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Ralph Wiggum

January 22-23 Storm Threat

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I am telling you, how many times in our many years of tracking storms in this area have Miller As done this only to trend north as we get closer to the event?  It has happened numerous times.  And with the warm waters off the coast and what I see as not a screaming suppression signal I have to believe this will come north yet again.

 

If I am wrong, so be it....

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I am telling you, how many times in our many years of tracking storms in this area have Miller As done this only to trend north as we get closer to the event?  It has happened numerous times.  And with the warm waters off the coast and what I see as not a screaming suppression signal I have to believe this will come north yet again.

 

If I am wrong, so be it....

It's certainly possible .... The oft worshipped 1996 storm was just like that for the Lehigh Valley.   I can remember 24 hours before the event I was extremely aggravated by the forecasts for 1 to 2 inches and a miss to the south.     It seems for the big ones, we always have to flirt with danger (i.e. either a complete miss or a change to rain/sleet).

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Can we bring back the weenie tags and give Wiggum 2?

Im fine with your opinion, but why? Because I am showing some concern? Its not like I'm making stuff up and pulling misinformation out of thin air. I've provided facts, maps, etc. Anyone who is going to sit there and say the threat is as good or better than 48 hours ago is lying to themselves and other members of this forum. Yes, there is some data still suggesting a big hit, I'm not saying there isn't, but there has been a clear shift away from the unanimous overwhelming agreement we had 48 hours ago for a Nesis 4 or even 5 event. 

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I am telling you, how many times in our many years of tracking storms in this area have Miller As done this only to trend north as we get closer to the event?  It has happened numerous times.  And with the warm waters off the coast and what I see as not a screaming suppression signal I have to believe this will come north yet again.

 

If I am wrong, so be it....

 

This is what I have observed as well, but when I stated this earlier it was quickly dismissed.  It will jog back north a bit, sometimes a LOT, then corrects itself to a happy medium. 

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Im fine with your opinion, but why? Because I am showing some concern? Its not like I'm making stuff up and pulling misinformation out of thin air. I've provided facts, maps, etc. Anyone who is going to sit there and say the threat is as good or better than 48 hours ago is lying to themselves and other members of this forum. Yes, there is some data still suggesting a big hit, I'm not saying there isn't, but there has been a clear shift away from the unanimous overwhelming agreement we had 48 hours ago for a Nesis 4 or even 5 event. 

we kid because we love...you're good, dude

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Now I fully expect the 18Z GFS to come North with 2-3' totals in SEPA  :sled:

 

I believe it was Paul (ChescoWx) that said this would happen. Unanimous overwhelming agreement thru Tuesday (today) then a shift South. Textbook with big storms. Now we await the Northward adjustment.

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12z para gfs map...but a significant storm is off the table lol

 

GFS-PARA_QPFtotal_ne4_f144.png?v=1453236

What is the word on the para ECM I think I heard in a month or two it will replace the current model. WOW

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What is the word on the para ECM I think I heard in a month or two it will replace the current model. WOW

it didn't update yesterday and hasn't yet today that I've seen. it's been inconsistent in it's operation.

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it didn't update yesterday and hasn't yet today that I've seen. it's been inconsistent in it's operation.

What about the para-GFS? I dont honestly know much about it. Reliable? Will it replace the current GFS OP?

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Negligible difference on the 18Z GFS vs 12Z thru 7hrs. Maybe a hair farther South but again, negligible. Doesnt appear like it will have a wild swing one way or the other this run at this juncture.

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how's that 2 feet on the gfs working out for you?  a long way to go here, let's try not canceling anything this far out, especially given the amazing signal for a storm.

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how's that 2 feet on the gfs working out for you?  a long way to go here, let's try not canceling anything this far out, especially given the amazing signal for a storm.

Tough call til tomorrow at least. On one hand you have the mighty Euro ticking South and wanting no parts of what the GFS is dishing out, on the other hand you have the GFS which has ultimately been more consistent still showing a big hit. Really tough call at this stage still. All options clearly still on the table tho. 

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Clearly farther North than the Euro with ULL:

gfs_z500_mslp_us_15.png

 

 

VS

 

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png

dam I was just pondering putting this together.....thanks for saving me some time :)

 

Until you see it side by side the significance (distance) can get lost in translation. WOW

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