREAS OF DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN

BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND.

THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS

COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ007-

008-011-012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-

006-009-010.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

CTZ009-010.

NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ079-

081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068-

070-071-073-078-080-176>179.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

NYZ176.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-

179.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR

NYZ075-080-178-179.

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-

073-078-177.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST

TUESDAY FOR NYZ078-177.

NJ...NONE.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-

338-345.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-350-

353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN

NEAR TERM...JC/GOODMAN

SHORT TERM...GOODMAN

LONG TERM...JMC

AVIATION...MET

MARINE...BC/JMC

HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV

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The 17z HRRR puts down another 4 - 6 inches over the eastern 2/5ths of Long Island...now bear in mind, this includes what fell from noon today forward...so subtract whatever fell in the last 116 minutes.

post-747-0-18849400-1454957757_thumb.gif

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000

NOUS41 KOKX 081838

PNSOKX

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-090638-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

138 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24

HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION

IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN

SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE

ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...

NORWALK 2.5 1243 PM 2/08 SOCIAL MEDIA

NEW CANAAN 2.5 100 PM 2/08 CT DOT

DANBURY 1.7 1200 PM 2/08 PUBLIC

BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 1.0 100 PM 2/08 COOP

DARIEN 1.0 100 PM 2/08 CT DOT

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...

WESTBROOK 3.1 1234 PM 2/08 SOCIAL MEDIA

HADDAM 2.8 100 PM 2/08 CT DOT

OLD SAYBROOK 2.8 100 PM 2/08 CT DOT

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...

BRANFORD 1.8 105 PM 2/08 SOCIAL MEDIA

NEW HAVEN 1.0 1247 PM 2/08 TRAINED SPOTTER

SOUTHBURY 1.0 100 PM 2/08 CT DOT

WATERBURY 1.0 100 PM 2/08 CT DOT

1 ESE NORTH HAVEN 0.9 1114 AM 2/08 SOCIAL MEDIA

NORTH HAVEN 0.9 1115 AM 2/08 SOCIAL MEDIA

MERIDEN 0.5 100 PM 2/08 CT DOT

MILFORD 0.2 100 PM 2/08 CT DOT

BEACON FALLS 0.2 100 PM 2/08 CT DOT

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...

STONINGTON 4.0 1200 PM 2/08 TRAINED SPOTTER

NORWICH 3.0 100 PM 2/08 CT DOT

COLCHESTER 3.0 1100 AM 2/08 CT DOT

NEW LONDON 2.8 1129 AM 2/08 TRAINED SPOTTER

GROTON 2.8 100 PM 2/08 CT DOT

LEDYARD CENTER 2.0 1100 AM 2/08 PUBLIC

NEW JERSEY

...ESSEX COUNTY...

NEWARK AIRPORT T 100 PM 2/08 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

NEW YORK

...KINGS COUNTY...

WILLIAMSBURG 0.7 1100 AM 2/08 PUBLIC

...NASSAU COUNTY...

LEVITTOWN 2.6 1210 PM 2/08 PUBLIC

NORTH BELLMORE 2.3 1109 AM 2/08 SOCIAL MEDIA

GLEN COVE 2.0 1145 AM 2/08 PUBLIC

PLAINVIEW 2.0 1130 AM 2/08 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY...

CENTRAL PARK T 100 PM 2/08 PARK CONSERVANCY

...QUEENS COUNTY...

BAYSIDE 2.0 100 PM 2/08 LAW ENFORCEMENT

LITTLE NECK 2.0 1145 AM 2/08 PUBLIC

NYC/JFK AIRPORT 1.6 100 PM 2/08 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

NYC/LA GUARDIA 0.9 100 PM 2/08 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

ORIENT POINT 5.5 130 PM 2/08 TRAINED SPOTTER

MATTITUCK 4.5 1115 AM 2/08 TRAINED SPOTTER

JAMESPORT 4.1 1200 PM 2/08 PUBLIC

BABYLON 3.4 1240 PM 2/08 SOCIAL MEDIA

UPTON 3.4 100 PM 2/08 NWS OFFICE

DIX HILLS 3.3 1240 PM 2/08 SOCIAL MEDIA

SELDEN 3.0 1235 PM 2/08 SOCIAL MEDIA

SOUTH HUNTINGTON 3.0 1230 PM 2/08 TRAINED SPOTTER

MILLER PLACE 2.6 1234 PM 2/08 SOCIAL MEDIA

HAUPPAUGE 2.0 1230 PM 2/08 TRAINED SPOTTER

PATCHOGUE 1.8 1250 PM 2/08 NWS EMPLOYEE

SOUND BEACH 1.8 1245 PM 2/08 PUBLIC

CENTEREACH 1.5 945 AM 2/08 NWS EMPLOYEE

ISLIP AIRPORT 1.5 100 PM 2/08 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

BAY SHORE 1.1 1250 PM 2/08 NWS EMPLOYEE

RIVERHEAD 1.0 800 AM 2/08 NWS EMPLOYEE

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...

WHITE PLAINS 2.0 1245 PM 2/08 TRAINED SPOTTER

CROTON FALLS 1.2 1230 PM 2/08 TRAINED SPOTTER

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Roughly 3 inches new snow Port Jefferson @ 2 PM...good moderate snow for more than an hour now...

 

Has snowed beautifully since my last dispatch; picked up another inch in just 50 minutes; 4 inches new as of 2:50 PM.

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You know that is one cold air mass sitting up over Eastern New England when it is 21 F at Providence in the middle of the afternoon...just 24.6 F in Port Jeff at 3:20 PM with snows continuing to pour down over the area...

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Central Park's trace might be legitimate. Jeff (Hooralph) who posts from the Upper West side reported "nada." The Columbus Circle web cam also didn't show any coatings in the distance earlier. Perhaps there might have been a small accumulation on a snow board, but from the observations, I'm not sure Central Park is off.

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