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Ralph Wiggum

January 22-23 Storm Threat

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Dryslot....too far north and east for us

This is a good run for our area, i don't care about the QPF we know the NAM is overdoing it with the north track, but maybe at least it is sniffing a trend North. I won't sweat dryslots on the NAM at this stage.

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this is why you don't even pay attention to the NAM outside 24 hours. It takes subtle convective nuances and turns them into different outcomes on a run to run basis outside of its useful 24hr window.

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This is a good run for our area, i don't care about the QPF we know the NAM is overdoing it with the north track, but maybe at least it is sniffing a trend North. I won't sweat dryslots on the NAM at this stage.

 

Give me a compromise of the northern hi-res models with the southern globals and I think PHL is in good shape.

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I am still unsure what all these models indicate as far as approximate start time.  I have a 6am hockey game on Saturday.....a day ago I thought it was a lock that it would be cancelled but now not so sure.

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this is why you don't even pay attention to the NAM outside 24 hours. It takes subtle convective nuances and turns them into different outcomes on a run to run basis outside of its useful 24hr window.

 

What different outcomes???

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If you compare the 12Z NAM with the 18Z NAM,   the closed 500mb low is at least 100 miles further north at 18Z.   I believe that was a big part of the difference which allowed this run to push that razor edge cutoff north.    Will be interesting to watch the 18Z GFS at 500mb to see if this it the start of something.

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What different outcomes???

Thinking same question. Aside from today's 18z any changes last 24 hours have been negligible on the NAM. And as expected, it is coming back to reality wrt snow totals.

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Most mets in both the MA and NY forums agree the NAM easily too far north by a good 50 miles or more.  It has no support at all there even from other hi res models.

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Snow map of 12k nam vs 4k nam is almost comical.

That's a good catch. It looks a lot like what we've seen from other morning models (aside from the NAM, of course).

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