BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 This is a fun band. Two other met students reported 3"/hr in the actual town. I'm on the lakeshore which has less but about a mile inland there's more. Really heavy snow with the occasional lull, but several inches on the ground. Yeah that band is cranking. I bet some spots are well over a foot between Fulton and Oswego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 All but far NW Monroe county is gonna have a tough time getting close to warning amounts. Band refusing to settle south. Snow drought for Kroc continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Fresh off the presses for Metro Buffalo! Lake Effect Snow Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 758 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 Nice to see some color on the map for northern Erie County. I was getting tired of being an island of white surrounded by all those pretty blues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yeah that band is cranking. I bet some spots are well over a foot between Fulton and Oswego. Redfield/Osceola area cashing in big time I bet. Extra lift on the southern Tug = smackdown. http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Redfield/Osceola area cashing in big time I bet. Extra lift on the southern Tug = smackdown. http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm That link does not work for some reason. "Page cannot be found" Oswego has been getting destroyed for hours. If it stalls for a decent period of time we will be talking feet of snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Nice to see some color on the map for northern Erie County. I was getting tired of being an island of white surrounded by all those pretty blues. This happens far to much. I couldn't take it and it's why I moved south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 All but far NW Monroe county is gonna have a tough time getting close to warning amounts. Band refusing to settle south. Snow drought for Kroc continues Yup...that snow totals map that BUF puts out is so not accurate...18-24 for N. Monroe? Really? The same thing will happen the last time they put a LES Warning out...very little until that arctic front comes through...then no official warning and 8" of tea kettle...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'm in the 18-24' lol and received 2.5" today, lol. Whoever said these maps are accurate needs to lay off the alcohol till after 9am, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The band is starting to, slowly settle South, with the wind shift but once that happens, band weakens considerably and becomes fractured throughout so where these totals are coming form is beyond me, I've lived here 13yrs, so I'd say experience is a bit on my side, as far as event recognition, but I can definitely be wrong and probably will be, lol!. Hope all get buried but these LES forecasts, I take with a beach full of sand!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yup...that snow totals map that BUF puts out is so not accurate...18-24 for N. Monroe? Really? The same thing will happen the last time they put a LES Warning out...very little until that arctic front comes through...then no official warning and 8" of tea kettle...lol I'll say it until I'm blue. South shore just can't be fcst. That 12" that fell in far northern Orleans wasn't fcst until it was half over. Now with 12-18 in north monroe with little support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Starting to settle Southward so lets see what she does and how far she gets, K! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Lets also watch what happens to the band after it settles South, beyond Oswego, to see if she stays intact, or does she become disrupted from the wind shift and has to redevelop on a different trajectory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Those totals are through early Friday AM. A bit premature to be calling a blown forecast? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hastings with the jackpot so far in Oswego Cty with 16" as of 10PM and with the band settling back over them for the remainder of the night I can see them coming in with 2.5ft when all is said and done! Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Those totals are through early Friday AM. A bit premature to be calling a blown forecast? True. Just seems very heavy handed for Monroe county. Can't even recall a les storm on a wnw wind that gave us totals like that. It would be outside of parameters. I like Saturday-Sunday with light NNW wind field. Dry air be damned. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Those totals are through early Friday AM. A bit premature to be calling a blown forecast? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk For my area its blown, I'm not talking about KBUF, if your comment was towards me but I don't think it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yeah that band is cranking. I bet some spots are well over a foot between Fulton and Oswego. I think we're pretty close to 6-8" on campus. Snow has ended for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Still stuck at 7" here, snow just started back up..Hi rez canadian continues to crush the area overnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Look out Fulton as you'll be under the gun for quite a while before it sweeps through and settles down through the Syracuse area and points South for the remainder of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Look out Fulton as you'll be under the gun for quite a while before it sweeps through and settles down through the Syracuse area and points South for the remainder of this event. No so fast with the "sweeps" comment....with a Geo Bay connection, and a gentle shift in the mean wind through the profile, there very well may remain an intact band into or JUST to the north of the SYR area for a period of 5-10 hours....this is NOT a case where the flow veers rapidly nor sharply.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I just drove to Potsdam and back thru that lake Ontario band...twice...picking up niece at Clarkson...it was fun! BTW about 5-6" on ground in Potsdam and radar shows bupkis going on up there. Enjoy the snow up in Oswego county! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Tomorrow is a sneaky day. Models don't like to pick up on NW flow well, and the RGEM (which has done very well) has a pretty good swath of 0.2-0.4" of QPF. There will be a shallow DGZ but it's not all that bad of a setup with a potential for a Georgian Bay connection. Don't underestimate Friday either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I had to do a double take, that KBUF map is way overdone for eastern Lake Ontario area...except for maybe a narrow swath in Oswego county where there's probably a foot already from the existing band. The KBGM map looks more reasonable for the area and probably the lower end of ranges will be pretty close, based on past performance anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 3.5" of new snow, continues to snow heavy..Storm total so far 10.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTSSNOWFALL OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...PERRYSBURG 10.0 830 PM 2/10 COOP OBSERVER...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...1 N SHERMAN 9.0 130 PM 2/10 PUBLIC...ERIE COUNTY...EAST AURORA 8.0 615 PM 2/10 SNOW SPOTTERHAMBURG 4.0 630 PM 2/10 SOCIAL MEDIA...NIAGARA COUNTY...BARKER 7.0 320 PM 2/10 LAW ENFORCEMENTOLCOTT 7.0 130 PM 2/10 BROADCAST MEDIAWILSON 4.5 118 PM 2/10 PARK SERVICE...ORLEANS COUNTY...POINT BREEZE 8.0 310 PM 2/10 TRAINED SPOTTERLYNDONVILLE 7.0 312 PM 2/10 TRAINED SPOTTERWATERPORT 4.0 100 PM 2/10 PUBLIC...OSWEGO COUNTY...MINETTO 21.0 1030 PM 2/10 COCORAHSHASTINGS 16.0 845 PM 2/10 SOCIAL MEDIA1 N HASTINGS 15.0 920 PM 2/10 SNOW SPOTTERMEXICO 7.0 915 PM 2/10 SINCE 430 PMFULTON 7.0 500 PM 2/10 SOCIAL MEDIAHANNIBAL 5.0 355 PM 2/10 POST OFFICE...WYOMING COUNTY...ATTICA 8.0 725 PM 2/10 COOP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Ontario band has weakened considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Places in Oswego county will get 40"+ storm totals by Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Still going good here, probably 2 inch an hr stuff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Places in Oswego county will get 40"+ storm totals by Saturday evening. This intrigues me. About 0.2" falls before 7z: It's a very strange scenario, and I don't know what to make of it. We're back to riding the northern fringe of this band, but its snowing nonetheless. Radar suggests to me at least that this band may end up going a bit north over the next couple hours. I'm going to have a very busy/rough day ahead of me tomorrow but the possibility of watching another 8" or so fall is tempting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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