BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 If that stalls for a couple more hours, we will be seeing some insane totals for the Buffalo northtowns. That band is 2-3"+ an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If that stalls for a couple more hours, we will be seeing some insane totals for the Buffalo northtowns. That band is 2-3"+ an hour. Based on upstream radar it should move southward slowly within the next hour or so, it looks like we are going to pick up anywhere from 1-4" with the current band and another 2-3"+ with the arctic + ontario combo but that won't get here till about 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 BUF southwards is going to get rocked once those two bands merge together within the next hour or so, we could see some 3"+/hr rates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro brings 850 0c to just east of Buf. Period of rain or mix Batavia east. It looks like that mix reaches all the way to the thruway corridor, south shore stay all snow though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 ...A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN NIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON... AT 250 PM EST...A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING SNOW FALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE WAS LOCATED FROM GRAND ISLAND TO LOCKPORT TO MEDINA. EXPECT SNOW COVERED ROADS AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY WITHIN THIS BAND OF SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW BAND WILL MOVE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GRAND ISLAND...NORTH TONAWANDA...LOCKPORT...TONAWANDA...MEDINA...ALBION AND PENDLETON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Wpc currently going with the "middle" soulution, similar to the ukie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 yea this thing will definitely sweep through, I'd be lucky if i pick up more than 2" from this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 yea this thing will definitely sweep through, I'd be lucky if i pick up more than 2" from this.. I don't know, I've seen these fronts get hung up for a bit on the lake breeze before passing through. A slow south crawl for a few hours would be nice. Either way, enjoy it while it passes - pretty intense snow in that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 yea this thing will definitely sweep through, I'd be lucky if i pick up more than 2" from this..an inch over downtown, that band got mighty thin right over downtown BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I don't know, I've seen these fronts get hung up for a bit on the lake breeze before passing through. A slow south crawl for a few hours would be nice. Either way, enjoy it while it passes - pretty intense snow in that band. Indeed it would but i highly doubt it, nonetheless I'm enjoying this 30 min heavy snow burst.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Picked up 1.6" in 15 mins, snow is gone lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gfs gives some credence to the ggem..way east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gfs is all over the place. It's so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gfs gives some credence to the ggem..way east..makes ya wonder about the Euro, it really hasn't preformed all that well this year at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NWS BUF was calling for 9-17" for Buffalo and 12-20" for Watertown as of 6am this morning, definitely a bust for sure... 000NOUS41 KBUF 122106PNSBUFNYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-130906-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY406 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTSSNOWFALL OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...ERIE COUNTY...2 S KENMORE 5.5 200 PM 2/12 PUBLICCLARENCE 4.5 1220 PM 2/12 NWS EMPLOYEE5 WNW CLARENCE CENTE 4.4 230 PM 2/12 COCORAHS1 NNW WILLIAMSVILLE 4.0 1200 PM 2/12 PUBLIC1 NW WILLIAMSVILLE 3.8 100 PM 2/12 TRAINED SPOTTER...JEFFERSON COUNTY...WATERTOWN 6.7 1042 AM 2/12 TRAINED SPOTTER...NIAGARA COUNTY...SANBORN 6.5 404 PM 2/12 TRAINED SPOTTER3 WNW RAPIDS 5.5 300 PM 2/12 TRAINED SPOTTER2 SSE NORTH TONAWAND 2.3 207 PM 2/12 TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NWS BUF was calling for 9-17" for Buffalo and 12-20" for Watertown as of 6am this morning, definitely a bust for sure...they have busted high for just about every event this year, not just in BUF but in their entire forecast area. I know it's lake effect and it's a very mesoscale event but it seems they are always way over on their maps by a long shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 And just like that, the models start to dump the Tuesday storm. If it does happen, big coup for Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 they have busted high for just about every event this year, not just in BUF but in their entire forecast area. I know it's lake effect and it's a very mesoscale event but it seems they are always way over on their maps by a long shot... Whoever draws their maps is a hopeful snow junky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Decent snow rate here in western Monroe, visibility less than 1/4 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Posting this for reference 2 days from now. Wonder if we could get some tea kettle lake effect Saturday night into Sunday. Winds are relatively light and there's going to be about 30C Delta T's. Mostly posting this now to bring it up afterwards and see how I did. BUF smartly reduced accumulations here for tonight, but still expecting 4-8" total. We'll see, but these lake bands mean business right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NWS BUF was calling for 9-17" for Buffalo and 12-20" for Watertown as of 6am this morning, definitely a bust for sure... To be fair, that Watertown map was from 11AM and they have that entire band to work through. Don't count them out yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Buf reported rare 0sm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 they have busted high for just about every event this year, not just in BUF but in their entire forecast area. I know it's lake effect and it's a very mesoscale event but it seems they are always way over on their maps by a long shot... The thing that killed BUF's chances of getting those heavy accumulation was the band dying too early in the morning, it was projected to intensify and stall near the city for couple of hours before it headed northward after 1pm instead it fizzled out after that initial burst of heavy snow.. funny thing is that HRRRX showed that trend last night but the high res WRF missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Buf reported rare 0sm KBUF 122200Z 25019G28KT 0SM R23/0800V4000FT +SN BLSN VV005 M07/M09 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 23028/2156 P0000 T10671089 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 they have busted high for just about every event this year, not just in BUF but in their entire forecast area. I know it's lake effect and it's a very mesoscale event but it seems they are always way over on their maps by a long shot... Which events? if you go by the lake snow forecast totals instead of the maps they didn't even bust today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Getting hammered down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Which events? if you go by the lake snow forecast totals instead of the maps they didn't even bust today. I checked it at 6am and it said 9-17" total for buffalo, a bust for sure.. final total is 4.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Which events? if you go by the lake snow forecast totals instead of the maps they didn't even bust today.they had 9-17" in the Warning text this morning... That's a bust. Even so I was talking about their maps. Their maps have busted on several events this year all across their CWA. Don't remember the specific events off hand but I can find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 I checked it at 6am and it said 9-17" total for buffalo, a bust for sure.. final total is 4.9". North of buffalo has to have some 10-15" totals when that band stalled. We're Ganna do good here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I checked it at 6am and it said 9-17" total for buffalo, a bust for sure.. final total is 4.9". I think that brings KBUF within 13 inches of the all time low. We may finish bottom five, but we probably at least won't have the least snowiest winter. Still, really bad luck this season for Buffalo - no event has worked out quite right for most of the city out to the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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