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Two Clipper System's Jan 11-14th Disco/OBS


dmc76

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I am pumped for this clipper. Not many places do better than my area when it comes to a SW/Southerly flow ahead of a clipper giving lake enhancement, and then the NW lake effect that comes after. I'm usually in the "pivot point" and can cash in very nicely! One of the reasons I believe my specific area averages more snow than the 94-100" Muskegon averages just a few miles away. Regardless, the whole Muskegon area here in West Michigan does awesome in these events. Can't wait!

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Nah clipper is decently strong with some good mid level lapse rates, I wouldn't be shocked if it is a 2-4" type system. I don't buy the NAM's track though, it isn't going to be that far north and I expect shifts south as we go forward.

 

I noticed that's one of its biases wrt to clippers in the 48hr+ time period the last 5-7 years or so.

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Nah clipper is decently strong with some good mid level lapse rates, I wouldn't be shocked if it is a 2-4" type system

 

MAYBE in a narrow area IF a decent frontogenesis band sets up for some time.

 

But otherwise, it's moisture starved, too progressive and lacks large scale forcing (unimpressive Omega values).

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MAYBE in a narrow area IF a decent frontogenesis band sets up for some time.

 

But otherwise, it's moisture starved, too progressive and lacks large scale forcing (unimpressive Omega values).

Have to remember it is going to be cold as well, ratios will play up.

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Have to remember it is going to be cold as well, ratios will play up.

 

I hate using the ratio card, because that's really all dependent on whether the best "forcing" and "moisture" intersects the DGZ. Models have a hard time predicting the aforementioned.

 

If the best moisture or forcing ends up overshooting the DGZ (and they typically do with clippers), then you end up with Pixie Dust or Domino Sugar. 

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I hate using the ratio card, because that's really all dependent on whether the best "forcing" and "moisture" intersects the DGZ. Models have a hard time predicting the aforementioned.

 

If the best moisture or forcing ends up overshooting the DGZ (and they typically do with clippers), then you end up with Pixie Dust or Domino Sugar. 

We'll see, I have a bit more confidence that this will produce a decent 2-4" for the area.

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