BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Ayuud GFS brings the SW wind Friday as well. All models are on board. Thinking LES Warning for all of Erie with totals of more than a foot in hardest hit areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro would cause a lot of flooding, no thanks lolSoundings cold enough for snow, I think. The blue lines on my post are 540 mb not 0C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Too bad N. Monroe county shoreline dips south...we'd be getting clipped as well.Local mets all suggest band moves south. Irondequoit 2.5" so far. I'm not sure I see much southern mvmt on rapid refresh models until 2-3 am. I like Saturday-Sunday for us Tim! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 GFS is way east, that's why don't bother with synoptic until 3-5 day lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Ayuud GFS brings the SW wind Friday as well. All models are on board. Thinking LES Warning for all of Erie with totals of more than a foot in hardest hit areas. That's what i was thinking also, the band starts to intensify late Thursday night near the southtowns and remains there till early Friday before it slowly shifts towards the city out to the airport and remains there till the arctic front drops south.. it looks good for a nice quick dump of heavy snow anywhere in between from Eden out to the city. Local mets all suggest band moves south. Irondequoit 2.5" so far. I'm not sure I see much southern mvmt on rapid refresh models until 2-3 am. I like Saturday-Sunday for us Tim! You should look at the latest WRF, it has an intense band drop south toward downtown ROC between 7pm-10pm before it lifts it up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Soundings cold enough for snow, I think. The blue lines on my post are 540 mb not 0C Soundings cold enough for snow, I think. The blue lines on my post are 540 mb not 0C Check temps at 850 and the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 They are courtesy of weather bell.. Courtesy is a strong word dont u think? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Think roc does well tonight. Fri eve into sat too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The risk is rain or a late blooming mostly non event. The op gfs loves to be too far se or unphased in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Ha-ha , probably wrong choice of words..They have great maps though and for 20 a month (180 year) its not terrible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Ha-ha , probably wrong choice of words..They have great maps though and for 20 a month (180 year) its not terrible.. Yeah i get it through my work. Its nice. I personally get a visceral, gross reaction eveytime i open up the website and see jbs and maue's faces..but what can u do. However, id be careful with posting the images. Its against wxbells and americanwx's policies and theoretically this board could get in troubl3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 U can post any map not named the euro or its ensembles, just not a lot lol Note: Any maps, images or charts from ECMWF (License)may never be posted or re-distributed (except for WMO-Essential). All other maps, images and charts from other models may be shared in moderation under the following conditions: The images may not be used for any commercial (revenue generating) purpose including, but not limited to, ad-supported websites or private consulting. Any images must be attributed to WeatherBell Analytics. If confused, ask Ryan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 U can post any map not named the euro or its ensembles, just not a lot lol Hmm sounds like youre in the clear. Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Over/under 60" in the dacks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 The risk is rain or a late blooming mostly non event. The op gfs loves to be too far se or unphased in the medium range. I think we get hit with a synoptic event some time this month. This set-up is favorable for cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I hope this band drops a little south soon, being fringed.. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=TYX-N0Q-1-12# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 I hope this band drops a little south soon, being fringed.. I'm jelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 I wonder if portions of Northern Niagara county get the highest totals out of WNY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Had 4" overnight and today. Band is getting stronger over my area now, hope to pick up another 2". Nothing compared to other spots but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Took a quick look at the gfs and it had a west wind between 21z and 0z..Makes sense looking at radar..Soon winds should turn out of the wnw/nw for the next 24-36 hours before turning SW and then back NW after the front.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I think we get hit with a synoptic event some time this month. This set-up is favorable for cutting. We were talking before about the nao. Bufs best synotic event occurred with a very deep central plains trough and a negative nao so it didnt cut. Also, to get your classic 4 to 8/6 to 12 miller bs in buf...you want a clipper to slow down and pass south of u...when does that happen? Neg nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Took a quick look at the gfs and it had a west wind between 21z and 0z..Makes sense looking at radar..Soon winds should turn out of the wnw/nw for the next 24-36 hours before turning SW and then back NW after the front.. Yeah looks right but lots of sheer with the changing winds and troughs. I'll post bufkit profiles when I get back from gym. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 We were talking before about the nao. Bufs best synotic event occurred with a very deep central plains trough and a negative nao so it didnt cut. Also, to get your classic 4 to 8/6 to 12 miller bs in buf...you want a clipper to slow down and pass south of u...when does that happen? Neg nao. True, when was the last negative nao lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 This is a fun band. Two other met students reported 3"/hr in the actual town. I'm on the lakeshore which has less but about a mile inland there's more. Really heavy snow with the occasional lull, but several inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Took a quick look at the gfs and it had a west wind between 21z and 0z..Makes sense looking at radar..Soon winds should turn out of the wnw/nw for the next 24-36 hours before turning SW and then back NW after the front.. I wouldn't look at the GFS for wind trajectory as the globals have much less resolution for LES. The Hi Res NAM, WRF, or Rgem is much more suitable, but your right either way. Band is steady state, till the wind shift occurs, which is indicative of the band drifting South and is taking on a more WNW look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Fresh off the presses for Metro Buffalo! Lake Effect Snow Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 758 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 NYZ010-011-110900- /O.EXB.KBUF.LE.A.0007.160212T0900Z-160213T0000Z/ NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA 758 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES. * TIMING...FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE WATCH IS MEDIUM. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY A BAND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Fresh off the presses for Metro Buffalo! Lake Effect Snow Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 758 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 NYZ010-011-110900- /O.EXB.KBUF.LE.A.0007.160212T0900Z-160213T0000Z/ NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA 758 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES. * TIMING...FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE WATCH IS MEDIUM. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY A BAND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. Ayuud GFS brings the SW wind Friday as well. All models are on board. Thinking LES Warning for all of Erie with totals of more than a foot in hardest hit areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Top Analog for Friday is Dec. 31st 1998. It brought 1-2 feet across the southtowns. A max of 28" in Hamburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 And 3 feet at Fulton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 At least we have Wxrisk on our side for the synoptic system next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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