ayuud11 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z gfs please Let the NW trend commence.. :whistle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Walking a very fine line .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFT THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH OR TWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THE ORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY WILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS IT RETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTAL NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. Maybe an hour or two but still looks good for a 12" event at least for the metro area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z GFS brings mix and rain to CNY but there's a ton of moisture on the backside after the cold air comes back in. 12-20" for most. The total QPF amounts seem ridiculously high though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yea, we get a nice front end thump, mix and then back to snow .. 850's crashing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 At this point the euro is the only model that goes west of the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 At this point the euro is the only model that goes west of the area.. Always use ensembles instead of op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Damm that BTV WRF goes to town tomorrow morning, it drops a nice 0.6" in matter of hours between 6am-10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 euro control runs through NE pa and then just west of the hudson valley..The mean is similar but the indv members are all over the place like u would expect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I just don't see the NWS map verifying... If I was a betting man I would put my money on amounts to more mirror this... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 euro control runs through NE pa and then just west of the hudson valley..The mean is similar but the indv members are all over the place like u would expect.. The gefs have most members well northwest and rain into buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This arctic front passage and lake effect setup looks similar to January 10....or 11th? (not 100 percent sure). I was watching on radar from a beach in st Lucia so I can't quite remember how it ended up but It looked potent and full of thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES. * TIMING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND UP TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Finished lake event with 5.5" of snow in far no. Onondaga county...pretty horrific bust given the forecasted totals of 12-18" by KBGM and (by extension) 18-24" out of KBUF...a solid Advisory event but nothing more, other than the narrow swath on So./Cent Oswego county. Just back from skiing south of Syracuse...although radar not reflecting it well, it's snowing pretty good in Syracuse itself. Fine flakes that probably don't accumulate well but the interstate is a mess and visibility is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 New lake snow advisory for roc. Probably will get more in Monroe County than previous set up. Hoping anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Can't post the GIF from my phone. But noticed a very abrupt end to the lake streamers near Cleveland on the NW flow in the last hour. Looks like activity building on a more SW flow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Can't post the GIF from my phone. But noticed a very abrupt end to the lake streamers near Cleveland on the NW flow in the last hour. Looks like activity building on a more SW flow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Not what WNY'ers want to see/hear, but 00z GFS crushes CNY...but leaves ROC westward pretty high and dry...HV runner.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Within 120 always move a bit northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Not what WNY'ers want to see/hear, but 00z GFS crushes CNY...but leaves ROC westward pretty high and dry...HV runner.... I like where I'm at based on GEFS and Euro. These always trend NW last minute just like what we saw with the blizzard in DC a few weeks ago. Be interesting to see what model suite wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think the Canadian hits us good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think the Canadian hits us good. Its East, will see what GEFS and Euro say. Not a ton of moisture with the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If euro holds tonight with Western track I will feel good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If euro holds tonight with Western track I will feel good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 As already pointed out the cold air precip with this system is just so thin. The possibility of a bust is higher than any other system I've seen in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Good night, it's going to be a very busy day here in BUF!! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY956 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016NYZ010-011-121100-/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.160212T0900Z-160213T0300Z//O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0001.160213T0900Z-160214T1600Z/NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA956 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PMEST FRIDAY......WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHTTHROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.* TIMING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT...4 TO 8 INCHES FRIDAY...AND 4 TO 7 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 9 TO 17 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.* TEMPERATURES...LOWS ZERO TO 5 BELOW FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE SATURDAY. LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This arctic front passage and lake effect setup looks similar to January 10....or 11th? (not 100 percent sure). I was watching on radar from a beach in st Lucia so I can't quite remember how it ended up but It looked potent and full of thundersnow. That was the 12th.. KBUF 121726Z 21024G34KT 2SM -TSSN FEW015 BKN026CB OVC033 M01/M06 A2948 RMK AO2 PK WND 21034/1726 TSB26 OCNL LTGICCG VC SW TS VC SW MOV E P0000 T10061056 KBUF 121728Z 21026G34KT 1/4SM R23/2600VP6000FT +TSSN BKN013 BKN026CB OVC033 M01/M06 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 21034/1726 TSB26 OCNL LTGICCG VC SW TS VC SW MOV E P0000 T10111056 KBUF 121734Z COR 25036G56KT 1/8SM R23/0600VP6000FT +TSSN BLSN OVC008CB M02/M04 A2950 RMK AO2 PK WND 25056/1734 TWR VIS 1/4 TSB26 OCNL LTGICCG NE-OHD-SW TS NE-OHD-SW MOV E P0000 T10221044 KBUF 121742Z 24018G30KT 1/8SM R23/0700V3000FT +TSSN BLSN OVC004CB M02/M04 A2950 RMK AO2 TSB26 PK WND 25056/1734 OCNL LTGICCG NE-OHD-SW TS NE-OHD-SW MOV E P0000 T10221039 ...ERIE COUNTY... TONAWANDA 3.0 1235 PM 1/12 3 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I love that 18-24" strip over BUF!! Looks like the latest NWS NDFD (digital gridded forecast) is only up around 9-16" for western New York, 9-12" south of Lake Ontario, 9-19" east of Lake Ontario, 6-10" near and in Ashtabula County OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 00z models are interesting so far. GFS was fantastic, UKMET looked really good, and the CMC had a perfect track but the heavy precip had a N/S orientation and mostly stayed east of CNY. I doubt there's going to be any clarity with this system until Sunday night at the earliest. At least they're all on board with the general evolution of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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