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Storm and Mood Snow Feb 8-11

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In the for what it's worth category, the NCAR ensemble seems to be headed towards a bi-modal snow distribution through 17 hours. ORH hills and SE MA for the members that have hits, but there are still a few clunkers in the bunch too.

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Also, as some others have mentioned ratios most likely will be much greater than 10:1. I'm gonna go with 15:1 for most areas, maybe a little less toward SE MA. So 0.4in in Lawrence will prob yield about 6in and 1in in Plymouth maybe 13in. 

 

Maybe a saving grace for the QPF queens on the NW edge. Forecast soundings suggest the DGZ could be quite deep if you factor in salt nuclei. Anytime you approach 300 mb deep, you're talking the potential for 20:1 being more likely. Of course, wind fracturing may negate that for much of the area, but again the farther from the low center and ocean the better. 

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I imagine Box will be shaving some from their map.

I don't see much support for their totals unless assuming very high ratios and/or mesoscale enhancement.

 

Wonder if they still would've gone with blizzard warnings after seeing 18z/0z data.

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In the for what it's worth category, the NCAR ensemble seems to be headed towards a bi-modal snow distribution through 17 hours. ORH hills and SE MA for the members that have hits, but there are still a few clunkers in the bunch too.

as others have mentioned, it looks like there could be a strong band along the n/w edge of the precip shield. between this and some orographic enhancement and I'd say around ORH could be a sneaky good spot. Looking at some of the meso model output ( rap, hrrr, 4 km NMM is very bullish) also show this potential. 

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Maybe a saving grace for the QPF queens on the NW edge. Forecast soundings suggest the DGZ could be quite deep if you factor in salt nuclei. Anytime you approach 300 mb deep, you're talking the potential for 20:1 being more likely. Of course, wind fracturing may negate that for much of the area, but again the farther from the low center and ocean the better. 

 

This could have some weird banding in it too...wouldn't shock me if someone got like 10"+ pretty far NW but someone east of them got less than half that.

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I imagine Box will be shaving some from their map.

I don't see much support for their totals unless assuming very high ratios and/or mesoscale enhancement.

 

Wonder if they still would've gone with blizzard warnings after seeing 18z/0z data.

 

I mean we're still talking at least a 1500 foot mixed layer, so even BOS will probably have no issue with frequent gusts to 35 mph. 

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This could have some weird banding in it too...wouldn't shock me if someone got like 10"+ pretty far NW but someone east of them got less than half that.

 

ARW members are definitely hinting at it.

 

But I agree, in situations like this where lift is a little more diffuse and not widespread over the area, you can get some weird jacks.

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I mean we're still talking at least a 1500 foot mixed layer, so even BOS will probably have no issue with frequent gusts to 35 mph. 

 

Winds I have no doubt... it's the snow rates I'm not sure will verify.

 

We'll see... 4z HRRR looked decent

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I mean we're still talking at least a 1500 foot mixed layer, so even BOS will probably have no issue with frequent gusts to 35 mph.

How would u feel about ratios with decent lift through the sgz but 30 knots sfc winds in st. Johns?

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How would u feel about ratios with decent lift through the sgz but 30 knots sfc winds in st. Johns?

 

Especially with a deep enough DGZ, I would say above climatological average. Start kicking the wind up anymore, and it's hard for me to really start thinking high ratio.

 

Then again, how do you really measure in those conditions anyway?  :twister:

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Wind is starting to howl in the Newburyport area. Just saw 2 am obs at Boston with gust to 38. Amazing with storm so far off shore and south. With these winds, even a little amount of snow will make visibility and travel difficult in the am.

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Wind is starting to howl in the Newburyport area. Just saw 2 am obs at Boston with gust to 38. Amazing with storm so far off shore and south. With these winds, even a little amount of snow will make visibility and travel difficult in the am.

 

its whistling way out here as well.

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4km not pretty

Neither is 7z HRRR

That Sunday 0z-12z guidance really head faked everyone, NWS and TV mets on down. Even David Epstein who's normally pretty conservative was chucking on Boston.com.

We'll see how mesoscale stuff unfolds.

First band of light rain kissing Nantucket right now.

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BOX adds Hartford and Tolland counties to the warnings for 4-8. And ups previous warned areas from 4-8 to 6-10 after being lowered from original 6-10. Gotta say with latest model trends overnight going the other way did not see that coming. I wonder what they're looking at :huh:

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No storm is not shifting eastward like the models are showing, it will pour snow here for a while.  Blizzard conditions likely as winds gusting to 55mph reach the Cape and Islands later this morning with the heaviest snowfall.

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No storm is not shifting eastward like the models are showing, it will pour snow here for a while.  Blizzard conditions likely as winds gusting to 55mph reach the Cape and Islands later this morning with the heaviest snowfall.

 

Already gusting to 53 mph at ACK.

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No storm is not shifting eastward like the models are showing, it will pour snow here for a while.  Blizzard conditions likely as winds gusting to 55mph reach the Cape and Islands later this morning with the heaviest snowfall.

 

There were a few models in there that were pretty precarious for western areas. No one is taking your snow, but farther west there are some concerns.

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There were a few models in there that were pretty precarious for western areas. No one is taking your snow, but farther west there are some concerns.

 

True I forgot about that.

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Neither is 7z HRRR

That Sunday 0z-12z guidance really head faked everyone, NWS and TV mets on down. Even David Epstein who's normally pretty conservative was chucking on Boston.com.

We'll see how mesoscale stuff unfolds.

First band of light rain kissing Nantucket right now.

Now S-. Bp now 28.99" at the Hatteras East buoy, with winds out of the west.

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