OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 That's about as perfect a track as you want to see, If we had some blocking for this one and it was slower we would measure in feet. Right now, Not a lot of support being this cold on other guidance, But I certainly don't mind it's the Euro that has this solution, EPS has been pretty steady for several runs now as well, We will see if others models start trending colder EPS is pretty meaty with snowfall amounts, even close to the coast here at GYX. Today especially we'll tickle into the range of the hi-res guidance, so that should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Actually by the top of the hour we should have the NCAR ensemble in through at least the first part of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 EPS is pretty meaty with snowfall amounts, even close to the coast here at GYX. Today especially we'll tickle into the range of the hi-res guidance, so that should be interesting. It was a little troubling seeing the 0z RGEM being so warm right to the foothills, That was a pretty big ice signal, But it was still just getting in range so we will see what today brings as you say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Actually by the top of the hour we should have the NCAR ensemble in through at least the first part of the event. I'm on my phone and am limited to the maps, I don't know how much access you have at the WFO on the Euro, But I think I remember when I was there with Ginx, Eck said it wasn't good, But am curios to what the Euro is seeing that the others are not for it to be cold upstairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm on my phone and am limited to the maps, I don't know how much access you have at the WFO on the Euro, But I think I remember when I was there with Ginx, Eck said it wasn't good, But am curios to what the Euro is seeing that the others are not for it to be cold upstairs Well we have far more access than the typical pay site, but for instance our "hi-res" version is 90 km despite the fact that the model is actually like 13 km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 EPS still bullish. Particularly Maine. Certainly the coldest and most agressive of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It's definitely a marginal air mass in the mid levels, but still below freezing. As the low gets cranking, as Will said earlier in the thread, and the CCB tries to develop the column actually cools pretty dramatically. It's not a huge signal for a deformation band, but it tries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 EPS has a very tiny probability for Dendrite to Dryslot getting over 32 degrees. Nice swath of mean 6 inches in 24 hours from the Lakes Region through all of western ME basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Thinking the Coastal areas of Central to So. ME experience mainly Rain this time around somewhat similar to what just occurred with the last system! Think I may have picked a not so good area to pick up substantial snows at least until Late Jan-Through February including March. Still a long ways to go this season but its looking more and more likely that we don't even get to average this season up here, snowfall wise! To be honest, I haven't got a clue but I think I should have moved a few yrs back as I would of experienced some incredible seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Thinking the Coastal areas of Central to So. ME experience mainly Rain this time around somewhat similar to what just occurred with the last system! Think I may have picked a not so good area to pick up substantial snows at least until Late Jan-Through February including March. Still a long ways to go this season but its looking more and more likely that we don't even get to average this season up here, snowfall wise! To be honest, I haven't got a clue but I think I should have moved a few yrs back as I would of experienced some incredible seasons. It's probably pretty close to unavoidable that you mix at some point, but models are definitely showing a greater chance of sub-freezing surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I enhanced our temp color curve to accentuate this image, but here's the RGEM at 18z Saturday. Not that warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I enhanced our temp color curve to accentuate this image, but here's the RGEM at 18z Saturday. rgem.jpeg Not that warm at the surface. No its defintely not that warm, so chances are increasing to see at least a majority of this system as frozen, so lets see what today's Hi Res models do with this system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm in your camp, 1-2 with lolli's of 3" due to mixing, but that could very well change so on to the 12Z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 No its defintely not that warm, so chances are increasing to see at least a majority of this system as frozen, so lets see what today's Hi Res models do with this system! I would say frozen or freezing. Doesn't really look like a sleet system, with lower levels being the warmest versus near 700 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I would post to show the comparison, but the European Centers are already touchy about the NWS using their data. So I'll just have to describe instead. 12z Saturday the Euro is very much offshore with the 850 mb freezing line. The GFS is about 50 miles further NW. That's the difference we're talking about here, it's really less than a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The Euro is definitely out there on its own, a good 3oC cooler than the NAM12, RGEM, or GFS at 925 along the coast up here. One thing it may be on to is the dynamic cooling of the column as heavy precip moves in between 12 and 18z. ARW and NMM are warm at 12z, but show significant cooling at 925 by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Total snow from 00Z Euro. Coldest of all the models suites so far. Lets see if it sticks with todays 12Z suite! I for one am not in this camp especially due to my proximity to the immediate coastline which is 2 miles to my East! Nice Jackson jackpot there and fun times for our Maine brethren. No way I get the 4-6 it's peddling though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The Euro is definitely out there on its own, a good 3oC cooler than the NAM12, RGEM, or GFS at 925 along the coast up here. One thing it may be on to is the dynamic cooling of the column as heavy precip moves in between 12 and 18z. ARW and NMM are warm at 12z, but show significant cooling at 925 by 18z. That's the layer that concerns me...H9-H92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Nice Jackson jackpot there and fun times for our Maine brethren. No way I get the 4-6 it's peddling though. Yeah. I don't buy that for our areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 BOX's AFD is primarily riding the GFS. Their max map below tilts a little bit toward that Euro map. Other than that, just let the year ride. 21.0/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Funny. Euro would end as paste in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah. I don't buy that for our areasRide that Euro horse to the coast, intense dynamic storm on the Euro 24 hrs out. I would definitely not discount it. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 How much qpf is the Euro putting out? I'm hoping my glacier doesn't melt. Since it held out in last weekends warm rains, maybe I'll survive to keep my lawn icy for another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Funny. Euro would end as paste in Boston. Would end as paste for a lot of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ride that Euro horse to the coast, intense dynamic storm on the Euro 24 hrs out. I would definitely not discount it. Congrats Beware the warm tongue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ride that Euro horse to the coast, intense dynamic storm on the Euro 24 hrs out. I would definitely not discount it. Congrats While I'm clueless about things all the time, the interaction of the two lows is really bewildering me. While the high points in western MA may pick up a few inches, I'm thinking that central Mass--from Hubby north might score a coup and pick up a few inches. Between those two areas and east of 190 gets the goose egg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 How much qpf is the Euro putting out? I'm hoping my glacier doesn't melt. Since it held out in last weekends warm rains, maybe I'll survive to keep my lawn icy for another week. Our base here became Swiss cheese last weekend. It still had some coverage but this week's events have given us wintery appeal I will miss come the Patriots game Wiz is calling for 1-3" of rain. I don't see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Our base here became Swiss cheese last weekend. It still had some coverage but this week's events have given us wintery appeal I will miss come the Patriots game Wiz is calling for 1-3" of rain. I don't see that He is? Where's that coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Beware the warm tongueits a dynamic situation,blue bombs away on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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